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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Pretty robust DCAPE western zones and already a warned cell with CG in West Virginia.
  2. Might see some sneaky upper 90s today in the UHI.
  3. Mesoscale forecasting is a P.I.T.A. It's nice to have CAMs, but they don't see to handle initiation well in this part of the country.
  4. Westminster ASOS hit 99 today. HX of 104. Wtf.
  5. Yea, 1,500 SBCAPE, bit of a lee trough, good ll lapse rates, and okay mid level lapse rates. Also got a belt of 40kt shear. Maybe some sneaky storms in the NW suburbs today?
  6. Rocky Gap and Cumberland have won a special place in my heart. Would move out there in a skinny minute.
  7. Was out in Frostburg yesterday scoping some potential mesonet sites. Western Maryland is beautiful.
  8. Prior to today, Vermont was never in a Day 2 High Risk for rainfall.
  9. We just suck as weather here. Plain and simple.
  10. Only saving grace for many is having this system be a few hours early (can't maximize surface instability) and a bit more progressive than forecast. Otherwise, double digit rainfall totals might be more widespread.
  11. Just a heads up, these cells firing in Baltimore mean business M0.3" in 15 min at my rain gage just NW of Baltimore City.
  12. WPC meso: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=679&yr=2023
  13. Appears Reading ASOS may have measured 0.75" of rain in 15 min. Very impressive.
  14. Low level lapse rates are pretty decent (approaching 8c/km) and DCAPE is nearing 900j/kg in the watch area. IMO, definitely a wet microburst risk.
  15. Mesoscale disco for Baltimore metro and points NE: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2023/md1475.html CC: @mappy @toolsheds @psuhoffman
  16. Sever Thunderstorm Watch until 8pm being issued for most of DC/Baltimore metro.
  17. Another watch box coming: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2023/md1474.html
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