raindancewx

The Weatherbell guys updated their February forecast on the 17th - they have OK 1-3F below normal in February, with the areas of TX right next to OK around 1F below normal. Rest of TX, other than El Paso area -1F to 1F. They have an area centered around the OH/IN border 5F below normal. Immediate West Coast, Southern NM, Southern AZ all +1F. Probably 80% of the country -5F to 0F below normal. My idea for February was that the cold anomalies would look like August, maybe they center between the Continental Divide and the Mississippi River, but we'll have to see. Been pleased with how my "weather based summer analogs" have handled January so far.

Given the realities of the temperature and precip anomalies so far this winter, I changed my winter outlook map to show a mild/wet winter in the Southwest. Also don't think the cold can be wiped out in Montana, it's been frigid again up there this month. Cold to me is mean highs >=2F below normal, Warm is mean highs >=2F above normal. I don't really look at lows, since most populated places have strong urban heat island effects and will just about always be "warm" against a long term mean. Mild is in between +/-2F Wet is >=1.2x long term mean precip, Dry is <=0.8x long term mean precip. Moist is 0.81-1.19x mean. Unless we get less than 33% of normal precip (<0.6" * 0.33 for ABQ) here in the SW Jan 17 through Feb 28, this is going to be a wet winter. Already too wet to be "dry". Can only be moist or wet at this point.

The 1931-32 to 2015-16 mean precipitation in Albuquerque is 0.80" from Dec 1 to Jan 15. We had 1.31" (+64%) this winter, close to a top ten amount...and yet hardly any snow. Been both warm and wet. Suspect it will get much colder in the coming days/weeks though relative to normal. We're actually already guaranteed at least a near average winter here for precip now - 1.31" is just about the Dec-Feb average already. Any rain/snow of any consequence will push us above to well above average for the winter. My view is the La Nina/warm AMO are firmly in charge for warmth here, and this is now fairly likely to be a +1F to +3F winter by mean highs against the 85 year mean, but the PDO+ is fighting the La Nina hard on the moisture side of it. Halfway through the winter we're already wetter than all but nine of the past 26 La Ninas. The 10-mountain basins in New Mexico are actually 3% above normal right now, which is amazing too. Even the Sandias got over a foot of snow with the last system. You can fly into Albuquerque and be at a fully functional resort within 40 minutes.

Today is about the nastiest day I've seen in Albuquerque: - No Sun - No Snow (trying...but not yet) - low of 34F high of 43F - 90-100% humidity all day - record rain for this day in January (0.62" as of 10 pm) Mountains are going to look beautiful if the sun clears tomorrow. The PDO+ is a strong precipitation here in all months from Nov-May, save for Dec, so it's interesting seeing it win against the La Nina so far - was wet in Nov, now wet in Jan. In Dec, when the PDO+ isn't a big deal, we were average.

He's posting the same images in each thread...but if you go back far enough he says he is weatherfeen and is upset with the Mods?

Have had nearly half of inch of rain - not freezing rain, not sleet, not snow - with this system so far. But the dew point is finally dropping into the 30s, night is coming, and a trowal is forming. May get some wet snow later on, although wouldn't really stick. Mountains got some snow out of this, but was a pretty warm system for mid-January with snow levels above 7,500 feet for most of the event. This winter (Dec-Feb) is now well above average for Dec 1 - Jan 15 here. We average 0.70 inches precip in that period. Currently at 1.05", with a bit more likely tonight. Been remarkable how little snow we've had with the moisture, but I never liked the first half of the winter for ABQ anyway, second half is where it's at or at least that was my forecast idea.

I'm not sure how skillful the Jamstec is really. JB likes it in El Ninos. When I look at it, it seems to show some skill for precip in the SW (AZ/NM/CO/UT) but less so for temps.

For anyone curious, the Jamstec did trend wetter for some areas in the Spring.

European model has New Mexico, especially the mountains, getting a lot of snow the next ten days. It's great to see it. My analogs had a concentration of snowstorms in New Mexico around 1.29 to 2.3, so I have that period targeted for something big as well. Much of the snow shown below is with the system Friday Night to Monday Morning.

PDO came in at 1.17 for December (JISAO) fell big time from November (1.88) http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

I think Bill Gray assumed the AMO would be negative (for 30 years or so) by 2020 - still time for him to be right. I've seen papers from him in the late 80s claiming it would positive by 1995. There are other people who think it happens later in the 2020s. But it's not far. I kind of like 1940/1997 as the same position in the "climate clock", with 2017 thus akin as something like 1960 +/-3 years given the fluctuations in ENSO/solar.

The Atlantic (AMO) was still warm in December, but cooled a bit from November relative to the long-term averages. December was pretty cooler than 1937 and 1952 and a couple years in the late 1800s.

Amazing what snow and clouds can do up here, was supposed to be near 50F today, never got about 36F. Lows have finally been in the teens in Albuquerque. Got down to -33F this morning in Angel Fire (8600 feet up) - pretty cold even up there.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php Looks like the La Nina did weaken in December by this measure btw. Niño Regions Sea Surface Temperatures Last 12 Months MONTH NIÑO 1+2 NIÑO 3 NIÑO 4 NIÑO 3.4 TEMP ANOM TEMP ANOM TEMP ANOM TEMP ANOM January 2016 25.93°C (78.67°F) 1.41°C (2.54°F) 28.21°C (82.78°F) 2.58°C (4.64°F) 29.65°C (85.37°F) 1.35°C (2.43°F) 29.17°C (84.51°F) 2.60°C (4.68°F) February 2016 26.81°C (80.26°F) 0.67°C (1.21°F) 28.36°C (83.05°F) 1.99°C (3.58°F) 29.55°C (85.19°F) 1.45°C (2.61°F) 29.12°C (84.42°F) 2.40°C (4.32°F) March 2016 27.57°C (81.63°F) 0.93°C (1.67°F) 28.70°C (83.66°F) 1.57°C (2.83°F) 29.53°C (85.15°F) 1.34°C (2.41°F) 28.90°C (84.02°F) 1.68°C (3.02°F) April 2016 25.83°C (78.49°F) 0.23°C (0.41°F) 28.34°C (83.01°F) 0.84°C (1.51°F) 29.39°C (84.90°F) 0.89°C (1.60°F) 28.87°C (83.97°F) 1.09°C (1.96°F) May 2016 24.55°C (76.19°F) 0.27°C (0.49°F) 27.11°C (80.80°F) 0.03°C (0.05°F) 29.39°C (84.90°F) 0.60°C (1.08°F) 28.15°C (82.67°F) 0.30°C (0.54°F) June 2016 23.17°C (73.71°F) 0.29°C (0.52°F) 26.31°C (79.36°F) -0.12°C (-0.22°F) 29.36°C (84.85°F) 0.52°C (0.94°F) 27.53°C (81.55°F) -0.12°C (-0.22°F) July 2016 21.79°C (71.22°F) 0.17°C (0.31°F) 25.14°C (77.25°F) -0.48°C (-0.86°F) 29.06°C (84.31°F) 0.26°C (0.47°F) 26.73°C (80.11°F) -0.49°C (-0.88°F) August 2016 21.03°C (69.85°F) 0.39°C (0.70°F) 24.53°C (76.15°F) -0.46°C (-0.83°F) 28.68°C (83.62°F) 0.00°C (0.00°F) 26.28°C (79.30°F) -0.54°C (-0.97°F) September 2016 20.87°C (69.57°F) 0.53°C (0.95°F) 24.67°C (76.41°F) -0.18°C (-0.32°F) 28.48°C (83.26°F) -0.21°C (-0.38°F) 26.11°C (79.00°F) -0.61°C (-1.10°F) October 2016 21.18°C (70.12°F) 0.39°C (0.70°F) 24.47°C (76.05°F) -0.45°C (-0.81°F) 28.26°C (82.87°F) -0.40°C (-0.72°F) 25.96°C (78.73°F) -0.73°C (-1.31°F) November 2016 21.68°C (71.02°F) 0.09°C (0.16°F) 24.58°C (76.24°F) -0.40°C (-0.72°F) 28.27°C (82.89°F) -0.37°C (-0.67°F) 26.10°C (78.98°F) -0.55°C (-0.99°F) December 2016 23.25°C (73.85°F) 0.43°C (0.77°F) 24.75°C (76.55°F) -0.39°C (-0.70°F) 28.35°C (83.03°F) -0.14°C (-0.25°F) 26.15°C (79.07°F) -0.42°C (-0.76°F) Dec - Nov Difference 1.57°C 0.34°C 0.17°C 0.01°C 0.08°C 0.23°C 0.05°C 0.13°C 2.83°F 0.61°F 0.31°F 0.02°F 0.14°F 0.41°F 0.09°F 0.23°F

The kids here got a snow day because the dusting to 2 inches of snow came when it was 15-20F so it stuck to the roads. If any of you Texans want to ski, these are amazing numbers for a La Nina here - although the Gila Wilderness needs some help. Have a theory they may do well in Feb/Mar though.

I went for a walk once it started snowing here. It completely froze to my beard and I had little snow icicles coming down my face. New for me. We had borderline Blue Norther conditions - 45F at midnight to 16F at 4 am. 2-3 inches of snow on the ground, 1-2 on the road since it was 16-20F when most of it fell.

One of these damned years it is going to snow a lot in the mountains in March like it supposed to, but I don't think it is this year, so Jan 20 - Feb 20 is kind of my target for big snow here this year.

NWS ABQ call. I'm on board. WPC says my area of town (NE) has a non-zero (10-20%) shot at 4"+, but most likely we get 1-3" city wide or flurries to 2".

European thinks New Mexico does pretty well with the next storm. Would be 1-4" for Albuquerque. I start to trust the models for snow when they are within 72 hours, and this is essentially saying hours 60-66 are snowy for Albuquerque. NAM shows a boatload of snow too, but it only goes out to 60 hours. NAM actually tends to do pretty well with snow here. GFS isn't far off...just less snow in ABQ.

Sometimes I think the MEI/ONI are too focused on the actual observed values. I think the "weather" we experience may in fact be more determined by the change in the base state year over year in the winter. Going from an ONI of +2.2C to -0.7C or whatever it ends up at for DJF is one of the greatest year over year falls in the history of the ONI index, and the years with the big drop offs here behave very La Nina-y here. The handful of weak La Ninas or Neutrals that come after a very strong La Nina here are actually pretty decent winters a lot of the time, 1943, 1974, 2011 and a few others come to mind.

For anyone curious - the Oct/Nov/Dec ONI value remained constant at -0.8C. Just updated. It's a weak La Nina, but not "borderline" really. Was a little surprised it didn't weaken to -0.6C/-0.7C http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

After the massive spike in November, the PDO has weakened quite a bit in December according to NOAA. Will be good seeing the JISAO value in a few weeks. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ Expecting the AMO to drop too, not a whole lot of months like Nov 2016 where it reached >=0.400 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

I'm fairly optimistic for the late winter / early Spring. The La Nina signature looks like it weakened quite a bit in Oct-Dec, and the Atlantic temperature anomalies have cooled quite a bit in the last six weeks from near record warmth. Both are good for storms taking a southern track more consistently. By my count, Nino 3.4 has been above the La Nina threshold for 33 of the last 90 days, including 19 times in December. Expecting OND to come in around -0.5C to -0.6C, and then NDJ to be -0.5 or -0.4C at this point. More generally, even with the huge snows in late Feb 2015 in New Mexico, we've had three torch Februarys in a row here. I'm expecting a correction this year, even if it is only to "average" and note cold. The big rains/snows have been coming in 45 and 90 day increments though, so I wouldn't be shocked if February ended up snowy/rainy and cold given how November was. CPC has half of Arizona and NW New Mexico favored to be "wet" in January which is not exactly La Nina like, so even they be recognizing it is deteriorating. It is a bit similar to 1978 in that respect, as 1978 had a respectable La Nina in Fall that collapsed in Winter even though the rest of the Atlantic/Pacific are pretty different. New Canadian should be out in an hour or so, will be interesting to see what it thinks is going to happen. Suspect it will trend colder in the middle of the country and wetter in the West. Edit: It is wetter in the West!

Looks like the drought in much of California is shrinking. Pretty good match of the classic 'AMO/PDO' both positive drought expectation map except in the NW, due to the La Nina flavor. East Coast, California, Colorado drought definitely matches. May end up being a really nasty thunderstorm season in Spring if it stays warm/dry in the SE with big storms coming into the NW/SW

A lot of the years I like for the Southwest had strong systems coming through in January & February - and it's been ages since the mountains of northern New Mexico had their snowiest month in March, which is when it should happen based on history, so expecting something to break through in the next three months in a big way. The week from Jan 28 - Feb 3 has a boatload of snowy systems in the analogs for my area for what it's worth. Also, MJO, or just some other natural cycling seems to be sending major wetness to the SW every 45-days or so - Aug-->>late Sept--->Nov-->late Dec-->Feb. So if there is blocking in January, with the MJO cooperating, we may be in for some fun times. November was incredibly wet here, just wasn't cold - if we get the November pattern here with cold anomalies between now & March we get buried in snow.