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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Heads up Stafford.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    SPC issues SEVERE TSTM WATCH until 01:00 UTC
  3. Eskimo Joe
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2022/md1249.html
  4. Eskimo Joe
    There's no way we even come close to June 2006. Setup is vastly different.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    HRRR is mostly west of US 15, NAMNest is I-81 to I-95.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Bit more sunshine than anticipated.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Seems like this year the axis of heavy rain sets up further north and east from that the guidance says. Wonder if that holds true today.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Chef's kiss
  9. Eskimo Joe
    BWI at least ties the record at 96°. All three terminals busted warm. It's the one thing we do well.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    DCA
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Up to 95 degrees in Reisterstown.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Nice. How summer should be.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Really getting tired of the mid 50s for lows in summer.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Just finished washing a fire truck in New Windsor and it has the deep summer soup feel. While we're "stable" here, i wonder if that cluster near Harrisburg develops a cold pool or something and can overcome whatever cap we have here. The CAMS today definitely have been wonky so may the Baltimore area gets to bust in favor of some relief tonight?
  15. Eskimo Joe
    IMO, Cappucci just seems to stir the pot when it comes to NWS warning operations. He's gone on about the size of storm based warnings, the size of watch boxes, the color of mesoscale discussion areas on SPC website and other seemingly trivial things. I totally understand that you can question things, but he seems to give back handed compliments pretty regularly.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    We just suck at weather. It's that simple. It's always something.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Monster supercell for these parts. Virginia really putting a show on today. Even got a public report of a funnel cloud 1 WSW Louisa, VA.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Tops have gone down by about 20kft and a new cell is popping up to the southwest. Perhaps it went outflow dominant and we're seeing a tremendous wet microburst. I'll bet there is a shelf cloud to end all shelf clouds ongoing.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Looks even better on the latest frame. Damn.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Orange County, VA cell looks really beefy. Wouldn't shock me if it gets a TOR.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    SPC mesoanalysis update have -100 CIN over us. We're just too stable.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Uh, watch box is canceled?
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Tops on the storm just NW of Culpepper are pushing 60,000 ft. Definitely a wet microburst potential with that cell and certainly warrants the SVR.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    I'm really skeptical that we see any action east of I-81 this evening: 1) The line that's being warned this evening is in response to a bit of a lee trough that's feeding off the boundary draped over the Potomac River. We're losing sun now and it will be tough for air mass recovery 2.) East of US 15, the atmosphere is pretty capped so we might get some elevated convection with an okay light show tonight, but that's probably the ceiling for what we can expect. Admittedly, the CAMS has been having trouble with some of this activity, but we're kind of on the outside looking in here.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    It's nice
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