Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Which models are better at this?
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You're missing the point. 9/10 times the front never makes it that far northeast. Then the 1/10 time happens and there's like 20 EF0 / EF-1 tornadoes across the DC / Baltimore area. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
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Yes. Warm fronts are devious.
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Cool mesonet stuff happening near there soon
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There's a solid easterly flow advocating a decent marine layer across the lowlands.
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If you read the SPC convective outlooks leading up to that event, you will notice several interesting things: 1.) SPC went 30% probabilistic on D3. That's anomalous. 2.) The Day 3 and Day 2 mentioned negative tilted upper low. . .in June. Red flag that we're dealing with a potent event. 3.) We closed well on this event: dynamics and instability. Had we had even an hour or two of legitimate, full sun then it would've been a top 10 tornado day in this region. To me, that event is the benchmark for non-tropical tornado days in these parts.
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Yes. Intermittent smell of burning pine today was odd.
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Was sitting at a bar in Cambridge yesterday headed back from Ocean City. Saw the activity racing over the bay Bridge and decided to wait it out. Definitely some cold temps aloft, looked like Barlin had decent hail.
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True that. I was joking with the wife at dinner that I should be putting the Halloween decorations out and tuning up the snow blower.
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I did not see any storm related calls in our 911 system from the Montgomery County TOR or SVR cells.
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Just not enough surface instability to get things going.
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Based off radar and SPC meso analysis, I would argue the tornado risk is probably focused south of I-66, perhaps even further south towards I-64 and the tidewater or Virginia. The DC -> Baltimore metro regions seem to be in between the best dynamics and surface instability.
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New meso out. 80% chance of a watch, I'd argue it's a tornado watch until 10pm.
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With mid and high levels clouds pushing in, I wonder if this puts a lid on a more robust tornado potential?
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If the nocturnal inversion kicks in then it's a moot point. But any leftover precipitation could act as a conduit for the wind.
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Someone could get a tornado tornado today east of I-95. Not sold on the flood risk.
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Solar radiation data for mesonet showing some good spikes on the eastern shore.
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Yes. We are close on Montgomery County stations going in.
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Where was this cold, wet pattern all winter?
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Impressive line of demarcation.
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Going down to Ocean City Tues to Fri and of course the forecast is garbage.
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M4.67" precip for the month. RSTM2 COOP site. Very happy to see this. The stream at the farm where we keep our horse is finally running again.
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Radar out west looks paltry. This has the makings of another underperformer potentially. I'm not going to be sad with that outcome.
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Sun trying to poke out?
