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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    $20 says we get nada this year
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Man the CAMs have blown chunks the past week.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Watching this weekend from sunny San Diego. Enjoy the derecho and tornado swarm!
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Naw i just want rain. Only M0.15" overnight.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Fairfax getting rocked. Legit 50 - 60 kt cores showing up just off the surface.
  6. Eskimo Joe
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Leesburg gusted to 43 mph.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    M40 mph wind gust at the Keedysville mesonet site.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    The 00z balloon from IAD shows only 600 j/kg of SBCAPE. This is in no way a "classic" severe weather sounding.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Still about 1,000 j/kg of DCAPE. Maybe we get a few wind reports. Watch seems justified, iMO.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming until midnight.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Front Royal just gusted to 47 kts.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. I just want a steady, soaking rain over several hours.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like the only chance for rain in the metro is that cluster coming out of West Virginia.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Same. I'm legit worried we get a dry frontal passage. It looks like the CAMs absolutely blew chunks on this entire setup.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Pity meso for DC and points northeast https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1429.html
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like our shot at storms is starting to take shape over Central West Virginia.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    lol...are BWI and DCA going to hit 100° today?
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like upstate PA is the place to be. Euro is pretty dry in these parts for the evening.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    The aggressive CAMs appear to have some sort of Round 1 initiation along I-81 around 3:30 pm. That's my benchmark to see how things are breaking today. If we get to say 4:30 and there's nada, then we can probably expect a benign evening.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    HRRR overmixing bias strikes again. It's also too low on the CAPE as well. Looks like a outlier.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like a severe thunderstorm watch going out to our NW in PA and Ohio?
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Latest SPC meso-analysis shows respectable mini EML from DC north into southern PA, and also a boundary of DCAPE from I-70 south. This looks like a day where some big cell goes across Parr's Ridge and everyone else waits for the main show after sunset.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like some initiation is starting in SW West Virginia per visible satellite.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    The latest SPC meson analysis definitely shows a weak EML, with mid level lapse rates trying to touch 7°c/km, plenty of DCAPE, and Total Totals are already pushing 50 near DC. But there's just no real shear to move things along. The morning balloon out of IAD has a convective temp of 94°, and mid level lapse rates of 7.2c/km. All in all, probably enough for several rounds of thunderstorms regionwide today, perhaps a few decent updrafts. it wouldn't shock me if SPC introduced a 30% wind in the area, but I would argue that would be from DC and points north where there's slightly better upper level support. I'd gladly take the rain though. Our mesonet stations show the 2" and 5" soil moisture values are crispy. EDIT: RNK and PIT soundings show a bit of an EML too.
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