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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Can we tighten up the the discussion here and move the banter to another thread?
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Nobody should be throwing in the towel north of Mason-Dixon. This isn't late Febraury during a wall to wall torch winter.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    RE: Thurs-Fri event The 12z GEFS is advisory level snow/ice N&W of I-95. It's "contaminated" by a few inland running coastal lows that go into Lancaster/Lehigh Valley. If we get rid of those, it's probably a solid event.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    12z GFS is a crush job for Thur/Fri N&W of I-81. The I-99 corridor up to IPT and CTP gets over a foot of snow. Mixed bag for LSV.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Which on are we talking about here?
  6. Eskimo Joe
    My expectations for this week are just getting on the board. Anything else is gravy.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    It's a sickness. A delightful sickness.
  8. Eskimo Joe
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Yes because you're in Arizona. Maybe this was the key all along?
  10. Eskimo Joe
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Please just give the Mid Altantic a shot in a La Nina.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Behind the chances for this week, we turn into a legit -NAO/-AO and neutral to slightly +PNA, with favorable EPO. No two ways about, we are looking decent.
  13. Eskimo Joe
  14. Eskimo Joe
    12z GFS is gonna do it at HR252. The primary low at 500mb washed out and transfers everything to the coast. Not bad.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Old forecasting rule was 3 to 4 isobars ahead of the storm it meant the Gulf was open for business. Looks like health blocking in Canada and the Atlantic at 500mb at HR240 ahead of the storm. That's nice.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Let's not sleep on the 19th - 21st on the GFS either. High pressure is locked in nicely ahead of a gulf storm.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Indeed. At this point, we want to watch the 850/500 mb evolution. Wait until 00z Monday to start worrying about the surface.
  18. Eskimo Joe
  19. Eskimo Joe
    12z GEFS thru HR156 have a weak coastal low and everyone gets at least some light snow. That's pretty good. Onto the Euro.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    ^not bad. Anyone got that map with individual low placement for the same time?
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. This time last year it was mid 50s with pacific puke. We're looking better this year.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    -PNA allows the storm strengthen over the central US, then coastal doesn't get going because of Atlantic blocking. A lot of moving pieces here so don't expect consensus probably until 00z Monday runs. Bottom line up front: stormy, cooler pattern emerging with several opportunities.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    We don't fail. We get on the board.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. I like it. We're D5/D6, but this is nice. Time for the ensembles. See my previous post and bullet #1.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    You're going to like the 12z GFS for the 14th to 15th. It has a legitimate CAD signature through HR120. If you go to the NCEP site and look at the surface and even up tp 925mb, it's pretty strong and there's a fresh cold airmass to our NE. Not too shabby.
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