Yea, 1,500 SBCAPE, bit of a lee trough, good ll lapse rates, and okay mid level lapse rates. Also got a belt of 40kt shear. Maybe some sneaky storms in the NW suburbs today?
Only saving grace for many is having this system be a few hours early (can't maximize surface instability) and a bit more progressive than forecast. Otherwise, double digit rainfall totals might be more widespread.