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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Wow where was that look for the past several winters?
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Watch that be the biggest tornado of the day.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Local law enforcement reports the Audrain County storm in MO may be producing a funnel cloud near state road 15.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Wasn't there someone in this thread earlier that was lamenting Wisconsin getting shafted again?
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. The Euro and GFS AI models seem to be proficient at picking what systems will spin up and when. I'm very much excited about that.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Don't look now, but the HRRR looks like it's trying for at least some storms tomorrow.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Got an emergency management confirmed tornado on the Logan County, IL cell. Also an LSR for a funnel cloud captured on a sky cam.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like things are about to kick off.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Latest SPC mesoanalysis has a casual 60 kt jet and supercell composite of 20, and mixing level CAPE of 1,500 - 2,500 in northeast Missouri. Something is going to fire up.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like a roughly 20 degree difference in surface temperatures between central IL and northeast MO. Definitely a healthy boundary there.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Dumb question, but is that the rear inflow jet flexing its muscles?
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like things have gotten off to a hot start. Midwest storms go brrrr
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Let's be honest for a moment, a lot of managers and "senior leaders" are excited about AI because it means less staff. Focusing on weather, the only advantage I've seen from the AI models so far is they come out faster. I haven't seen any meaningful performance in accuracy beyond D3 as a customer of the weather enterprise. That includes the private sector and government. I've been in a few private sector test groups with AI guidance for "perfect long range forecasting", and the verification scores beyond D7 are laughable. I don't need a 15 day forecast, I just need 95% confidence out 72 hours!
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Let's enjoy summer first.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    So far this appears to be shaping up to be a warm summer, but it doesn't look like one of the good old fashioned hot ones.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    It's a damn shame the Big Boy steam engine isn't coming back west through Harpers Ferry. That would've been an EPIC shot coming out of the tunnel and going over the Potomac.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Eh, this is a slight risk day. It's not like we were staring down a D3 MOD risk with a CIG2 hatch 60% or something that fizzled.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    I've been in a few NOAA/NHC/FEMA webinars recently where the speakers have made observations where the AI guidance appears to not overhype, but rather really juice up convection in the warm sector. It's entirely possible these AI models need more events in their knowledge base before they can beat the traditional NWP. Just my observation. Others are welcome to chime in.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    This is just my observation, but the AI stuff (NCAR) seems to over do convection is marginal environments. It's almost like there aren't enough events in it's database.
  20. Eskimo Joe
  21. Eskimo Joe
    I'm kind of in the same boat as you. Still, we've seen what marginal surface instability and good dynamics can do in these parts.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    SPC maintains the 15% for D4 (Thursday) and mentions the usual fail potential alleys: clouds, timing, etc. That being said, any time you get a decent jet just to our north and a reasonably hot/humid airmass...interesting things can happen.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Yea definitely looks like a tornado somewhere between Libertytown and New Windsor:
  24. Eskimo Joe
    That cell in Libertytown/Walkersville appears to have been legit. Some reports of structure damage. . .maybe a tornado?
  25. Eskimo Joe
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