raindancewx

NOAA / CPC stuff is largely back today. ONI was +0.9C for OND as expected (more like +0.85) https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.50 26.65 0.85 CPC uses 26.45C for Nino 3.4 "average" temps in January. Weeklies imply January is still in El Nino territory. Remember, these are centered, so it is through 1/26. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 For 1/1-1/26 using the weeklies, I get 27.1C or so in Nino 3.4, which is still about +0.65C. I do think going into Spring, before this event collapses, it will have more of a Modoki look than the east/basin wide look we've seen in Dec and early January.

The Jamstec updated the weekly Modoki values on their site through mid-January. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.weekly.txt The values are consistent with the event hitting a near ideal Modoki-El Nino look in early Fall, peaking around Halloween, before gradually become more East-based. I am expecting a reversion to a Modoki El Nino look in Spring for what its worth, and the subsurface data for January (+0.7C 100-180W) implies some El Nino influence through Apr 1 at least. 2018:10:3:0 0.654059 2018:10:10:0 0.74381 2018:10:17:0 0.720227 2018:10:24:0 0.766743 2018:10:31:0 1.07251 2018:11:7:0 0.57872 2018:11:14:0 0.51636 2018:11:21:0 0.571958 2018:11:28:0 0.745371 2018:12:5:0 0.552251 2018:12:12:0 0.579795 2018:12:19:0 0.559226 2018:12:26:0 0.314525 2019:1:2:0 0.575521 2019:1:9:0 0.307292 2019:1:16:0 0.231463 Here is a look at 2009 and 2002 for comparison. The calculation is Box A (165E-140W, 10S-10N) - Box B * 0.5 (110W-70W, 15S-5N) - Box C * 0.5 (125E-145E, 10S-20N) 2009:10:7:0 0.521472 2009:10:14:0 0.832267 2009:10:21:0 0.949581 2009:10:28:0 0.986342 2009:11:4:0 0.941528 2009:11:11:0 0.983712 2009:11:18:0 1.04028 2009:11:25:0 1.05629 2009:12:2:0 0.92937 2009:12:9:0 0.898777 2009:12:16:0 1.08688 2009:12:23:0 0.909425 2009:12:30:0 0.791051 2010:1:6:0 1.04744 2010:1:13:0 1.10023 2002:10:2:0 0.716192 2002:10:9:0 0.694229 2002:10:16:0 0.396019 2002:10:23:0 0.699218 2002:10:30:0 0.572236 2002:11:6:0 0.561524 2002:11:13:0 0.73446 2002:11:20:0 0.562245 2002:11:27:0 0.695123 2002:12:4:0 0.54672 2002:12:11:0 0.512048 2002:12:18:0 0.586731 2002:12:25:0 0.563768 2003:1:1:0 0.428649 2003:1:8:0 0.723686 2003:1:15:0 0.819688 The monthly data shows a spike in Box B, the Eastern Pacific, as the event became more basin wide for a while. That continued into Dec and Jan, and has driven down the Modoki values since Halloween.

It is amazing seeing the different outcomes in this region so far -

We should finally be getting an update on ONI for OND, and maybe a few other NOAA things with the shutdown temporarily resolved - I would think? Also, the SOI had its first big daily crash (+4.4 to -6.4) since 12/18-12/19. Drops of 10 points within two days almost always lead to a storm in the SW US in about 10 days. A drop of 10+ in a single day is typically something that precedes a bigger storm or wave of storms. Last time the SOI dropped by 10+ in a day, we had around a month of precipitation on 12/26-12/28. The SOI for January will probably finish negative, but it is only at -2.9 through 1/26. These are the top SOI matches for February if the SOI remains at around -2.9 for January - SOI Monthly Nov Dec Jan Closeness 2018 0.6 9.2 -2.9 0.0 1954 2.3 11.5 -5.5 6.6 1945 -3.4 5.4 -3.1 8.0 1996 -0.1 7.3 3.5 9.0 1993 0.4 0.7 -2.1 9.5 1960 6.8 5.9 -3.1 9.7 1956 2.3 8.5 4.5 9.8 The subsurface still looks like it is only slowly weakening. Not seeing evidence of a coming rapid collapse like in early 2007 or 2016 or 1998. Some of the pool by 180W looks like it will eventually work up and East into Nino 3.4

We had a single day 10 point SOI drop 1/25 to 1/26. Last time that happened was 12/18-12/19 and it preceded the wave of storms running through the SW from about 12/26 to 1/15. I don't really buy anything the models show right now since the MJO expectations are a mess, but we'll probably get to at least phase 7 at high amplitude.

Subsurface is hanging on. Finish around +0.7 for January would be interesting for February.

I was looking at annualized sunspot activity in various US locations v. March high temperatures. Looked at Boston, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Detroit, St. Louis, Memphis, Bismarck, Amarillo, El Paso, Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Phoenix, Cheyenne. Just about every site has weak correlations between solar activity and March highs, but the zone around Amarillo is definitely strongest. R squared for Amarillo for 1932-2018 is 0.10 - that's pretty damn strong. Every 100 sunspots lost is like 2F added to the high. The weakest correlations are in areas right on the coast, especially away from the equator. A lot of places seem to have a weak correlation just because 1958 was cold and had near record solar activity, but in Texas and the Southern Plains it works in the other high solar years too.

CPC has the Eastern Nino zones warmer than the Western zones this week like Tropical Tidbits. This is winter so far. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 Nino 1.2 is pretty warm so far in January. Here is a look at Nino 1.2 - Nino 3.4 for week three in January for each El Nino to get an idea on El Nino structures at this time: 1991-92: -1.7C, 1994-95: -0.2C, 1997-98: +1.3C, 2002-03: -1.5C, 2004-05: -0.2C, 2006-07: -0.2C, 2009-10: -1.3C, 2014-15: -1.0C, 2015-16: -1.1C, 2018-19: +0.4C 01JAN1992 24.0 0.3 26.7 1.3 28.5 1.9 29.3 1.0 08JAN1992 24.2 0.2 26.8 1.3 28.5 1.9 29.2 0.9 15JAN1992 24.6 0.2 26.9 1.3 28.4 1.9 29.1 0.8 04JAN1995 24.7 0.8 26.1 0.7 27.6 1.1 29.3 0.9 11JAN1995 25.1 0.9 26.2 0.7 27.6 1.0 29.2 0.9 18JAN1995 25.3 0.8 26.4 0.7 27.6 1.0 29.3 1.0 07JAN1998 28.0 4.0 28.9 3.4 29.2 2.6 29.1 0.8 14JAN1998 28.4 4.0 28.9 3.3 29.1 2.5 29.0 0.7 21JAN1998 28.4 3.7 28.9 3.2 29.0 2.4 28.9 0.7 01JAN2003 24.2 0.6 26.6 1.2 28.1 1.5 29.4 1.1 08JAN2003 23.9-0.1 26.3 0.8 27.9 1.3 29.2 0.9 15JAN2003 24.1-0.3 26.3 0.7 27.7 1.2 29.3 1.0 05JAN2005 23.7-0.2 25.7 0.3 27.1 0.5 29.3 0.9 12JAN2005 24.2 0.0 25.9 0.3 27.1 0.5 29.2 0.9 19JAN2005 25.0 0.3 26.0 0.3 27.1 0.5 29.2 0.9 03JAN2007 24.3 0.5 26.4 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.2 0.8 10JAN2007 24.9 0.7 26.7 1.1 27.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 17JAN2007 25.0 0.4 26.4 0.7 27.2 0.6 28.8 0.6 06JAN2010 24.3 0.4 26.7 1.2 28.3 1.7 29.7 1.3 13JAN2010 24.6 0.3 26.7 1.1 28.2 1.6 29.6 1.3 20JAN2010 24.7 0.1 26.5 0.8 28.0 1.4 29.5 1.2 07JAN2015 23.7-0.2 25.9 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.1 0.7 14JAN2015 24.0-0.4 25.9 0.3 27.1 0.5 29.1 0.9 21JAN2015 24.3-0.4 26.1 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.2 1.0 06JAN2016 25.7 1.8 28.1 2.7 29.1 2.6 29.7 1.4 13JAN2016 25.7 1.4 28.3 2.8 29.2 2.6 29.6 1.3 20JAN2016 26.0 1.4 28.2 2.5 29.1 2.5 29.6 1.4

Low Solar + El Nino in March is an interesting combo historically.

I found a free site that stored SST, Snow, Precip and Temperature data from ESRL before the shutdown, through 11/30/2018 if anyone wants to use it - https://www.frontierweather.com/monthlyclimatemaps.html Main limitation is it only goes back to 1950 and you can't combine years into composites. The Jamstec forecast for Spring has essentially gone from a Spring 1977 look to a Spring 2005 look. I kind of like the look of Spring 1970 actually. 2005 sort of briefly died as a La Nina in March before warming again briefly, whereas 1977 was more steady in Spring, I don't know if that is what the Jamstec is seeing. I don't think we'll go to another El Nino (I'd love to be wrong) - like 1977 after 1976 but I don't think a La Nina is imminent either. I'm still debating on weighting and inclusion but I'll probably end up blending 5-8 of these years for my Spring forecast - 1941-42, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1969-70, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2014-15, and then I'll throw in some combination of 1974-75, 1998-99, or 2008-09 to account for the positive SOI in December and the slow weakening of the El Nino. I actually consider 1974-75 to be a better analog than most of the El Ninos, because it was a +1.3C warm up in Nino 3.4 year/year, had low solar, and a major hurricane hit the Gulf of Mexico. You don't have many warm ups y/y of that magnitude in Nino 3.4 in the last 100 years, regardless of the ENSO state.

It looks like the Jamstec Model updated. It may be using ESRL data, since it doesn't include an initialized value for December like it normally would for its Jan 1 update. The update has El Nino conditions lasting until June, but that is an earlier end than before, when they lasted until Fall. The East is shown colder than the last run, with the Northern Plains & WA state warm both times, and NM/CO cold on both runs. The Western US and SE are shown wet, with areas of the Plains wet too. East trended drier. Here is a look at how well the Jan 2018 Jamstec run did for Spring 2018. It did quite well actually -

My hunch is this event just weakens slowly for having a relatively low peak, but we don't have another El Nino next year. My point above is that the years like 2003, 2007, 2010, 2015 (before it redeveloped later in March) all weakened very rapidly in January or February at the subsurface and then the pattern went nuts for the NE. January doesn't seem to be showing rapid weakening. February might, but Tropical Tidbits has been showing a recovery in most zones lately, after the extended -SOI burst earlier in the month (and more -SOI days look likely by 1/31 too). The event still kind of looks like an East-Central / Basin Wide hybrid, with the core of the heat near 120W, oscillating east/west of that area at times but never too far. The subsurface is still weakening I think, but its not dead yet like 2006-07 or 2002-03, or clearly moving that way like 2015-16. To me, this pattern has been driven as much by the transition from the La Nina last year as the El Nino this year. The El Ninos after La Ninas tend to be colder in the West, and that has shown up this year. The absence of a canonical positive PDO (waters by Japan still look like a -PDO, and the blob by Alaska is cooling, not warming since Fall), and the +SOI in December are all examples of things that wouldn't have been there if we had transitioned from a Neutral or Modoki La Nina into this El Nino instead of from an East-based La Nina that at times (Jan 2018) had the coldest waters by Peru in decades.

The subsurface numbers for January (300m down, 100W-180W) look like they'll come in around +0.7. A similar transition for Nov-Dec-Jan would be these years blended as a guideline for February. 100-180W Nov Dec Jan 1979 1.06 0.92 0.83 1979 1.06 0.92 0.83 1982 1.92 1.45 0.05 1991 1.22 1.71 1.57 1994 1.16 0.80 0.51 2002 1.58 0.74 0.27 2009 1.75 1.36 1.14 2014 0.90 0.54 0.15 Mean 1.33 1.06 0.67 2018 1.35 1.06 0.70 Here is a look at what those years looked like in February nationally. A lot of the the years with very cold February temps in the US are El Nino with a big collapse in the January subsurface to below El Nino thresholds (+0.5) (2002-03, 2006-07 in the Midwest, 2014-15). Slower fall offs, like this year tend to be less extreme for cold and heat. Big positive SOI Decembers (like the +9.1 in Dec 2018) tend to precede a warm February in the South, and hold down temps on the West Coast, so with the SOI blended in, I think the core of the cold in February is likely over Missouri, rather than say Ohio or New York. With the analog site down, I'm just guessing what the blend looks like, but it seems like a near normal WA/OR/SE US, cold centered in Missouri is what I like for February. Warmth is in the interior NW. It's kind of a warm West / cold East pattern turned 45 degrees to the right from the SOI if that makes any sense since the +SOI December should not impact the SW too much, but will warm up the SE and cool off the NW. Given how the years looked, and the SOI in December, Feb 1983, 1992, 2015 as a simpler blend is probably approximately right. Again, ESRL is down, can't graph these, so I am guessing on the exact look of the blends.

Blue Norther level cold front in the coming days. CPC is impressively confident in the cold, they rate this as a 4/5 confidence in the discussion. We hit 50F here today, first time since Christmas, three weeks ago. Latest in January we've had our first 50F reading since Jan 1977.

My concern initially, for say, five days, is the MJO will move through phases 4-5-6, which are warm this time of the year for the East, sometime between 1/20 and 1/25 if the European depiction is right at fairly high magnitude. I do think the real transition is starting now, my analogs had 5" in Boston through mid-January and then 30" after, so its kind of right on time, but the transition is late enough that I think most places in the East finish slightly warmer than normal for DJF overall. Also, I don't think it will last six weeks for the whole country, I think the core of it is between the Rockies and Mississippi by mid-February, but I agree with your assessment generally.

Roughly half way through Dec-Feb, the weeklies have Nino 3.4 at an average of 27.4C. Against 1951-2010, this is +0.9C or so for that period. The zones West of Nino 1.2 have cooled relatively fast to Nino 3.4 over the past six weeks, with Nino 4 in particular cooling from near record levels. You can see relative to 2014-15 in Dec-Jan, the event is much more of a basin-wide event than 2014-15 was. 2002-03 and 2009-2010 were stronger and far more centered to the West by this time. 2006-07 was stronger at this week, but collapsed very quickly after, which doesn't seem likely. Anyway, new Jamstec should be out soon, and eventually NOAA/CPC will update the monthly Nino 3.4 data. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 03DEC2014 22.3 0.0 25.8 0.7 27.4 0.8 29.4 0.9 10DEC2014 22.8 0.2 26.0 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.4 0.9 17DEC2014 22.9 0.1 26.0 0.8 27.4 0.8 29.4 1.0 24DEC2014 23.1-0.2 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.3 0.9 31DEC2014 23.6 0.0 25.9 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.2 0.8 07JAN2015 23.7-0.2 25.9 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.1 0.7 14JAN2015 24.0-0.4 25.9 0.3 27.1 0.5 29.1 0.9 09DEC2009 22.7 0.2 26.6 1.5 28.2 1.7 29.6 1.1 16DEC2009 22.6-0.2 26.7 1.5 28.3 1.8 29.7 1.2 23DEC2009 23.7 0.5 26.8 1.5 28.4 1.9 29.7 1.3 30DEC2009 24.3 0.7 26.7 1.4 28.3 1.7 29.6 1.2 06JAN2010 24.3 0.4 26.7 1.2 28.3 1.7 29.7 1.3 06DEC2006 22.9 0.5 26.1 1.1 27.9 1.3 29.6 1.1 13DEC2006 22.9 0.2 26.3 1.2 27.8 1.2 29.5 1.0 20DEC2006 23.7 0.6 26.5 1.3 27.7 1.2 29.4 1.0 27DEC2006 24.0 0.6 26.6 1.3 27.7 1.1 29.4 1.0 03JAN2007 24.3 0.5 26.4 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.2 0.8 10JAN2007 24.9 0.7 26.7 1.1 27.5 0.9 29.1 0.8

I'm expecting a fairly big system to come through the West sometime around 1/23. The big SOI drops have all showed up as storms at a lead of 10 days. The problem is they are all weak and/or moisture starved so far. This is the "SOI calendar". Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 13 Jan 2019 1009.64 1006.95 -9.04 2.30 2.80 12 Jan 2019 1011.02 1007.65 -5.84 3.32 3.14 11 Jan 2019 1012.30 1007.20 2.31 4.19 3.51 10 Jan 2019 1011.56 1008.50 -7.30 4.56 3.75 9 Jan 2019 1011.75 1007.65 -2.40 4.94 3.94 8 Jan 2019 1012.44 1007.80 0.15 5.05 3.98 7 Jan 2019 1012.09 1008.40 -4.33 4.93 3.97 6 Jan 2019 1010.17 1007.40 -8.66 5.15 3.97 5 Jan 2019 1008.86 1008.20 -18.60 5.64 3.97 4 Jan 2019 1009.55 1009.25 -20.30 6.46 4.11 3 Jan 2019 1009.90 1008.05 -13.00 7.42 4.31 2 Jan 2019 1009.71 1007.10 -9.42 7.94 4.48 1 Jan 2019 1009.66 1006.60 -7.30 8.53 4.66 31 Dec 2018 1010.49 1006.85 -0.42 9.23 4.67 30 Dec 2018 1010.45 1005.45 6.64 9.46 4.50 29 Dec 2018 1011.15 1004.35 15.98 9.44 4.16 28 Dec 2018 1010.84 1003.60 18.27 9.33 3.79 27 Dec 2018 1008.54 1004.50 1.66 9.23 3.48 26 Dec 2018 1008.83 1005.75 -3.32 9.37 3.39 25 Dec 2018 1009.69 1005.60 1.92 9.48 3.37 24 Dec 2018 1010.56 1005.75 5.66 9.41 3.34 23 Dec 2018 1011.65 1005.45 12.87 9.35 3.16 22 Dec 2018 1011.39 1005.10 13.34 9.15 2.81 21 Dec 2018 1011.94 1005.35 14.89 8.83 2.36 20 Dec 2018 1012.71 1007.00 10.33 8.53 1.91 19 Dec 2018 1013.25 1008.05 7.68 8.40 1.63 18 Dec 2018 1014.64 1006.70 21.90 7.89 1.49

These are the top SOI matches for July 2018 to January 2019, assuming January finishes around -8, like it is for 1/1-1/13. 1932, 1957, 1969 all had major hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico. Good to see things from those years showing up given what I think March may do. SOI Monthly July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Match 2018 1.8 -6.7 -8.5 2.6 0.6 9.2 -8.0 0.00 2003 3.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.9 -2.4 9.0 -12.8 27.30 1948 0.8 -4.0 -7.1 6.6 4.2 -6.8 -7.9 28.80 1954 3.3 9.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 11.5 -5.5 35.30 1932 1.1 4.9 -8.3 -4.1 -4.6 1.8 -11.8 35.60 1969 -6.4 -4.0 -10.0 -11.6 -0.2 2.3 -10.8 37.10 1957 1.4 -8.2 -9.4 -0.3 -11.0 -4.3 -17.5 40.30

New Euro run for Nino 3.4 has El Nino most likely to continue through May. Weak conditions are possible as late as June or July though if this run is right. Anything resembling the current run would make the strong El Ninos analogs for Spring, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2015 were all dead by May. 1982, 1986, 1997, 2014, the strongest and two-year events, not so much.

The CPC ONI stuff is up, but hasn't been updated for December yet. Our friends at BOM, against 1961-1990, had Nino 3.4 at +0.8C, which is about 27.2C as there are a lot of potent La Ninas in that period (1988, etc). They probably are using a different data set than NOAA/CPC anyway. The December look is fairly east-based on their map. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Sea-surface

Here is a subsurface comparison to 2006-07, 2014-15 and 2015-16 at this time. The rapid collapse in 2007 and 2016 was fairly evident by now. Lots more red...but also blue. Can't get a good animation for 2009-10 for the same time period, but the collapse began in March 2010 that year.

Given the subsurface similarities to Dec 1997 (+1.1 is actually warmer for this year than 1997 for 100-180W) I don't think its too surprising we have somewhat similar weather so far. At a seasonal level the long-term phases of the oscillations matter, but at the sub-seasonal stuff, the MJO beats everything, so 1997-98 with similar MJO progression hasn't been bad as an analog since November. Jan 1998 is almost the same magnitude MJO in phase 8 on 1/8 as today is according to the BOM site MJO archives. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ I'm looking very hard at the El Nino years following a major hit on the Gulf Coast for March. For whatever reason you tend to get extreme Marches after that happens. You can see it last year after Harvey as an example. The five El Nino Springs after a Gulf Coast hurricane hit include 1941-42, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1969-70, 2004-05. A lot of crazy cold in unusual patterns in those years. Look at March 1958 as an example, which hasn't been super dissimilar to weather lately. I sincerely doubt the Plains will have more than 2-3 months of extreme warmth in a row like they seem to be. Some kind of correction will come. I'd go less extreme than this, but these type of years seem clustered after the major hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico, especially in an El Nino. 1966, after Betsy is kind of the warm March counter example because severe cold came earlier than in the other years. I don't have a Spring Outlook yet, but I do think the Plains are going to pay for their warmth, that seems almost inevitable, it's just where it spreads.

Gradual thinning of the warmth at depth overall since October? The SOI has a shot at a huge month over month drop from December, which does, sometimes, tie into big -NAO periods in the US. Last one being March 2018 when the SOI dropped by close to 20 points from Feb to Mar. Years with 20 point drops in winter include favorites like 1976. The SOI is current below -10 in January but that's already up a lot from earlier in the month. December was over +9.

For future reference, I will never go after anyone unless I'm directly provoked. Call it the Bugs Bunny rule. Anyway, weeklies. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05DEC2018 23.1 0.8 26.2 1.1 27.6 1.0 29.7 1.2 12DEC2018 23.4 0.8 26.1 1.0 27.7 1.1 29.7 1.2 19DEC2018 23.7 0.7 26.2 1.0 27.6 1.0 29.5 1.0 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 People seem to dislike it, but with the MJO behaving similarly to 1997 since December, there are at least some similarities for the first 40% of the winter. 1991-92 has been close too. Cold Maine, warm East. Hot Plains. Main problem with 1997 to date has been the SE. I put the others here - https://imgur.com/a/uhOjwhZ

The past eight days (12/26-1/2), once 1/2 is included have had the second coldest mean high in Albuquerque since the 1931-32 winter - 34.0F (11F below 1932-2018 average)