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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Finally get field work, including concrete and trench digging schedule for tomorrow and it decides to rain.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Not to be a deb, but this doesn't look as impressive on the severe side as it did a few days ago. Definitely a chance for multiple rounds of thunderstorms today, but the overall spatial coverage and helicity seem to have backed off.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Doesn't seem like a real favorable environment for tornadoes tomorrow. Recent HRRR and 00z NAM trying for more low end straight line risk.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Just keep it dry until 2 pm.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    00z HRRR is wetter for many, but no severe. I'll take it.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Just give me until Tuesday evening. Got field work on Monday and pouring concrete on Tuesday.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    12z and 18z NAM looked decent but the 00z NAM is dry and boring as burnt toast.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Not event wet under the trees in Gaithersburg.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    June 13, 2013 comes to mind. Granted that was a Day 2 MOD, but the morning convection blew through and dropped a surface boundary that fire up the Leesburg to Rockville to College Park tornado.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    AI will not remove the forecasters. I can't even get a Comcast AI bot to schedule a service appointment, there's no way an AI person will replace a forecaster at a WFO when I need help.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like elevated convection at best. Yup. We at least need the rain. Would be surprised if we actually get into the mid 90s like previously forecast.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Wow where was that look for the past several winters?
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Watch that be the biggest tornado of the day.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Local law enforcement reports the Audrain County storm in MO may be producing a funnel cloud near state road 15.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Wasn't there someone in this thread earlier that was lamenting Wisconsin getting shafted again?
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. The Euro and GFS AI models seem to be proficient at picking what systems will spin up and when. I'm very much excited about that.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Don't look now, but the HRRR looks like it's trying for at least some storms tomorrow.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Got an emergency management confirmed tornado on the Logan County, IL cell. Also an LSR for a funnel cloud captured on a sky cam.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like things are about to kick off.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Latest SPC mesoanalysis has a casual 60 kt jet and supercell composite of 20, and mixing level CAPE of 1,500 - 2,500 in northeast Missouri. Something is going to fire up.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like a roughly 20 degree difference in surface temperatures between central IL and northeast MO. Definitely a healthy boundary there.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Dumb question, but is that the rear inflow jet flexing its muscles?
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like things have gotten off to a hot start. Midwest storms go brrrr
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Let's be honest for a moment, a lot of managers and "senior leaders" are excited about AI because it means less staff. Focusing on weather, the only advantage I've seen from the AI models so far is they come out faster. I haven't seen any meaningful performance in accuracy beyond D3 as a customer of the weather enterprise. That includes the private sector and government. I've been in a few private sector test groups with AI guidance for "perfect long range forecasting", and the verification scores beyond D7 are laughable. I don't need a 15 day forecast, I just need 95% confidence out 72 hours!
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Let's enjoy summer first.
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