We've blown by the convective temp of 93 degrees per the 12z IAD balloon. Yet the cumulus field is just now struggling to bubble up. There has to be a cap or something.
There appears to be a lack of a kicker, save a mesoscale boundary, and a mid level temperature inversion for today. The upside is that tomorrow's potential probably kicks up a notch if the instability isn't turned over today.
Yea we're probably going to cook Tuesday. Looks like 06z and 12z GFS push +30° air at 925 overtop the entire region. 700 mb is pretty dry too, so it's possible we bake with few clouds.
Naw bro. We're like 6 years into an epic snow drought and it's going to be another sucko winter from the looks of it. Not sure how much more people can take. Heck, we've had a practically nonexistent severe weather season thus far.