Eskimo Joe

That seems....extreme.

Watch this be another 100" winter for them.

You start with mostly cloudy skies and cold, northwest flow for a day or two. Around mid afternoon on day three, warm air moves in aloft and starts precip as freezing rain. It then flips to steady, moderate snow overnight. Precipitation falls without the benefit of sunshine to melt it off overnight, and road crews were unable to put pretreatment down due to rain. The snow encapsulates power lines and trees overnight, leading to over 250,000 outages across the DC - Baltimore region. Gusty NW winds of around 20 mph occur after the storm exits around sunrise. Early sunshine fades behind a cirrus shield the next day as a potent clipper system dives south into Kentucky. An additional 4" - 8" of fluffy snow occurs during the afternoon and evening.

Congrats @usedtobe!

Interesting - is the Euro always late for NBM?

Appreciate the response. I'm in the same mindset as you.

If/when we get shut out with this upcoming pattern, would you chalk it up to bad luck, or something more serious like a fundamental shift in the base state?

12z Euro-AI bumped up snow probs for I-95 east. Now 40% - 50% of 1"+ on Sunday.

Copy that. Appreciate the context.

Thank you both. I really appreciate the explanation!

Not great to see that trough build in so quickly over Alaska?

The EPS has a mean high in the single digits across the entire region towards the end of January. Wow.

Apologies, the development of the mid level trough appears to be NW of 06z.

Through HR 42, the NAM appears NW.

Look at this guy with all the egghead language.

Euro continues to open the freezer in the long range. Man just give us some snow covered ground and it'll be a cold shot to remember.

Euro has a decent vort max over Minnesota, the GFS does not. Seems to interfere with the coastal low.

Clear west trend on the Canadian

Looks like the 12z UKMET was better for northern areas?

Yes. That's excellent. Looks like light snow back to the I-81 corridor on the mean.

UKMET did too?