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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Don't look now, but the 12z HRRR tries to drop a streamer into @psuhoffman territory tomorrow AM.
  2. The week of Dec 15th is my yearly benchmark. If we go through that time and there's nothing on guidance, then start warming up the golf clubs because we're staring down the barrel of another disappointment.
  3. If we need to wait to mid Jan to get on the board then just about every snowfall forecast is in serious trouble.
  4. Yea that's a big caveat here. Some subtle shortwave might pop up at D3 and we're in business. @wxmvpete talked about this.
  5. I'd like to see the trough get further west and the GOA low further west. Otherwise, we should really temper expectations.
  6. I don't relying on backend winters, especially now that I live south of 40N. It's a dangerous game.
  7. Not looking good in the medium to long term for snow either. It's been torture for snow lovers since the winter of 2014-2015.
  8. It was a poor attempt at JI humor. Should have put the /s in there.
  9. We're already punting a 1/3 of the winter....
  10. Seasonal futility markers will be coming into view shortly.
  11. GFS seems to have the UHI modeled better.
  12. That is a key feature in east coast snow storms. Big high, snow flies.
  13. It's in the perfect spot to do this. More please.
  14. Yes. Curious about this stat for BWI, DCA, and IAD.
  15. With more states launching mesonets, I wonder if a mesonet site will qualify for climate data someday.
  16. What website was that graphic generated from?
  17. Ensemble guidance isn't going to pick up on a rogue wave or storm during this period. https://twitter.com/CarolineMDDES/status/1728270369281196230?t=Q--GMRs6I4v3hy3k1Om0sg&s=19
  18. Long ways to go. Just one dot on a line.
  19. Yes. Yes. There we go. West coast ridge, Greenland blocking, yes.
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