SPC meso analysis starting to pick up on the good frontogenetic forcing developing over the TN River Valley. There are reports from some mets on Twitter that rates are upwards of 1" - 1.5" under the band in SW TN. A good sign.
I don't blame LWX at all for holding with advisories. Too many last minute things can go wrong...always easier to up the ante. 12z RAOB from IAD, RNK, and PBZ will be telling tomorrow am.
Temp drop tonight will be critical, but I'm becoming more cautiously optimistic at least I-95 and west booms based off the dearth of reliable Twitter posts to our south about the amount of thundersnow and "clean" changeover from rain to snow. Almost no mixing.
Thundersnow being reported in Memphis, TN and a flush transition from rain to snow in Kentucky. Good to see the forecast panning out to our south. This storm is juiced.
We have one thing going in our favor with this event in that we're seeing fresh artic air being injected into this event and it's not just evaporational cooling trying to overcome a cruddy airmass.
18z euro implies a low end warning event NW of the cities and the power grid would start to take a beating. Any more snow would be a major impact event.