Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Oh I like that graph.
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Not only has the west coast ridge trended sharper on the EPC, it's also trended stronger. Good to see.
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I like this trend on the Euro
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From a WPC met:
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That post is incorrect.
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Excellent
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100% probably one of the better model suites of the winter thus far. Bottom line: there's potential next week, but no one should be spiking the ball. I fully expect swings with each run, hoping to at least see a trend at 18z where things are still there.
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CFS is quite chilly for February
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They seem to be more common in El Nino events, maybe the more active STJ is a requirement for these?
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A key ingredient for any legitimate snowstorm in these parts.
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Agreed. We're like 12 hours off from a legit event for everyone.
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Thus far, the 12z suite gives credence to a storm somewhere in the 1/15 to 1/17 time frame. It doesn't appear to be a cutter either, either it hits us or to our south. That's about all anyone should glean.
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Seems like a 50/50 low locks everything in? Not a terrible spot for the antecedent high, not great either. IIRC, that setup worked for 12/19/09 too.
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DGEX and then the DGEX and Canadian for the 2/10 event.
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As @Terpeast and @WxUSAF have often said, worry about thermals inside D5.
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Yea there's a decent moisture feed with that storm and it looks fairly neutral at 500 mb?
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Will echo others' sentiment about Jan 2025. My records indicate a total snow depth of about six inches for several days, with a low temperature of 1° twice.
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Indeed. Unfortunately some folks misinterpret posts like that so I was attempting to add a crumb of context.
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Paul Kocin cooked that metaphor up. He gets all the credit.
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Yes. To get a Major East Coast Storm, you need multiple ingredients to align. It's like cooking - a phenomenal meal needs to come together almost perfectly.
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I do not believe so.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Eskimo Joe replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Happy birthday @sauss06 -
Slightly reassuring to see the 18z suite of ensembles hold or beef up snowfall.
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Equally important is the western ridge trending stronger and sharper.
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No high pressure to the north to impart better cold air advection. Heavier precip rates overcome a marginal profile and turn precip to frozen, elsewhere, it's rain. Very believable.
