This is totally not a weenie post, but so far there's some decent stuff firing over the I-81 corridor and there's several tornado warnings in NE North Carolina. I wonder if the western edge of the precip shield ends up being a tad further west and more robust than what the globals are showing.
Even though Elsa looks ragged on satellite and radar, it's a gulf storm. We've seen time and time again where storms go into the gulf bathwater and either spin up or can fight off relatively hostile conditions.
It has nothing to do with national airspace. The Hurricane Hunters prefer to fly over water because there is less turbulence than compared to land. This allows for better recon data.