Eskimo Joe

It's a machine learning account that pulls from the short term meso guidance. Still an uncalibrated account but something worth peeking at, IMO.

I-83 jackpot

Cell near orange is starting to put CG down and getting a bit of a kidney bean look.

Everyone pour one out for the SPC servers that are getting killed by all the weenies hitting F5 on their keyboards.

Pretty early to be meso'd, but yesterday there were confirmed tornadoes from showers that produced almost no lightning. Looks like our chance for local tor/spinnies is the activity that's currently south of I-64.

Inb4 he says a tornado blew all his rain away.

NAM, HRRR, RAP all seem to have several discrete cells push through tomorrow during prime heating.

Looks like it wants to start pouring along the I-83 corridor got some decent towers going up to my east.

Looks like the warm sector with Fred's remnants is producing. Already two reported tornados and the supercell composite along the GA/SC border is pushing 8.

Big breaks in the clouds now in Reisterstown. Actually seeing thinning of the mid level cloud deck.

Looks like a possible training event setting up over Baltimore City into Towson and then east to White Marsh. I gotta give credit to LWX, they've been money on these flash flood watches of late.

Yea last few frames of the visible showing some decent clearing even back to I-81 now. This is being confirmed by some of the ASOS station showing the ceiling jumping up over the past ~30 min.

Flash Flood Watch for coastal bay counties through 6pm this evening. LWX mentioned the convergence zone in causing this in their AFD update.

Visible satellite suggests areas along and east of I-95 could see sun today. Might help destabilize the atmosphere a bit more.

Tomorrow screams surprise severe

Not banter so not putting it there, but former TWC met dead:

M0.59" Reisterstown. I'm right by the PBS station off Owings Mills Blvd.

Frederick County, MD about to get flooded out.

If you want a quick setup, I recommend the Tempest from WxFlow

Looks like 12z Euro brings the 850 low with Fred through HGR. Would be a Wednesday afternoon to evening issue, actually looks like the brunt of the remnants come through during prime heating.

Rekt

IMO, SPC is smart to not highlight at D3 for this area. A subtle shift of 50 miles in the track is a big deal for downstream impacts. For the next couple of days, I would argue it's worthwhile to look upstream at these items: 1.) Location of flooding and heavy rain versus the forecast placement. 2.) Location of severe weather, tornadic activity in particular, versus the forecast placement. 3.) Overall expanse of the warm sector and whether it's dirty or big breaks in the clouds. 4.) Speed of the system.

Wednesday could be a sneaky overperforming event for us.

Yes. Was expecting Fred to be further west of where it is now. Could be a conditional tornado risk Wed into Thursday.