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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    89 here.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Yea this is looking like more and more of a bust in the severe department. Too many things getting mis-timed.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR, while at range, is an absolute snooze fest for severe across the board. We get multiple rounds of strong showers after some early crapvection ruins the afternoon potential. The upside is that we all get at least a half inch of much needed rain.
  4. Eskimo Joe
  5. Eskimo Joe
    That nado cast goes 15% over DC -> Baltimore tomorrow. . . .
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Split the difference, put an ENH with a 30% wind and 5% TOR on the SWODY1 tomorrow and see how it plays out.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    That seems. . . .aggressive. While it was accurate for the 5% TOR over DC, it missed the other 4 areas it forecast for tornadoes. As a result, it ended up with a 20% accuracy rate nationally.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    We'd need everything to come together perfectly tomorrow for that. I'm more worried now about debris clouds from the midwest just holding us in the mid 80s tomorrow and we don't event get any storms at all.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    GFS appears to have lost the EML plume. 12z NAM is pretty meh for severe weather chances. Looks like a standard Slight Risk day might be shaping up.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    People probably worried about a derecho.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Just like that everything falls apart. Lol.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Imagine if we got a redux of winter 2010-2011. I'd sign in a skinny minute.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    18z GFS appears to advect a piece of an EML directly across us underneath a belt of 75 kt winds. That, plus some better timing, would lead to a solid severe weather day in these parts. Still, we're over two days away and a lot can go wrong. Additionally, today's 12z and 18z operational GFS develop a surface low in the lee of the Appalachian Mts. This combined with the other features I just mention, could offset the normal mesoscale issues that plague our severe weather chances in this part.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Wednesday has potential
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Wednesday could be a decent ENH day if the timing works out. The dynamics aren't too bad and there will be a respectable amount of surface instability.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. As far as a late June day in DC goes, this is going to be nice.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    That's not rotation, it's a collapse of the updraft resulting in a modest downburst.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    College Park and Baltimore Inner Harbor also at or above 90.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    IAD has really gotten warm in the past decade. Really shows how much the UHI has expanded west.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Westminster hit 102. We likely turn it up a notch tomorrow.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    You know it's a warm day when Camp David hits the 90s.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    My parents house is too old for AC.....
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Back in Philly for the weekend helping my mom. It's 99° in the shade in Roxborough. Had a storm graze us juuuust enough to spike the humidity to Florida levels.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Waldorf mesonet site hit 99°.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Double lol...12z GFS 2m temps are 100+ from BWI down the EZF. Absolute torch Sunday.
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