Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Nocturnal TVS approaching EWR. Unreal event and it stings that DC missed it by just a few hours.
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Yea. That's a top 10 tornado outbreak for them. Twice in one year for Mt. Holly WFO. Holy moley.
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Confirmed tornado Federalsburg, MD per law enforcement.
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Rain, wind, or both?
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Stuff along I-81 is running out of time to get it's act together.
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Last chance for anything is that little segment pushing through Front Royal.
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KNAK reported fair or partly cloudy conditions for about 4 hours. That appears to be enough to let storms get rooted in surface instability: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNAK.html
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Ivan, 2005. There was one other event that I can't recall off the top of my head.
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Cell of the day. Edgewater, MD per comments.
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Cells east of DC probably robbing all the inflow for those west of I-95.
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Pretty solid tornado risk across Delmarva, IMO. If one were to attempt a chase, that's the place to be.
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This system seems to be moving quicker than originally forecast. It looks like the best chance for a brief spin up from I-95 west will be with that cluster of cells near CHO.
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We're socked in with clouds pretty good. I'm not discounting a watch box later today or a brief spinny west of the bay, but I'm not enthused at the risk for a bigger tor in the immediate DC metro area.
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I think the tornado risk west of the bay is pretty marginal. Any chance of a decent TOR is probably across Delmarva or S NJ.
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Up there, it's likely a Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE) and there's even some weak rotation on those cells. They're going to jackpot on flooding and maybe even the tornado potential up there. I'm considering heading up there tomorrow. Going to be a memorable event in the mountains.
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The Schuylkill River is tidal from the Art Museum dam and below. Grew up in Roxborough and know the river and Wissahickon Creek well. -
Central PA - Summer 2021
Eskimo Joe replied to Itstrainingtime's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
High risk of flooding per WPC for you all tomorrow. I am insanely jealous of what's about to unfold across S Central PA tomorrow. Going to be one for the record books for some. Already a good PRE ongoing across Somerset, Bedford, Fulton, and Franklin counties with even some weak spin. Seriously enjoy this, going to be a storm worth studying once all is said and done. -
It's all contingent on us breaking out into sunshine to build surface instability. We don't do that well in these parts.
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D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts.
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It's a complete disaster.
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12z NAM is ugly. Dry, cloudy. Would be a complete bust.
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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I've been burned twice this summer. Hopefully I'm wrong and we get slammed, it's been years since we've had a decent remnants system in Baltimore/DC proper. I will say that if I'm from US 15 west in Maryland, or the WV panhandle there could be some decent rainfall totals aided by terrain so someone out west of here could be in for a fun day tomorrow. -
The color ramp looks like WPC's QPF map for D1-3.
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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Not really sold on this. I'll see what things look like tomorrow morning, but the whole system looks pretty progressive. -
2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
Eskimo Joe replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yea. It stings watching us miss out on another good event, but Tomer is a damn good met and his website is amazing.
