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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Done like the Orioles
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Both. You win two prizes!
  3. Eskimo Joe
    That cluster looks like garbage. Just a bunch of crapvection. Tornado risk is the best east of here into S New Jersey, IMO.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Looks pitiful on the TIAD and TBWI radars.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    If you want some real giggles, head on over to the SPC meso analysis and see where the Violent Tornado Parameter (located under Composite Indices) is bullseyed.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming out. A smaller Tornado Watch may be right on it's heels.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Given the tornado risk east of I-95, this is justified. I could see a tornado watch going up east of here.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Bro I just don't want to be 65 and party sunny on Christmas Day.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Do you think this is an I-95 and east event, or are the western suburbs in play?
  10. Eskimo Joe
    The old Euro mid range high QPF bias strikes again.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    It's not unreasonable to be pessimistic on snow chances in winter anymore, especially south of 40N. We've been in such a long term snow drought that it's almost safer to forecast Above Normal temps and Below Normal snowfall. You stand a good chance of being right most years outside of New England. Heck, I could see this being a shutout in the snowfall department south of DC this winter. Several folks on here appear to have already punted December and the first half of January!
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Issuing a winter outlook, even a preliminary one, in August is dicey.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    75°+ dews will do that!
  14. Eskimo Joe
    M1.8" Clear Spring mesonet site.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Same. Seems like we need Above Normal in Alaska for central and especially eastern CONUS to get Below Normal.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Infrastructure Week!
  17. Eskimo Joe
    .CHO storms go brrr
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Where are you located if you don't mind me asking?
  19. Eskimo Joe
    This line is booking east. Latest warnings from Sterling have movement at 50 mph.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Also a heavy precip disco for our far western posters:
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Definitely looking like a non zero tornado threat west of US 15 this evening. Mesoanalysis and mesonet data showing some nice backing of winds and surge in dews.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Per SPC mesoanalysis, there's a pretty solid are of instability cresting the Allegheny Front.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Use NAM MOS and HRRR together and you knew when the flip from SN -> IP -> RA would occur 90% of the time. That combination consistently schooled the GFS and Euro inside 30 hrs.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR puts a legit bow through Frederick/Loudoun/Montgomery/Carroll counties right at sunset.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Not sure if this is better off in the ENSO threat or here, but what are the telltale signs that an El Nino or La Nina are coupling with the atmosphere?
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