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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    Just imagine if this thing hit at 4pm with some better lapse rates and a touch more shear.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    DCA just gusted to 52 kts
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Wow healthy 60 kt core just south of DCA.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Agree 9/10 times. IMO, this is the 1 out of 10 times I'll differ given the numerous 250 Anniversary event from Baltimore to DC. In a situation like this, it's just easier to slap down a big polygon and say "it's coming everyone".
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Two thoughts come to mind: 1.) These are machine learning/AI-influenced CAMS that don't yet have the "database" of events to properly articulate when these events die off. 2.) As we saw with April 2011 and the 2012 Derecho, mature MCS complexes persist longer than meso guidance if the downstream airmass is sufficiently unstable. However, the lack of an EML or good jet streak generally isn't enough to sustain the storms much past sunset. There is an eight part YouTube video from Rich Thompson (SPC met) speaking a Univ of Oklahoma and he talks about this extensively. I cannot find the YouTube series unfortunately.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    IAD gusted to 50 mph again. Impressive. Fairfax to DC about to get crushed.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    Piccccsssss
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Yes. I have the scanner up for Frederick County, MD and they have a somewhat steady stream of wires/trees calls coming out.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    With the line/gust front now over LWX radar, the 0.9 and 1.3 degree velocity scans really tell the tale...considerable wind risk in parts of NOVA.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    IAD just gusted to 52 mph.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Casual ~3,000 square mile polygon.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    Rather pronounced gust front from essentially the PA/MD line down to Middleburg, VA. Wonder if this ignites a fresh line or signals the end of the northern section of the storms?
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Yea those two terminals laughed in my face. Looks like they took off in the late afternoon.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    DCA had a high of 99°, BWI topped out at 96°.
  15. Eskimo Joe
    That cell approaching Garrett County looks legit. Little notch and everything else to it.
  16. Eskimo Joe
    Watch box coming out from DC north.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    Yea I'm not confident this survives into the metros either.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Pretty incredible storms near Pittsburgh. Radar showing 60-65kt winds about 1,000 foot off the surface just north of the city.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like they lost power in the terminal.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Very impressive velocity signatures across Allegheny County. 911 centers probably pretty busy right now. That second line coming through Ohio is getting beefier.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Impressive downburst signature approaching the City of Pittsburgh. Radar showing between 47 - 60 kts between 700-2,500 ft. AGL near the radar site.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Some impressive wind signatures on those storms near Pittsburgh. Wouldn't surprise me to see a 70 mph reading or two.
  23. Eskimo Joe
    If they maintain mostly sunny and that good wind direction they could get an upper 90 reading here soon.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Looks like the rain yesterday has boosted surface dews a bit. Helps to offset the fact that air temperatures aren't climbing really into the 90s.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    Finally feels like summer.
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