raindancewx

The AMO & 8/1 ice extent, for 1979-2017 when compared to 1979-2016, saw an increased r-value relationship. Jan-May AMO value is down 0.16 from last year (+0.08 v. +0.24). Theoretically worth around 0.5 million sq km in sea ice extent.

Saturday looks like a pretty good day for precipitation in the SW. Fingers crossed.

Looks like the city had 0.5-1.0 inches of rain today, with areas west of town reporting up to 3 inches and a couple confirmed tornado. Lots of hail and thunder around too. Rained so hard it was actually fell into the upper 50s around 3 pm, which is an amazing outcome for June.

Possibility of heavy rain, hail, thunderstorms, tornadoes on Sunday for much of New Mexico. Might give the city the first wet June since 2010. CAPE (up to 2000j/kg?) and Bulk sheer values look fairly impressive for this part of the world.

CPC, the CFS and the GFS currently like a wet June for NM - let's do it. Kill the heat.

With the Pacific fairly Neutral now, the Atlantic and solar conditions are probably going to drive the pattern for 6-8 weeks. Cold AMO in May is fairly strongly linked to a colder June for TX and parts of NM too - we will see.

CFS has been trying to hint at a wet June for a little while now, which is what my analogs have been showing down here for a while. Early onset monsoon, then ends early.

Pending this next little system, I believe we've had only 2 days here (Albuquerque) with over 0.10" precipitation since Oct 1. Very rare here, we're not Yuma, tied with three other years for fewest >0.1" days since 1892.

We were 40F or so on Friday afternoon, I'd call it a Blue Norther level cold front. Wind was fierce and unrelenting. Midnight high of 54F though.

MJO is active once again, it is currently in phase 7 and should be in phase 2 by mid-April. Have to watch for cold in the SW and severe weather in the Plains and mid-south.

Expecting trace to 0.20" here tomorrow with the storm coming through. If we get over 0.13" on 3/27, this becomes the wettest March since 2010 for Albuquerque. If we get over 0.31" tomorrow, wettest March since 2007 (!)

The models have been hinting at a decent to historic precipitation event for NM next week for about 36-hours now. Hope it verifies! Been enjoying this March, its 3:20 pm on 3/21 and have yet to hit 70F officially at the long-term observation site for the city. Last year it happened on 2/10. Also, we've had seven lows of 32F or less this month, that hasn't happened since 2012. The SOI dropped over 40 points a few days ago, from +36 to -8, so I think some kind of big system coming through next week makes sense. The 3/1-3/21 SOI is still +6.4, so its been exceptionally volatile this month, readings of -8.4 to +35.9. So far (1/1-3/20) 2018 is 2.6F colder than last year.

The SOI popped to +35.9 in the most recent reading, and it looks very strongly positive to me over the next week to ten days. Here is a look at what that does to April historically - its a strong warm signal for TX, a strong cold signal for the coastal NW, and a strong wet signal for the western Dakotas, but a strong dry signal for the NM/TX/MX border areas, and the Virginia mountains. SOI is currently +8.41 for March 1-17 (it was -7.7 in February)

For the first 1/5 of 2018, ABQ is running 1.6F colder than last year, with the lows in running almost 3F colder. March looks like it has a real chance of finishing 3-8F colder than last year here. High from 3/9 to 3/15 this year is 11F colder than last year. The 3/9-3/22 period had an average high of 76.5F in 2017, won't be anywhere near that in 2018. Its been years since we've gone so deep into the year without a 70F reading here, only recent year to make it longer is 2010, when it took until 3/29. Our first, official 70F day is probably 3/22 or later. May finish March without hitting 75F...it hit 75F last year on February 10th. First 75F reading is usually around 3/26, so its not unusual that we haven't hit that level yet, but it doesn't look like it will happen in the next week either. The blend of 1st 75F reading as a date and February SOI reading is a strong indicator for the average March high, so will be interesting to see when we do hit 75F, if it is in April or March.

Giant line of precipitation formed...north, south, and west of me. Really hope we get something with this system. Haven't had a wet March in the city since 2007.

Fairly happy with how my winter outlook turned out for this region of the US, and really most of the US besides the interior West - for anyone who read it in mid-October.

Record dry soundings here today (dewpoint: -15F right now at 8:40 pm, 43F air temp). I'm rooting for the low tomorrow morning to get to 22F. That would be the coldest March reading in the city since 2008. If we get to 16F, that's the coldest March reading in the city since 2002. The 1931-2017 record for March is +8F. If we had snow on the ground with this airmass I think we've have a shot at it, but without the snow, can't see it dropping below 15F in any scenario. I'd assuming 19F, +/-4F. Models can't seem to decide if the MJO keeps going (BOM), reverses back into phase two (Euro), or just dies. Consensus might be slow movement in/around phase 2/3 for another 3-5 days? The Euro has something like the light-blue line, BOM the red line. Given how cold it was today (28F low, 50F high) here wouldn't be surprised if it was back into phase 2 already.

We have yet to hit 70F down here, and are now up to 73 frosts through 3/2 (probably won't get one today). It was 75F on 2/10 and then 70F on 2/11 last year, so this is more typical, with the first 70F reading of the year usually around 3/8. The European has been trying to go to what my analogs had for March: a wet period mid-month, sandwiched between two dry periods (3/1-3/6 and 3/21-3/31). Theoretically, it should also be a lot colder than last March, as Nino 1.2 is colder than last year, and there is some blocking, with we've seen drier nights year/year each month since December. Feb SOI is a good indicator on highs in March, as is first 70F day. If/when we get decent precip in March...I think we're done for significant precipitation down here until June, when the data suggests the monsoon develops early and fierce. Amarillo has had exactly 0.01 inches of rain for the Oct 14-March 2 period. It seems like SOME kind of pattern is WAY overdue that can bring that area some precipitation. I'm not sure i believe an area of the US outside maybe Yuma is capable of getting that little rain for much more than a six month period.

Maybe this event gets eaten away from the East? I'd assumed the warmth would come to Nino 1.2 last, but its probably going to be warmer than average in March after the cold February. Nino 1.2 was 23.32C in January (-0.9C v. 1951-2000), probably ~25.10C (-0.6C v. 1951-2000) in February, but the trend is up, and fast, so maybe 26.5C in March (+0.4C v. 1951-2000)?

Can't wait to see what the Canadian has for March on 2/28. The CFS seems to be trying really hard to combine low-solar La Nina conditions with the big -SOI drop (low-solar El Nino). I made this after last March for future reference -

The MJO forecast site hasn't updated but BOM data is through 2/20 now, and it looks like the European forecast on 2/19 underestimated the magnitude of the MJO against. It was still in phase 8 on 2/20. Also, the big SOI reversal has started, BOM had a +14.65 reading for 2/22. The Feb 1-22 value is now up to -14.5. The monthly value will be anywhere from -8 to -16 if values were to be in the -16 to +16 range for the rest of the month. I do think the next six days are mostly positive, so I think the real value is probably (~90%) -8 to -12 at this point, outside chance of -7 or -13, if you get one or two incredible high/low reading in the next six, say a +35 or a random -10 to offset the mostly positive look. If we end up with only slightly positive values, <1.4, this is a 20-point drop from January, something that has happened only 14-times since 1931.

The CFS still has a cold West, warm NE kind of look for March. I think its struggling with the SOI crash (still -15.9 Feb 1-21) with the La Nina base state. But, I was able to roughly re-produce what it shows, with the caveat that it is no where near low enough on the SOI in the blend. I'm sure it will change its mind too. It had Albuquerque +9F for February on 1/31, which looks pretty bad now, we'll probably be +3F to +5F, a lot closer to the Canadian's +6F for February. It hasn't rained meaningfully in Amarillo in like four+ months now, so that seems like a good idea for an area of heat/dryness if the ridge over the SE this month goes West.

After scoring local conditions for DJF (estimating Feb), looking at Feb Nino 1.2, Feb Nino 3.4, Solar Conditions, and converting the extended SST data in Nino 1.2 & Nino 3.4 that goes back to 1870 to ERSST V.5 temperatures for 1931-1949, incorporating the ongoing February SOI crash, the MJO, and years after major hurricanes hit TX...I ended up with this - This is probably a better blend overall than above, as its close on local conditions too, and solar conditions, since 1933-34, and 1980-81 are included. Four years when TX was hit by a major hurricane show up among the top-20 matches to this winter here (roughly double the frequency of the poorer analogs). DJF just means its February 1934 conditions, but the winter started in 1933, and the major hurricane was in 1933. DJF? is my assessment of whether the winter highs/precip matched 2017-18 well overall. 1933-34 is overall, the second best match since 1931-32. I generally lower/raise March precipitation estimates for ABQ by solar activity, since every 100-sunspots here accounts for about 0.11" in March. I did that here too (under March column), but since my SOI blend isn't nearly low enough, it offsets the solar loss and then some.

MJO entered phase 8 on 2/19. The big key for March is whether it returns to meaningless amplitude today (2/20), or if it transitions to phase one today at increasing amplitude. The European has entry to phase 2 on 2/23, before the wave finally dies on 2/28. I'm hoping it slows down at high amplitude one more time. NM snow pack has slowly recovered, but still well below average. The very cold temperatures today do help for sure (39F at 3 pm). The February SOI crash remains massive: Feb 1-20 is at -16.5. For the life of me, its nearly impossible to come up with February Nino 1.2 & Nino 3.4 readings as cold as February 2018 will be, that have a big negative SOI crash. Joe Bastardi likes February 1962, but the SOI & Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4 regions are all going to be lower values than 1962. The blends I can come up with that are relatively close on all three indexes all show relatively opposite patterns to what the CFS has, although it is backing off on heat in the West. Something like this is the simplest blend I could think of that's close on the SOI, Nino 1.2, Nino 3.4 readings I expect February 2018. Big -SOI readings in February do tend to warm up the NW/N. Plains in March, so the blend has most of the West warm, not cold, like the CFS shows. DJF FSOI F 1.2 F 3.4 1970 15.5 24.42 25.18 1980 -4.2 24.93 26.11 1985 -12.1 26.00 26.05 2004 -29.5 25.16 27.11 Mean -7.58 25.13 26.11 2017 -11.00 25.10 25.90 Congratulations to the Northeast! Philadelphia is in the 70s today. Yet to happen here.

Rained in Amarillo!