Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres
Eskimo Joe replied to H2O's topic in Mid Atlantic
Canadian kills the inland low off quick and has a better high. Good signs and it's been trending this way for several runs. -
Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres
Eskimo Joe replied to H2O's topic in Mid Atlantic
The 12z suite is good. If we can knock that warm layer down, then it would be a boom scenario wrt snowfall. -
It's *possible* the warm nose might not be as bad, and it's oscillating right on the edge of flipping between snow and sleet.
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Mt. Holly & Wakefield forecast for central and lower Delmarva
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RE: snow:water ratio forecasting. Thought this would be a good book mark for folks.
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FWIW, the 12z HRRR appears colder and holds the sleet line below I-66 through 12z/15z Sunday.
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RE: Freezing rain risk. See the response from @wxmvpete
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Big plus on the 12z NAM is that it appears to kill off the primary surface low quick, and further south.
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00z GFS is the best case scenario. 8"-12" along I-95, 12"-16" immediate western suburbs. 16"+ west of US 15.
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Through HR51, the surface high and subsequent CAD seems stronger on the 00z NAM.
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Not a dru patch, just subsidence behind that band in northern MD.
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Same. Hope 00z is better for all. Mix events are exasperating to work.
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Well said. A big weekend for the mesonet though. Its first widespread winter storm.
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One thing for sure, the rest of this month is cold.
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GFS just locks that high in over the St. Lawrence Valley every run.
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In GFS we trust. Heavens yes. All snow with no precip issues.
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Oh man that would be a disaster. Thank the gods it's the RGEM.
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Looks like a consensus for 6" - 10" from I-70 to I-66 with some sleet. 10"+ up into PA. The biggest storm in over a decade for many. Sold.
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IIRC don Sutherland posted in here in that past that 4 out of the 5 tops five La Nina snowfalls at BWI were in January, and were all under 10" of snow. The lone exception was the Blizzard of 1996.
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That would be a disaster
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I know it's the NAM, but it's scored last minute events like this in previous times. There were several events in the 2013 - 2015 time frame where it picked up on some mid level warmth of subsidence that even the Euro didn't detect. To see the NAM and some other meso guidance trend lower/more disjointed is a bit of a red flag.
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that's aggressive
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Never dance on the grave of a snow lover. It invites back luck for you. Really impressive temp drop over the next 24 hours. It's amazing to realize that today might be the warmest day for the rest of the month.
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Hey could be worse. We could be North Carolina. They're getting a major rug pull on this one.
