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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    SPC issues Mesoscale Discussion #934: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2022/md0934.html
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Definitely sounds like a tornado occurred in Bedford, VA.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    I have a feeling that Lynchburg cell is going to produce another TOR today. It seems to be coupled right with the warm front.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    I'd be surprised if we get that. We'd need more sun to get the updrafts rooted to the surface. 10% TOR on SWODY1 = ENH.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Secondary action appears to be over central Kentucky. If we get clearing it's behind this lead stuff then we get the next line with the cold front.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. Today is going to be a weird day. That TOR cell SW of Lynchburg has the Frederick Tornado Zone™ written all over it. Took a quick look at the SPOC archives and I agree.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    After sunrise but before noon. Sometimes when we get these remnant showers/weak storms entering early on a day progged for severe weather they have just enough juice left to spark a rogue weak tornado or some other kind of pre-game action.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Keep an eye on those cells in western NC. They've been having some tendency to spin. We might get a few early AM tors.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Yea tomorrow has sporadic, but significant flash flooding all over it.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Tomorrow seems so dicey. Leaning towards a meh, but hopefully we can get a W.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Two decent events in April 2011: April 16, 2011: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110416 April 27, 2011: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20110427
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Best thing to do is walk away from this for 24 hours and remain emotionally disinvested. Check back with the 06z update on Friday and wait for the first few visible satellite images before committing.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Cat 3 into Point Lookout, then hook left into IAD. Stall it there for 18 hours then loop it back due east slowly or this season's a bust.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    NWS has been doing that for some time. It's incumbent on the spotter to let them know of your new address.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    For the past few years it seems the axis is heavy precip from summertime mid latitude cyclones has been to trend further north and east in the 12-24 hours leading up to the event.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    It's worthless without the PNA though.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    We do well with CAPE that's elevated in these parts. Given the increased amount of urban infrastructure, the nocturnal stratiform rain is better for the waterways. Less thermal shock, less chance of flash flooding.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Sitting at Ott House in Emmittsburg and it definitely has //that feel// up here.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Headed to Cumberland for the weekend. Surprised at the red box. Hopefully I catch something in the mountains.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Woke up to clouds and rain. Lololol
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Let's bake and get days in the 100s.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Watch us bust with a mid level cloud deck and never get above the low 80s.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Yup. Couple of hard learned lessoned learned about convective days here: 1.) Always take the under. You won't be dissapointed. 2.) There are a lot of ways we lose in these parts, mostly from terrain and water boundaries. 3.) If we get a good EML/mid level lapse rates, it helps to overcome the aforementioned local issues. 4.) We don't do multiple rounds of storms well, unless you're angling for flooding.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    I completely agree with this assessment. I'm a big fan of not "over forecasting" the event. There is nothing wrong with waking up to a strongly worded slight risk then adding the ENH, or MOD at the day goes on. I think that's why the April 27, 2011 event in Alabama was so well forecast because SPC and the local WFOs just upped the confidence as the event drew close.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts. Oy.
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