raindancewx

I'll repeat my earlier complaint - its amazing that Monterrey, Brownsville, Houston, New Orleans, Savannah, Charleston, San Antonio and other cites have had snow this winter while it has barely rained here since September. The good news is...it is very cold today. So that's nice. I will say: One of my analogs, 1943, had multiple snow events into the deep South and TX, like down to the Gulf Coast, so that is actually verifying pretty well. You had a super warm Atlantic, neutral PDO, low solar activity, and an east-based "cold Neutral" look to ENSO that year. 1943 is like a colder version of 2008 nationally. Even the warm patch of waters north of the cold Nino 3/1.2 existed in 1943-44.

I have a theory that certain events repeat at relatively equal levels of sunlight, so been starting to look for some kind of "Harvey" effect in Spring 2018, since it hit in late August. To me, there are 59-non El Ninos for the 1931-32 to 2016-17 July-June years, if you separate out the ten non-El Nino years in that time-frame when TX was hit by a major hurricane from the remaining 49 years, one of the effects that pops out is a higher than normal chance of a very wet March in the Southwest: >=0.8" in non-El Nino, MH years in ABQ: 3/10 Marches >=0.8" in non-El Nino, other years in ABQ: 4/49 Marches You can say pretty safely that a "very wet" March is more likely in a non-El Nino after a Major Hurricane hits Texas. If you did it for >=1", its 2/10 v. 1/49 - quite literally 10x more likely than usual. https://mathcracker.com/z-test-for-two-proportions.php#results

It's kind of amusing see TX as one of the big winners for precipitation this winter - we're not even remotely close to Nina climatology at this point (40/90 days in). I know here, I should have ~0.63" for Dec 1-Jan 11 using 1951-2010, probably more using 1981-2010, so I'd say -0.5mm/day is about right here. The wet NW idea has absolutely not verified this winter, outside Montana.

My horrible dry streak was ended this morning - we got 0.03" of an inch of rain. First measurable precipitation since October 5, 2017, before we even knew who had a shot at the World Series or that there would be new tax policy for everyone. Flagstaff's snow-free streak ended last night as well, and they got ~1/6 of their winter precipitation in about six hours, now at 50% of normal precip out there.

I was playing with the observed SSTs in December for Nino 3.4 and Nino 1.2. Fairly strong correlations between Dec & the following March-May periods. I normalized the March-May periods against 1951-2010 means. The conversion factors from December SSTs to MAM work out to -0.27C in Nino 3.4 for MAM, and -0.37C for Nino 1.2 in MAM. That configuration can be replicated with SSTs for MAM 1961, 1981, 1981, 1984, 2006. The configuration is based on correlations, which means they'll probably be off somewhat. To offset that, I ran 13 cases, where Nino 3.4 / Nino 1.2 come in near but not exactly at -0.27C and -0.37C. I then looked at subsurface conditions, and weighted each of the 13 scenarios at 1,2,5,10,15,25 points. I re-produced all 13 scenarios using historical years with similar conditions, and then looked at the years that appeared most frequently in the higher weighted scenarios. Given the subsurface looks like this, I assumed Nino 1.2 was more likely to come in colder than the correlation implies, while Nino 3.4 was more likely to come in warmer than the correlation implies. The scenarios that had Nino 1.2 warming massively relative to the correlation were thus weighted less, as were the scenarios that had Nino 3.4 cooling massively relative to the correlation. Cases MAM Risks Points Scenario 3.4 1.2 % 1 -0.67 -0.37 5% 2 -0.47 -0.37 5% 3 -0.27 -0.37 25% 4 -0.07 -0.37 15% 5 0.13 -0.37 10% 6 -0.27 -0.77 10% 7 -0.27 -0.57 15% 8 -0.27 -0.17 5% 9 -0.27 0.03 5% 10 -0.67 -0.77 1% 11 -0.47 -0.57 2% 12 -0.07 -0.17 1% 13 0.13 0.03 1% Using those weights, I then did one final filter, adding three points to low solar years, and subtracting three points from high solar years for March-May to help sort out ties for weighting. A fair number of El Nino winters that were rapidly transitioning to La Ninas came up, will be interesting to see if we have the reverse of that. Anyway, the top 12 Springs were: 2006 (x4), 1984 (x3), 1981 (x3), 1961 (x2), 1977 (x1), 1963 (x1), 1986 (x1), 1978 (x1), 1988 (x1), 1960 (x1), 1973 (x1), 2003 (x1) That blend is relatively close to what has happened in December, especially if you use Dec 8 - Jan 6 as December. The long and the short of this is, the weighted blend is pretty wet for me in March, which hasn't happened since 2007. With my weights, solar factors, etc, the ONI would be -0.19C for Nino 3.4 in MAM, and -0.46C in MAM in Nino 1.2 Given the subsurface conditions, and the match to Dec 8 - Jan 6, plus my various simulations, fairly confident the map will look like below in MAM.

The period for mid-Dec to mid-Jan will obviously be colder for the US, but for December itself, not really a cold month nationally. With a couple of modifications, December 1980 was a good match. I threw in 1943 & 2011 to make the Upper Midwest warmer, and 2012 to make the SE/NE warmer. You have "less" of a break in the heat in my analogs than this year in a couple spots (NW, SE, TX) but its close nonetheless.

The European, NAM, and GFS all have valley rain and mountain snow for NM this week. Tues/Weds cold see the end to the absurdly long stretch of days without precipitation. Would be a good snow event if the European verifies.

The dewpoint has skyrocketed, all the way back to 30F...from 3 this time last night...but not looking like we'll get any measurable rain overnight. Close though, only missed by 20 miles or so. Of course...its 48 at 3 am as a result. Will be up to the next storm to break the dry-streak sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Would imagine you guys get a big snow event between the big cold snap now and the big thaw coming later in the month. I haven't seen precip since October 5th, but we've got two shots at it the next six days if you believe the European, if those systems verify with measurable precip here, it will be because they are stronger/further south than any systems in the past three months and some different areas downwind of the SW should get some snow / rain too.

GFS and Euro have a relatively similar solution for a storm around the 11th, maybe 0.2" to 0.5" for the city. Snow levels...probably above the city for most to all of the event but good for the mountains. Will change though. Hopefully the models still have it tonight. Its nice to see the GFS, which had nothing for the period, cave to the Euro which has had this for two-three days now.

I'm getting really annoyed with this pattern - Monterrey, Brownsville, Houston, New Orleans, Tallahassee, Savannah have all seen snow before me this winter...and we haven't had any precip since Oct 5. It is neat to have a fairly cold winter for lows for once, that hasn't happened in a while, but I really hope the big storm the Euro shows next week verifies or we're going to have some major water issues here in Spring and Summer. I had 2005/2008 as analogs, and it was snowy in the South in 2008, and it was very dry here in 2005-06, but really was expecting other looks to the pattern which haven't shown up yet. Oh well, still time yet.

The Canadian update is showing one of the biggest month/month trends toward wetness I've ever seen it do in the SW for February. Let's hope it shows it again next month. Might be reacting to the Nina falling apart in Nino 1.2, or the SOI collapse in December?

New Canadian has trended colder for January in the majority of the country. Lot wetter for this area of the country too.

Did an experimental blend of the SOI drop (8-16 in Nov to <0 in Dec), low precip in Oct-Dec in ABQ, no precip in Dec in ABQ (pretty rare actually), and the US temperature anomaly profile for December to produce January. This is what I got - its a blend of 17 years, with 1951 (nada Dec, dry Fall), 1955 (US temp pattern Dec), 1996 (dry Fall, US temp pattern) weighted twice. Nada Decembers are rare since 1931 here, only 1950, 1956, 1963, 1981, 1996 - so for recency and comparable rarity that is given the same weight as the dry Falls.

Closing in on three full months without precipitation here. I was pretty worried about my analog blend for the month, but anomalies went toward the analogs over time. On the 20th, when the Northern Plains were +15, my "near average" idea for ND/MT/MN near Canada looked terrible, but since the 20th, an incredible correction began toward the analogs, in both the Northern Plains & Southeast where the signs were wrong v. what I forecast through 20 days. Will be curious to see how the final anomalies look

I'm rooting hard for the ongoing SOI crash. Currently down to -3.1 for Dec 1-27. Over +10 in Nov and Oct. Think it will may end up lower than that by month end. It isn't correlated super strongly with January precipitation, but it is fairly strongly correlated with January-March. Current reading (-3.1) would be 1.32", +/-1.25" at 95% certainty using the Dec SOI readings for 1931-2016 against Jan-Mar 1932-2017.

Anyone want to guess when we'll get some weather down here? Last measurable precipitation was October 5th - longest dry streak here since 1956. European ensembles seem to be hinting at January 4th or so. It's been neat watching the cold return to the Northern Plains - the high in Bismarck for Dec 1-20 was 42.5F, but for Dec 1-26 its down to 35.4F, cold is slaughtering huge amounts of the heat, but suspect the Northern Plains end up at +4 to +6 anyway, the mean December high for Bismarck for 1951-2010 is 26.1F, so 30/31F is still pretty warm. Obviously the deeper into the month you get, the harder it is for daily anomalous heat/cold to change the monthly anomalies. We're going to end up at 52F/53F with no meaningful snow for the mountains or valleys since October in NM, going to be a horrible May-June for fires without a huge turn around. The huge heat in the Northern Plains / AZ/CA with a cold NE is often a strong wet signal down here for March, which would be nice. Hasn't been wet (+20%) in March against the means sinc 2007.

I was playing with Nino 1.2 temperature correlations earlier today - its interesting that it isn't working this December. Long-term trend, and pretty strong at that - is for the Northern Plains to be cold in December if Nino 1.2 is cold in November. It's trending colder there now at the end of the month, but Bismarck looks like it will be +5 or so by the end of the month nonetheless. The areas that are coldest in Mexico this month should also be warmest - pretty strong trend. The yellows/blues are pretty strong relationships for ~68 year period. The super hot November, centered on NM/CO makes a lot of sense looking at the composites, cold Nino 1.2 Oct = hot November for that area for 1948-2016. I was pleasantly surprised to see NM is near the 0 mark for February's correlation to March, it seems like cold Nino 1.2 has the strongest temperature impact here in November, then it fades to no impact by March, before gaining in power again.

This is just for fun...but all five Decembers here without rain/snow at at were followed by cold Aprils here, and the composite is cold nationally, literally no one above the +1F threshold for April highs against 1951-2010. I'm sure something will get screwed up, but its interesting nonetheless.

I'm rooting for the cold forecast to come into the Northern Plains to fail to some degree. In La Nina years, the December mean high in Bismarck (27 La Ninas from 1930-31 to 2016-17) is 24F. When the high is above 24F in Bismarck in La Nina Decembers, tend to get snow down here in March. Mean high for Dec 1-20 in Bismarck is 42.5F, the models have it falling to the low 30s by the end of the month with highs in the teens and single digits.

Have to do some more replications, but using the extended data for Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4, and the PDO, can just about replicate winter precipitation for Albuquerque for last year. Harder to do then it looks, not many years with negatives in Nino 3.4 that are positive in Nino 1.2 like last year. PDO Data: http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt (N-A is Nov-Apr PDO value) Nino 1.2 (1951-2000 base, constant anomalies): https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino12.long.anom.data (DJF mean used) Nino 3.4 (1951-2000 base, constant anomalies): https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data (DJF mean used) ABQ N-A DJF DJF Precip Year PDO 3.4 1.2 DJF 1942 0.01 -1.21 -0.01 1.61 1982 0.95 2.33 2.80 2.59 1983 1.45 -0.76 -0.13 0.75 1983 1.45 -0.76 -0.13 0.75 1983 1.45 -0.76 -0.13 0.75 1984 0.75 -1.11 -0.65 2.39 1984 0.75 -1.11 -0.65 2.39 1984 0.75 -1.11 -0.65 2.39 1997 1.24 2.27 3.71 1.80 Mean 0.98 -0.25 0.46 1.71 2016 1.06 -0.29 0.43 1.90 Blend for the current winter would be 1934, 1934, 1954, 1985, 1996, 1996, 2007, assuming +0.25 for the PDO in Nov-Apr, -0.65C for Nino 3.4 in DJF, and -0.80C in Nino 3.4 in DJF. Would imply it gets much wetter at some point, correcting hard toward average. If I'm not cold enough for the PDO, Nino 3.4, or Nino 1.2, would be drier.

^^ It's possible, but for the 90-day period of winter, we're 21% (19/90) through, and the anomalies are around +12F or more in places in the Northern Plains. I think of it like this, to be even average, you solve for x, where x is the departure value for remainder of winter to get the northern plains to average: (0.21 * 12) + (0.79*x) = 0 2.53 + 0.79x = 0 -2.53 = 0.79x x = -3.2F So it has to be over 3F below normal (-3.2F) the rest of the winter just for them to get to normal. I had ND at +0F to +1F for the winter, but even that's pretty hard.

I enjoy reading Weatherbell's seasonal outlooks, but going to be pretty hard to get to this: Given this: Warmest area of the country right now is the place they thought would be coldest.

Dewpoint is back into the 30s here for the first time in ages, I think the STJ is going to be more of a factor later in the winter, especially since we're at ~75 days here without precipitation and something, somehow, has to get down here to bring rain or snow given the all-time precip-free streak here is 109 days. It's trying to snow tonight (37F, 30F dew point), but don't think it will. The SOI has been running very negative for the first time since June 30 - July 3, so would expect some kind of change to the pattern in 2-3 weeks at the latest. 30 Nov 2017 1012.32 1006.05 21.57 10.40 9.20 1 Dec 2017 1012.99 1006.60 13.86 10.80 9.27 2 Dec 2017 1013.34 1007.50 11.00 10.93 9.37 3 Dec 2017 1011.81 1007.60 2.54 10.78 9.25 4 Dec 2017 1011.90 1006.85 6.90 10.44 9.08 5 Dec 2017 1012.14 1005.40 15.67 10.64 9.10 6 Dec 2017 1011.16 1005.40 10.59 10.86 9.21 7 Dec 2017 1011.15 1006.10 6.90 10.98 9.35 8 Dec 2017 1012.17 1006.60 9.60 10.69 9.45 9 Dec 2017 1013.21 1007.35 11.11 10.71 9.44 10 Dec 2017 1012.44 1008.50 1.14 10.63 9.30 11 Dec 2017 1011.42 1009.65 -10.12 10.31 9.11 12 Dec 2017 1010.50 1008.95 -11.26 9.93 8.85 13 Dec 2017 1010.91 1008.20 -5.24 9.53 8.67 14 Dec 2017 1009.89 1007.85 -8.72 8.83 8.54 15 Dec 2017 1008.75 1007.45 -12.56 8.02 8.44 16 Dec 2017 1007.94 1007.90 -19.10 6.86 8.27 17 Dec 2017 1007.96 1008.10 -20.03 5.77 8.07

It's kind of incredible looking on Ryan Maue's new page to see how cold the European thinks it will get here around Christmas. High of 22F would be 24F below normal here. High is forecast at 12F in Santa Fe, with a low around -10F. Those are not common readings out here for areas that are populated.