I always go Euro in tropical, but by the time it's up in these parts it's interacting with mid latitude weather systems. Would tend to take the under up in these parts, especially from I-95 and points west. We rarely get decent tropical here.
https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1819761095441338490?t=lwkQB5n5TU5qrJkjTf_GRg&s=19
For some reason not all of the embedding is working on mobile. Thanks Electron.
Surprisingly the soils appeared to have absorbed a lot of rainfall last night. The Baltimore City mesonet site shows spikes in soil moisture all the way down to 50cm (half meter)!
SPC meso analysis has low level lapse rates near -9c/km and some really impressive DCAPE along and south of I-70. Someone is lining up to get a decent storm this afternoon.
The field that my wife rides her horse on in Finksburg is so dry it feels like concrete. We desperately need a regionwide 2 to 4 inches of rain over a few days.