Eskimo Joe

12z GEFS thru HR156 have a weak coastal low and everyone gets at least some light snow. That's pretty good. Onto the Euro.

^not bad. Anyone got that map with individual low placement for the same time?

Yup. This time last year it was mid 50s with pacific puke. We're looking better this year.

-PNA allows the storm strengthen over the central US, then coastal doesn't get going because of Atlantic blocking. A lot of moving pieces here so don't expect consensus probably until 00z Monday runs. Bottom line up front: stormy, cooler pattern emerging with several opportunities.

We don't fail. We get on the board.

Yes. I like it. We're D5/D6, but this is nice. Time for the ensembles. See my previous post and bullet #1.

You're going to like the 12z GFS for the 14th to 15th. It has a legitimate CAD signature through HR120. If you go to the NCEP site and look at the surface and even up tp 925mb, it's pretty strong and there's a fresh cold airmass to our NE. Not too shabby.

12z GFS op has a legitimate CAD signature through HR120. If you go to the NCEP site and look at the surface and even up to 925mb, it's pretty strong and there's a fresh cold airmass to our NE. Not too shabby.

LWX D6 winter weather threat:

Couple of thoughts: 1.) It's //possible// the primary low drifts into MI and weakens such that we don't get our CAD eroded fast and bootleg our way into a legit wedge of CAD. Then the primary takes over and we get some frozen off that. A scenario like that would feature, mix/snow thump, then mix/ice, then snow. It's a odd way to win and I've seen it happen once or twice, but you need a legit airmass in place. 2.) Ideally, with a setup like this, you want to see the primary go up into Kentucky and die fast, with a quick handoff to a coastal low that deepens and stops the bleeding at the mid levels. IMO, the first step towards this solution would be to see the surface low over Texas instead of Denver.

Putting this here because it's a legit ob. TWC Classis Christmas playlists: https://search.freefind.com/find.html?si=95717179&pid=r&n=0&_charset_=UTF-8&bcd=÷&query=christmas

Putting this here because it's a legit ob. TWC Classis Christmas playlists: https://search.freefind.com/find.html?si=95717179&pid=r&n=0&_charset_=UTF-8&bcd=÷&query=christmas

Putting this here because it's a legit ob. TWC Classis Christmas playlists: https://search.freefind.com/find.html?si=95717179&pid=r&n=0&_charset_=UTF-8&bcd=÷&query=christmas

Putting this here because it's a legit ob. TWC Classis Christmas playlists: https://search.freefind.com/find.html?si=95717179&pid=r&n=0&_charset_=UTF-8&bcd=÷&query=christmas

Strong blocks for interesting things. It's possible that we bootleg our way into something. Wouldn't be the first time either. That being said, it's wise to keep expectations low.

Same down here in the NW Baltimore suburbs. It's so hard in a La Nina to score a clean event...but seems easier up your way.

RE: Dec 16th - 18th window. I'm optimistic that at least north of I-70 gets some kind of frozen from that.

The next 7 to 10 days are going to reiterate why elevation and latitude matter so much. Y'all have a solid chance to get on the board a couple of times beginning Sunday night (mostly north of the PA Turnpike), then again sometime between December 16th - 19th (could be a legit plowable event for many). I must confess that Monday and Tuesday this week, my confidence was shaken a bit that we might be getting Lucy'd, but things snapped back into place pretty quickly.

Rejoice weenies. 2nd half of December will feature snow. Would probably want to get the outside decorations finished this weekend.

Nice

We can dream.

Yea don't do that. We fish a body or two out a year from people who try to skate there.

My brother was bon in December 1989 in Philly. My parents remark to this day how cold that month was.