Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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We still have spotted lantern flies fluttering around at work.
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A 40% chance of partly sunny, a 30% chance of a coating to 5 inches, and a 30% chance of 5" - 12". They'll apologize when it turns out cloudy.
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^that's not terrible at all
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I would happily write off December 2026 if I knew it would transition into a solid January and February. Snow with no sun angle concerns is the best snow. March snow is fine, but it's like the last drink at a bar while everyone's cleaning up around you and the bar tender is staring you down.
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Everyone knows that's how you build up to a great pattern in 2028. You just gotta punt this winter first.
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BTW, here's the GOAT early season polar disruption. No way am I calling for another 2009-10, just posting for comparison. The Japanese marine heatwave is killing us of late.
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There are always questions about whether any SSW or wind reversal will couple appropriately with the polar vortex. This 3D modeling suggests that it will successfully disrupt things all the way to the surface, which is hopeful to at least mute a torch December. I'm not expecting a miracle in the snowfall department this winter, just climo snowfall.
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Interesting test case here of the physics vs AI guidance.
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This is how you establish cross polar flow and turn Canada into an ice box. A crucial first step for legit snow chances in these parts.
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Inject that into my veins
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12z Euro appears to go for a prolonged weakening of the polar vortex? Maybe this at least mutes any Torchmas?
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Soils and streams getting dry again. If we can't at least maintain parity with seasonal precipitation this winter, next spring could be a rough drought.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
Eskimo Joe replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Does timing of an autumnal or early winter SSW have any implication on the favorability for a colder/wetter season? Is this something that we want to have happen as early and strongly as possible, or wait until later on? -
That's quite possible. The "new normal" could be long stretches of dry with intermittent periods of just deluges of precipitation. Look back to the winter of 2015/2016. It was largely dry in the frozen and liquid precipitation. Our one big event just happened to be a well timed snow storm. If it were off by a week it would've been three inches of rain in January.
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It's still a bit early, but if we're at Thanksgiving and still bone dry with zonal flow, then yea something is probably off.
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Low of 36 with a bit of frost on our back porch roof.
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Heck of a way to run a Super Duper El Nino™
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Oh man that is an ugly look.
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Not necessarily. NWS assigns new products to multiple test bed office concurrently to get data across multiple scenarios. It could be something like State College, Las Vegas, Duluth, and Binghamton.- 2,605 replies
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yes. Looks like 2028 is the proposed start year. -
"Big Blue Blob™ weather" -@Ian
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I'm not well versed on Pacific or Indian Ocean teleconnections. Just trying to learn how the PNA/PDO/EPO all mesh together. Interesting. I'm happy to see some kind of persistent western ridge in Canada. At least that mitigates the Pacific Puke to some degree. Thank you for the insight. I appreciate it.
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What do you think will be necessary for the PDO to switch back to a positive phase?
