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Eskimo Joe

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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    The 18z sounding from IAD had ~4,500 surface CAPE. As we transition to nightfall, it's a perfect setup for some decent elevated convection.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Loss of daytime heading and junkvection really killing off the tornado risk.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    LWX radar velocities look benign, but ADW and BWI terminals tell the picture well. Legit 60kt gust potential.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    I'm honestly surprised that SPC hasn't upgraded that area to a tornado watch.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    We're going to waste an anamolous trough and solid surface instability due to some leftover clouds. You can't make this stuff up.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    4,700 SBCAPE on the 18z sounding, but the convective temp is 88 degrees. With this thick cirrus shield in place at peak heating, I doubt we get enough sunshine to reach this. Perhaps south of US 50 and the eastern shore, as @wxmeddleralluded to works out, but this is shaping up to be an ugly bust here in the metros.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    A number of tornado warnings in that watch box to our west. Wonder if SPC upgrades that?
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like the storms NW of RIC may be choking off the inflow for anything local to DC or Baltimore.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch for everyone until 10 pm tonight.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    That cell coming out of central WV is probably going to be the main show in these parts. Already visible on LWX radar and it's had a tornado warning on it a short time ago. Must be some little vort max swinging around the base of the trough?
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Already a confirmed tornado in northeast PA. Several warnings up towards NY. Dynamics FTW.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    That would be like the El Ninos of yore.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Then the 13z HRRR comes in and is back to total garbage for everyone.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    Sure thing. 12z HRRR: Around 3/4pm - Puts a couple of decent pre-frontal discrete cells from MDT south to DC, looks like one cell gets beefy east of Baltimore along maybe a bay breeze boundary? Around 4 - 6pm - Develops a respectable line of storms along I-81 and runs it from MDT down to RIC around sunset. That would be a solid slight risk day in these parts. If folks hold their expectations to that, then no one would be dissappointed.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Looking upstream, if we can get these debris clouds over West Virginia to fade out, we should be okay for at least some thunder. The cluster of storms coming through Columbus, OH right now has an uptick in CG and seems to be drifting southeast. Wonder if that's our show for later?
  17. Eskimo Joe
    If you liked the 11z HRRR, you'll love the 12z HRRR. Legit squall line.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Do we want to put the obs, etc. in this thread today, or the severe wx thread? I vote for here.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Clouds. Our most common failure mode. Hope we can clear out today.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Man you can script a precip minimum better than that.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Biggest tornado outbreak in this region.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    18z HRRR largely clouds over the warm sector tomorrow. Hard to see that happening.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. Unfortunately, my confidence in SPC has really been shaken since they've changed these outlooks.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    12z NAM twins look like complete garbage. Not even MRGL risk worthy. Ooof.
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