Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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lol...GFS tries to push +26 air over everyone again on Wednesday. Would be an utter torch.
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12z GFS has 23 degree air at 850 on Saturday, but Sunday it really ups the ante regionwide. Near 25 degree airmass moves over. If there isn't convection to cut out the sun, it's entirely BWI, DCA, and IAD all hit 100.
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Cool. We'll be 45 and rain instead of 52 and rain. Baby steps!
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That place is in a league of it's own.
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00z IAD sounding will tell the tale then!
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It's definitely warmer this morning. Even the mesonet stations in Maryland, which are placed in open areas away from UHI effects, only dropped into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees last night.
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We can't get AI to answer a question right on a car dealership website. I won't trust numerical model guidance that's AI-based for a long time.
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Yea it looks more likely now.
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850 temps appear a tick warmer regionwide on the 00z GFS and Canadian. At 23c for IAD and DCA, with a SW wind, that would support a legit run at 100 degrees.
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It's taken decades to invest in flood resilient infrastructure. Our society is so terribly backwards we won't have a semblance of heat resiliency until our generation is in a nursing home.
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Friday through Sunday now look like legit heat.
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lol we can't even score with heat anymore. This place is an absolute desert for interesting weather.
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The ridge axis in 2012 was further south across Kentucky to the Carolinas. As a result, our area was in a more favorable area for EMLs to advect east, and to steer mid level impulses into said EML in our area. You can see that on the Wilmington, OH sounding (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/20120629/soundings/12062918_SNDG/). There was 6,800 SBCAPE ahead of that with a mid level lapse rate of over 8°c/km! We are almost assured to not be even in the ball park this time.
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Another summer, another drought.
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Yes I agree. Historically our big heat waves occur when you have strong high pressure situated from Kentucky to Bermuda.
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If you want excessive heat, then you want to be on the north or northwest side of this high. That maximizes the warm air advection.
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That's a bit of a hyperbole. There's no indication this is going to be an oven of a summer.
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If we could repeat last night's rain for a week that'd be awesome.
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M0.02" we just got grazed.
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We need the rain. I'm glad we had some showers and that I was incorrect.
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Oh nice!
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We're definitely going to slide back into a drought here shortly.
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The 20z HRRR is insistent on some ridge crawlers running east through the metros after 8pm this evening. Based off satellite, Id say that isn't happening. The CU field is just fading away.
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