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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    FWIW, the experimental HREF from SPC has us socked in with low level clouds tomorrow morning, but they seem to burn off by 11am. The guidance that is most aggressive with convection tomorrow seems to have two things in common: 1.) Clouds burn off by 10am - 12pm. 2.) Minimal mid and high level debris clouds from tonight's convection. If we wake up to a favorable visible satellite tomorrow, I do believe that we will realize a solid ENH to maybe low level MOD risk day. My thinking is entirely hinged on the ability of strong sunshine sustaining itself so storms can root to the surface and realize the low level instability. That would help us maximize the best helicity and shear. It would not surprise me to see a few tornadoes tomorrow, especially east of I-95 where storms can take advantage of the typical mesoscale boundaries near Chesapeake Bay. Flooding is not something I am terribly worried about. Storm motion seems rather progressive and it's been dry the past two weeks.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    According to the IEMbot archives, only 6/13/2013 was the other time that a portion of Maryland was under a 45% Day 2 wind contour.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    What are your thoughts on tomorrow's potential?
  4. Eskimo Joe
    If these storm could hold off until 6/7pm that'd be great.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Got a screenshot for those of us who are mobile?
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Even 30 inch snow storms have dry slots and mix lines.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    I'll put all my chips in on Sunday.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Their latest AFD does not inspire much confidence for Monday east of I-81:
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Come November, it will flip and show a raging +NAO and SE ridge.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like no more heat this summer. Probably saving everything for mid winter.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Coward!
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Yea, but a blue check on Twitter said that isn't true so maybe both sides are the blame?
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Oh brother
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like were going to have another swing and a miss this year. Basin looks dead.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Similar to what happened at my house on Saturday. Went from nothing to "uh oh" quick.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Working outside today. It feels worse than yesterday.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Big heat doesn't go quietly into the night. We've cleared out nicely. Someone is going to get a solid storm today.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Over 150 storm related 911 calls in Montgomery County. We still have close to 50 calls pending dispatch.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. Glad you're okay.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    I'm fine with it hitting my neighborhood. I know the risks of wishing for big storms, hence why I carry extra insurance. My orange cat went nuts right before the storm hit and army crawled into the basement. She never does that, I figured something bad was coming.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Thanks. I like big storms, but this was right at the borderline of "too much".
  22. Eskimo Joe
    The line that just rolled through Reisterstown was the second worst storm I've ever experienced. Only the derecho in 2012 in Pittsburgh was worse. There are several trees down in my cul de sac. One fell on my roof, another in my car. It went from nothing to like a hurricane in less than a minute. I went up in the attic and checked and it doesn't appear to have punctured the roof, but the house shook which isn't a good sign.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like Warrenton hit 100.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. I love LWX, never understood why there is always such reticence on the excessive heat warnings. I totally understand the issue with over warning, just seems like they are ultra-conservative with them.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Afternoon short term update from LWX:
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