Sciascia
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18z HRRR Kuchera snow map and precip plot at the end of the run (Noon Tuesday):
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Euro has officially put me in bullseye territory in the upper 1/3rd of Boone County, IL. Which means it’ll shift somewhere in the next 24hrs.
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This storm is close enough to be on the HRRR. You’ll see the low placement at 48hrs in the lower left vs. the new 00z NAM
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00z NAM: Snow output in N IL weirdly spotty with 6 in Kane & DeKalb county but only 3-4 north of that. The low tracked through the middle of lower Wisconsin.
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Showing the snow band shifts over the last 13 GFS runs.
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Kuchera map for 18z GFS
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Just imagine if the NAM pulls a coup on the way north track.
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If Rockford has a magnet, this is about as far NW as it can go in terms of getting the most snow.
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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Sciascia replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
After looking at the 6z GFS, that’s back to back runs of 30+ inches at ORD in the next 8 days. If the 12z does the same, that’s “officially” a streak. Let’s go for it! -
Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Sciascia replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Fox Chicago’s Mike Caplan mentioned in a livestream today that a special mission was conducted to retrieve data from the storm before it makes landfall. Also, that data is supposed to begin appearing in the 00z model suite. -
Here’s the final frame of the 12z NAM:
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Sir, pornography is not allowed on this website. Especially money shots.
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Moderate to heavy snow falling. What a genuinely nice surprise to have it starting now.
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Rain is beginning to change to snow, about 5-6 hours earlier than the most recent HRRR had been forecasting in this area.
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LOT with a graphic showing how 3 of the 4 seasons will have a presence over the next 48hrs.
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As someone that had 3 tornadoes within 12 miles of their home (and one 3 miles away) on Friday night, I’m hoping this can just be thunderstorms and nothing severe.
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We’ve had our house in Poplar Grove for 3+ years. We’ve had to go into the basement for storms probably 3 times. Tonight was by far the scariest. Lightning, thunder, flickering & dimming lights. 3 scared pups (and their two anxious owners), but we made it. Thankful to be safe, especially knowing of the tornado only 9 miles south of our home in Belvidere. Hope everyone here got through it all safely, and my condolences to those affected by the tornadoes.
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Tornado warning poplar grove. Where’d it touch down?
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Changed my travel plans for the evening. Hopefully Metra doesn’t have a major disruption & I can still get into Chicago later tonight.
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Need some opinions here. I’m currently planning to catch a train out of Harvard at 5:20pm, set to arrive in Jefferson Park at 6:48pm. HRRR seems to be showing a lull in severity between 5 & 7pm, but severe weather can pop up whenever it wants. I can’t read the advanced stuff for rain events as well as I know others here can. Should I stick to that train or try for a later one/get the first train out tomorrow morning?
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Looks like a lull before some more snow as it exits. Wonder if the storms down south stole any of the moisture since (pretty much all) models had snow falling uninterrupted until afternoon.
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Storm has begun here with some freezing rain…or maybe just ice pellets.
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I guess I’ll stand alone embracing our March 2023 snow overloads.
