Eskimo Joe

Desperate, excited? What's a word between friends?

Even by Tony Pann standards that's bad.

Where do I sign?

According to my Tempest, we were stuck in the upper 30s until about 3am when the cloud deck broke. Got down to 33.

The best part of that run is that BOS got completely screwed.

Warning level event from RIC to BOS, with solid cold behind it. Yes please.

Snowfall for DCA, BWI, and IAD from 00z from this one event would meet or exceed the climo for the entire month of December. Where do I sign?

Way, way too early to look at the NAM.

West coast ridge is better on the 12z GEFS. This is good to see.

Just cover the grass for Christmas. That's all I'm asking for.

Agreed. It does seem that when there is a northern stream dominant event, the newer GFS does seem to latch onto things quicker than the CMC and Euro. I am wondering if it is getting better assimilation of data from North America?

Really quite excited to see what the GEFS has to say in a bit.

During the 2016 blizzard, the GFS handled the northern stream energy better than the Euro, Ukmet, and Canadian in the D5 - D7 range. We might be seeing that again.

I'll take the GFS in a skinny minute and call it a winter.

Through HR 108 on the 12z GFS, I don't see any major differences at 500 mb.

Mid Altantic snow lovers right now

06z EPS doesn't go out beyond 144 hours so let's not jump off a cliff.

He's a big game hunter. Even then, it's not good enough.

Same! Where do I sign?

It's showing a lot of promise. I'm in a few NWS partners work groups and I like it.

Just keeping my D8 expectations in check.

18z GFS/GEFS and Euro are all good for a plowable snowfall for much of this subforum towards the end of next week. Behind that, strong consensus for below normal temps and a weather pattern favorable for additional storms. Couple of caveats worth noting: 1.) IMO, I would focus more on ensemble guidance until 00z Tuesday. After that, put more weight on operational guidance. 2.) We're looking at al almost El Nino like pattern in a La Nina pattern. Weird things can happen. 3.) I don't think this turns into a MECS or HECS, the ceiling for this seems SECS. That being said, this would be Christmas snow with deep cold after it and put many places at or above climo for December. It's a solid pattern that we are entering!