Eskimo Joe

You'd expect partly cloudy and 45. Preview of winter 2023 where everything is too far east?

None of those images loaded for me.

We have a positive IOD right now? Is there a website with a reliable tracking of thie index? Is there any lag between IOD change and NAO change?

Yea at least for this domain it's terrible.

^that's not an encouraging map

Only 0.27 in the day. Glad it's been slowly raining though so it can absorb.

Not very El Nino like behavior right now.

M0.17" since 12pm.

Matrix glitch. Sometimes it works in your favor.

Near normal just means 34 and rain instead of 35 and rain down here.

Mulching with straw mitigates a lot of those problems.

Thanks for the insight. I appreciate the analysis.

-QBO is favorable for cooler weather, correct?

A lot of mesonets are supporting the solar and wind industries without knowing it.

More highlights tomorrow folks!

Some additional tidbits for severe weather. Please note these are conclusions from various presentations and not my own thoughts. 1.) Mesonets that capture solar irradiance (W/m^2) should visualize their data. Gradients in solar irradiance can illustrate CAPE gradients that will support convective initiation. NOTE: The Maryland mesonet will show this once stations are deployed. 2.) The SPC HREF performs poorly with mid level cloud erosion times in cool weather severe episodes, especially in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. The cause remains unknown and warrants further study. If the SPC HREF shows an area breaking out into the warm sector, and does not have support from the rest of the CAMS, consider disregarding the SPC HREF. 3.) When forecasting big hail events, the 12z RAOB closest to your location can be helpful in identifying an EML. This is especially true when comparing to special 18z RAOB because the 12z data will feature a comparatively cool surface temperature which lets a forecaster "see" the fingerprint of an EML advecting from Texas or the Mexico highlands.

Going to put this here since it is relevant to severe weather. I'm in Albany, NY this week for the NY State mesonet symposium. Several talks have focused on HRRR verification against the state mesonet sites and ASOS sites. Couple of conclusions that have come up over and over again regarding the HRRR: 1.) The HRRR systematically overpredicts surface winds. 2.) The HRRR performs poorly with initiating boundary layer clouds (cumulus) in days following air mass changes during June, July, August. 3.) The HRRR clearly overmixes the boundary layer, especially in SW flow events, and drops the surface dewpoint too quickly. This causes Surface Based CAPE (SBCAPE) to be between modeled 250-750 j/kg SBCAPE too low. 4.) The HRRR is too quick to mix out low level temperature inversions (The Wedge™ ) during spring convective events.

welcome to the joys of mesoscale forecasting

Dumb question, what makes you confident it will couple?

Watch this thing not couple with the atmosphere or some such and we just see a flood of pacific puke all winter coast to coast.

Not into the bar scene. Just a place where we can get a solid dinner and a nice local beer.

It's New England. You do that well.

One thing to note - the GFS has been advertising Nigel or whatever system is behind Lee to start west of 70W for much longer. System that do so tend to have a higher percentage of affect the east coast of the US more it seems.