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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    MCS events have a tendency to be progged by short term guidance too far NE of where they occur. Last night was a perfect example of this. The 00z NAM had convection going over the UP of Michigan and Green Bay, yet the initiation and main body of the storm was well to the west.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    I'm in New Windsor today. I woke up to fog, but it's since burned off and we have nothing but blue overhead. I'm not worried about the low level stuff along I-95 today, it's the mid/high level leftover crapvection that's near Pittsburgh. If that can die off then we're golden.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Check out the morning visible satellite loop on weather.cod.edu. You can see the low level flow is S - SW, while it's NW - N aloft. Going to be an interesting day for some, definitely would rather be from Baltimore SW into Fredericksburg/ Winchester for this.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    One thing to remembers, the CAMS yesterday were way off on the placement and severity of the line in Wisconsin. The activity developed further SW than progged so we'll have to watch how thing play out in OH, WV, and western PA around midday. Still, this is looking like a solid SLGT/ENH day. Good shear and a strong fropa in the middle of summer, not something you see every day.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    DY1 ENH...and it doesn't looks like *too* much cloudiness this morning. LFG!!!
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  9. Eskimo Joe
    It's good to be clear eyed in this part of the country. We have so many small scale features that can disrupt things.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Read LWX AFD again regarding CAMS. They'll shift 1,000 times through noon tomorrow and it'll drive you insane. If we're socked in at 11am tomorrow, then we'll know to just shrug the event off as another L.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    I've learned to accept the SVR and Winter climo of the area.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    If we don't get blanketed with debris clouds overnight, I could see SPC nudging the northern portion of the LWX CWA up into Central PA to and ENH risk.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    I'm aware of the drama surrounding it. On the bigger heat days it seems whatever boost that may occur is muted compared to days when you're looking to scrape out a 90.
  14. Eskimo Joe
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Got to 96 in Reisterstown yesterday. For all the gird over BWI's temp sensor, it's not out to lunch.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    There certainly is a risk for some wet microbursts today. Out Total Totals are pushing 50 and the low level lapse rates are pretty robust. Could see a few decent terrain based storms.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Cecil, Harford, and Dorchester counties in Maryland had rogue 500 year floods this week too. It's like the atmosphere just wants to dump rain in small areas and leave everyone else dry.
  18. Eskimo Joe

    Winter 2021-22

    Eskimo Joe replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Don't forget the angle of the moon. Nothing worse than temps rising at night.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    About what time?
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Yea the EPS and OP GFS is MCS/ climo for sure. Would be nice to bake for a few days, this summer has been too cold, but hey, maybe that's a sign we're gonna have some good blocking setting up this winter?
  21. Eskimo Joe
    600dm or bust
  22. Eskimo Joe
    That actually happens a lot in these parts. In Taneytown the other month 4 acres of cut grass caught on fire because of spontaneous combustion while it lay drying in the field.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    @mappy here comes your storm from Adams County.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    We have solid lapse rates, shear and instability. Even the mid level lapse rates aren't terrible and that's a chronic thing we have going against us in these parts. Don't think it's going to be a lot of aerial coverage, but those who get a storm could get clocked pretty well.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md1323.html I'm kinda of interested about the potential today. EDIT: This has Delmarva jackpot written all over it.
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