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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Latest SPC mesoanalysis has between 500 - 100 SBCAPE tongue ahead of the main line up from NOVA into Gettysburg. I know @Ian has posted in the past about how sneaky these ribbons of SBCAPE can in environments like this.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Nice SigTor parameters building in across NOVA and even a bit into Frederick County.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    I'm...somewhat more intrigued about our potential today. Over/under for LWX CWA: TORs issued: 5, 2 confirmed when it's over SVRs issued: 24 FFW issued: 6
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Decent clearing behind this first line. Would definitely help with any progged afternoon activity.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Taking a look at visible satellite, it's pretty clear the CHO storm is the main player with this first line. You can see it bubbling up compared to the low stratus clouds elsewhere.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    SPC issues Mesoscale Discussion #934: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2022/md0934.html
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Definitely sounds like a tornado occurred in Bedford, VA.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    I have a feeling that Lynchburg cell is going to produce another TOR today. It seems to be coupled right with the warm front.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    I'd be surprised if we get that. We'd need more sun to get the updrafts rooted to the surface. 10% TOR on SWODY1 = ENH.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Secondary action appears to be over central Kentucky. If we get clearing it's behind this lead stuff then we get the next line with the cold front.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. Today is going to be a weird day. That TOR cell SW of Lynchburg has the Frederick Tornado Zone™ written all over it. Took a quick look at the SPOC archives and I agree.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    After sunrise but before noon. Sometimes when we get these remnant showers/weak storms entering early on a day progged for severe weather they have just enough juice left to spark a rogue weak tornado or some other kind of pre-game action.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Keep an eye on those cells in western NC. They've been having some tendency to spin. We might get a few early AM tors.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Yea tomorrow has sporadic, but significant flash flooding all over it.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Tomorrow seems so dicey. Leaning towards a meh, but hopefully we can get a W.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Two decent events in April 2011: April 16, 2011: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110416 April 27, 2011: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110427
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Best thing to do is walk away from this for 24 hours and remain emotionally disinvested. Check back with the 06z update on Friday and wait for the first few visible satellite images before committing.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Cat 3 into Point Lookout, then hook left into IAD. Stall it there for 18 hours then loop it back due east slowly or this season's a bust.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    NWS has been doing that for some time. It's incumbent on the spotter to let them know of your new address.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    For the past few years it seems the axis is heavy precip from summertime mid latitude cyclones has been to trend further north and east in the 12-24 hours leading up to the event.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    It's worthless without the PNA though.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    We do well with CAPE that's elevated in these parts. Given the increased amount of urban infrastructure, the nocturnal stratiform rain is better for the waterways. Less thermal shock, less chance of flash flooding.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Sitting at Ott House in Emmittsburg and it definitely has //that feel// up here.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Headed to Cumberland for the weekend. Surprised at the red box. Hopefully I catch something in the mountains.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Woke up to clouds and rain. Lololol
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