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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    I'm seeing more and more of the "EF-0 tornadoes aren't bad and don't need warnings". Couldn't disagree more: EF-0 tornadoes damage houses, cars, and are a direct danger to people outside. I would make the argument that we should work to shrink the size of polygons and keep warnings to less than 30 minutes, those would narrow the impact, especially in more marginal environments.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    My earlier optimism for overnight rain is fizzling.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Flood watch for the metros seems justified.
  4. Eskimo Joe
  5. Eskimo Joe
    After the 2012 derecho, PEPCO spent a lot to study the type and height of trees in their right of way. They determined it was best to plant smaller trees like birch and red buds, and even offered residents a chance to cut down bit trees and have them replaced with smaller ones at no cost. It was incredibly successful and I do not understand why that program was not maintained. Yup. My neighborhood was build between 1960 - 1970. Our big issue is that BGE doesn't do tree trimming within the right of way with any set method or schedule. In the ten years that we've lived here, we've only seen one routing tree trimming crew. Compare that to Adams Electrical Cooperative when we lived in PA, who were out every other year.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    I truly hope this El Nino comes in weaker, but that seems unlikely.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Interesting temp/snowfall website tool. If you're a snow lover, the odds are not in your favor in these parts for big ENSO events:
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Sure thing. Unlike SPC, the marginal flood risks are so benign that I'm not sure it's worth including.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Anything Slight Risk or higher would be great honestly. The worst flooding of my career was in a Slight Risk last July when inside the beltway got slammed.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    The gaps in the precipitation and drought have largely spared the metros from any wider issues. If this rain came as one longer fused batch of precip, there would've been a few water rescues at least. On a similar note, I wish WPC would develop an event archive like SPC does. It would be great for research.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Incredible bust for short term model guidance. Some places about to pick up 3" of rain on the day.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    That's about sustainment rain. We really need some surplus rains. The reservoirs up in Baltimore County are getting quite low.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like no major heat in the long term. Maybe no more 95°+ days?
  14. Eskimo Joe
    That individual just likes to be contrarian for NWS/SPC.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Would track for our area's luck of late.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Despite a short heat wave near the 4th of July, this month turned out cooler and drier compared to last year at my cooperative observation site (RSTM2). July 2025 - 16, 90 degree days & monthly precip total of 6.5" July 2026 - 10, 90 degree days & monthly precip total of 3.6"
  17. Eskimo Joe
    If I recall correctly, SPC requires two confirmed tornadoes to verify a Tornado Watch box. The watch from last Tuesday has been validated from the two confirmed tornadoes in Maryland.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Looking like another 48 hr + power outage from storms that weren't terrible. BGE is an absolute joke of a utility company.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Central and Western PA were upgraded earlier this summer. At one point there were over six tornado warnings going in a severe thunderstorm watch.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch for for everyone until 10 pm.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    I only make the sure bets. Vegas can't have all the fun.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Watch box out to our north, $20 says it's going to be multiple watches.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    This is a good take!
  24. Eskimo Joe
    ^looks like an I-70 and north kind of watch box
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Latest HRRR is very GFS-esque. Total whiff for everyone.
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