Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Nothing wrong with the Euro-AI. You don't want to be in the bulls eye this far out.
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Ukie has no storm whatsoever, which is not surprising. It can sometimes whiff on these setups until you get within 100 hours.
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Yes. While we were getting shellacked, the Canadian came in with 5" - 10" at 12z and we all laughed. Then the Euro came in with 15" - 20" and suddenly we knew something special was happening. There was a last minute bump north, but that was mostly because the block was decaying and it allowed for more poleward movement at 500 mb. We do not appear to have such a scenario this time around. It's a healthy block.
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Canadian and Euro were the first to hone in on the 2nd Feb 2010 event.
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Only Randy should start a thread, if one at all at this point.
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Yes. Autocorrect got me. I'll fix my post. Ty
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Oh man it's so close. We're a step or two away.
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12z GFS op has a weird little trough out west that dampens the western ridge. Euro and Icon do not have have.
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Early on, but to me the big thing seems to be how this ridge out west is handled, too far east and this thing swings out to sea. This is not a comment on a specific model, just an overall observation.
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For the next day or two I would lean more weight towards the ensembles, both AI and traditional. If we start seeing a better clustering for the coastal low, and perhaps it climbing the seaboard more, then it's likely game on.
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I mean, a fail could be that it hit the Carolinas and misses it.
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We absolutely can fail with this, but this seems like something we can reel in.
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Every storm has trended northwest this winter. We're about to go inside D5 with this thing. Almost game on.
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Looking out west, there's a good ridge building in which should help to keep this thing from cutting too far west.
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ICON is a hit
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06z Euro AI-EPS has a mean 850 temp during the storm of -10 to -15. Very supportive of good snow growth. It also would lay a good boundary for the 850 low to track to our south.
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Gimme
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I'm honestly quite intrigued about the late week potential. It has a legitimate upside (even B-word) potential for this area.
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The west coast 500 mb ridge on the EPS is textbook for a major east coast snowfall, and has trended in a more favorable direction over the past several runs.
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Incredible to see the op 06z Euro throw a sub 980mb low off Cape May, NJ this weekend. That's a blizzard almost every time in these parts.
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I would think more like 12z tomorrow, but he's our snow dad so.
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Only @stormtracker should have that power.
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Gimme, gimme, gimme
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Nope every parking lot and sidewalk is a sheet of ice
