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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Was wondering why there was so little precip on the NW side then saw this thread. Wonder if this will impact rainfall forecasts inland?
  2. Eskimo Joe
  3. Eskimo Joe
    You know it'll hit anywhere but here. Probably will occur in the elevated terrain in the Laurel Highlands.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Oh damn, I'm so owned. How will I ever recover from this?
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Nam is not to be used for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Joelsh and potentially Joey Krastel (@NimbusStorms)
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Less than 18. Clock is ticking.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Don't feed the troll.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Could be equipment failure.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Good to know wrt antecedent size or the cyclone.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Going to go out on a limb and say Ida fights pockets of dry air that prevent it from achieving Cat 4 or 5 status. It's running out of time before it begins interacting with the continental airmass. I'm very interested to see if any buoys get close to the center tonight and see what the wave height and winds are. Would give us a clue as to the potential storm surge.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    JB consistently makes dubious posts and spins hyperbole. I'm still waiting for the 12" - 18" he promised me last winter in the NW Baltimore suburbs.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Hospital refueling contracts are redundant. There shouldn't be a problem. The big issue is extended loss of clean, potable water. In a situation like that, you get water delivered in intervals of about 8,000 gallons and the delivery process is to last long enough for the hospital to depopulate.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Beautiful combo. We fail on an I storm and it breaks down the NAO just in time for us to transition into autumn.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Max Sustained: 130 Max Sustained at landfall: 110 Landfall pressure: 975 Landfall location: Port Fourchon
  16. Eskimo Joe
    FEMA USAR Task Forces are already being staged and their utility operations support headed down yesterday. FEMA didn't break on their hurricane response coordination during the 2017 and 2018 years...this storm won't break it.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    To be clear, I am not discounting the need for targeted evacuations, just the timing and location. Evacuations are costly both for the agencies supporting and the residents who relocate. Some businesses will not allow their employees to take unscheduled leave for something that, in their eyes may or may not happen. Thus, some of the most vulnerable people will roll the dice and not evacuate because they simply cannot afford to lose their jobs.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Sterling's updated short term AFD is...interesting:
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like we got a DY1 Slight Risk now.
  21. Eskimo Joe
  22. Eskimo Joe
    https://twitter.com/COweatherman/status/1431246028842291200?s=20
  23. Eskimo Joe
    GFS dives Ida' remnants well south of us, which is on par with climo. We lose again.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    NAMs love Fairfax / Prince Georges / Charles county for storms this afternoon. HRRR gives the lover to Mason-Dixon. RAP eats paste.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Looks to be only about 2" - 4" over the course of 12 hours during peak summer. Not sure that would cause anything significant other than flooding in the usual spot. Maybe it'll trend upward, but so far the tropical remnants have been duds up here the past couple of years.
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