Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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M0.09" rain today. Storm total M0.5"
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Chimney fire season is upon us. Please check your equipment before firing up for the autumn.
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Look at the conveyor belt of moisture well offshore. Really impressive event synoptically.
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M 0.41" Not even warning criteria.
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Seems that when tropical systems make landfall and are transitioning to extra-tropical, the landfall speeds up a bit.
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Its a myriad of aircraft with remote sensing capabilities for debris management, damage assessment, and getting the waterways reopened.
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I'd say that's a comfortable number. 06z GFS was wetter, but we'll see what happens with the 12z suite.
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HRRR has some gusts to near tropical storm force creeping up into southern Maryland and a good chunk of the eastern shore. Might see some wind advisories come out of this.
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Dews in the 40s in Carroll County this AM. Sky makes it feel like a winter storm is coming in.
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A lot of these homes that looked fine are going to be gutted from the water damage. The recovery is going to take years, not weeks like people think.
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Been doing a deep dive into the models this evening and I think it's pretty clear that Hurricane Ian has recognized the presence of DC @Ianand is steering clear so we don't get a Fujiwara effect of Ians.
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^was just about to post that. Amazing how Ian keeps going east / north east.
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One of the components of tropical forecasting that I've always found interesting is track bias. Some storms, no matter what kind of extra sampling or data ingestion, they will have a left or right track bias. You get that one model that waffles horrendously on intensity, timing, etc, but absolutely nails the track, or any wonky turns. It makes this field so humbling.
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Maryland's USAR Task Force #1 was in Puerto Rico then did a turn and burn to go to Florida. We can't even get to these places but because some news station slipped through a restricted area they think everyone can. It gives a bad impression to the public.
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Media's imagined timelines on urban search and rescue is. . . interesting.
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We have epic blocking setting up. Winter is gonna be lit
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Looks like high clouds from Ian will give us a nice sunset.
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^yes that. Got a link?
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I've noticed over the past year or two the Euro tends to be too high with QPF in the warm season beyond D4. When it's on an island with higher totals and D4 or further out, don't take it at face value.
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There is actually. Folks have posted a link to a website that takes various remote sensing and NWP data and uses that to classify a storm on an X / Y plot as warm or cold core. I don't know the link, but it's a useful tool and would probably be a good visual explainer.
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