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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    The image below shows how long many hours it takes for a watch box to verify after it's issued. Note the clear correlation between watch probability in the antecedent MCD and number of watch boxes that verify within 2.5 hours of issuance. FWIW, the meso I posted above is 60%.
  2. Eskimo Joe
  3. Eskimo Joe
    NAM twins putting a decent UHI track in the Frederick/Carroll county tornado zone. EDIT: HRRR giving some UHI love to Frederick / Carroll / Howard / Baltimore counties.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    HRRR is more encouraging for us this afternoon. Would be a standard slight risk day.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    The last couple of frames of the visible satellite leaves some room for optimism for those of us in the slight risk area. The 12z RAOB from Sterling indicated a convective temp of 79° and we're starting to see a few 80°+ values pop up. If we can get into the lows 80s then perhaps things can work out better for us.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    2/15/0 on the afternoon SWODY1 update.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    NAMNEST still really likes tomorrow as well.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    HRRR with the Montgomery County jackpot today.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Sterling seems pretty bullish about tomorrow. Curious as to what they are seeing to make them so.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Pfft, EF-8 or bust.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    We're all getting slabbed on Friday.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    This is the kind of weather to do yard work in. Amazing.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    I took a deeper look at the NAM twins for tomorrow. They clear out Virginia south of I-66 and up into northern Carroll / Baltimore counties which causes some better surface instability. No surprise that's where the better sim radar returns are progged for tomorrow. Hopefully it's wrong and we all get a repeat of last week.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like Friday is our day. SPC has us in their 'meh' category so maybe this is our annual surprise event?
  15. Eskimo Joe
    NAMNEST really likes the upper level energy swinging through on Friday, and focuses a couple of UHI tracks over the heart of the metro area. That is not an impossible scenario.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Pre-event clouds and showers.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    We're past the spring climo for good severe weather in these parts. Unless something happens quick, we're probably waiting for tropical season. Last week was probably the event of the spring.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    06z GFS has some weak tropical-esque system coming right up the Chesapeake around HR 340.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    06z NAM is disappointing unless you're in Carroll and Baltimore counties.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    So what you're saying is that my house is gonna get slabbed?
  21. Eskimo Joe
    FWIW, the 12z NAMNEST is hot garbage for everyone for Thursday.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    YESSS
  23. Eskimo Joe
    I lost my first round of direct sow zinneas and sunflowers from rain the other week. This has been a frustrating year for the garden.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Good. My tomatoes aren't liking this weather.
  25. Eskimo Joe
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