raindancewx

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 As Chuck's method implied, the subsurface was showing warmth below Nino 3/3.4. That warmth has been slowly returning to the surface, so the anomalies are getting more positive, even accounting for the warming in Nino 3/3.4 that happens in February. The weekly ENSO update for Summer isn't out because it is a federal holiday. @Great Snow 1717 I have some ideas for June but not beyond that. We tend to have (for us) unusual cold/wetness in June in the SW somewhat more frequently after a dry Nov-Jan. A strong SW US Monsoon is weakly correlated to the +PDO, low Nov-Apr precipitation prior to Summer, and low solar activity. The PDO and Nov-Apr precip are pretty neutral so I don't see a particularly wet or dry Summer here, but the sun is still favorable.

Just your regular, run of the mill...-36 daily SOI? Lowest daily value since February 2017. SOI is down to -12 for February now. Still looks pretty negative for the next few days at least. I think it maybe gets as low as -15 by 2/20 or 2/22 and then rises back to -12, +/-4 by the end of the month. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 18 Feb 2019 1006.97 1009.70 -35.88 -6.21 0.65 17 Feb 2019 1009.02 1010.50 -29.88 -4.72 1.12 16 Feb 2019 1010.66 1011.10 -24.88 -3.35 1.37 15 Feb 2019 1012.06 1010.15 -13.59 -2.47 1.44 14 Feb 2019 1010.95 1010.30 -19.64 -2.26 1.32 13 Feb 2019 1010.29 1010.80 -25.22 -1.77 1.38 12 Feb 2019 1010.38 1010.50 -23.34 -1.07 1.64 11 Feb 2019 1011.48 1010.70 -19.02 -0.59 1.89 10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13 9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22 8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58 6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73 5 Feb 2019 1011.44 1006.60 0.48 0.36 2.70 4 Feb 2019 1010.90 1006.35 -0.91 0.06 2.68 3 Feb 2019 1010.19 1005.40 0.24 -0.53 2.69 2 Feb 2019 1010.59 1006.65 -3.84 -1.22 2.66 1 Feb 2019 1011.89 1005.70 6.96 -1.52 2.65

The SOI is down to near -11 in February and looks pretty negative for the next five days at least. It's actually very difficult to get an SOI blend historically that went +9, -2, -10 for Dec, Jan, Feb respectively. Simplest close blend I found was 1961-62, 1969-70 (x3), 2011-12. These SOI blends tend to work for temps. If February ends up at -20 or +5 somehow, will of course need to change it. https://beta.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ SOI Dec Jan Feb 1961 12.5 16.5 -5.2 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 1969 2.3 -10.8 -12.1 2011 22.2 9.6 0.8 Mean 8.3 -1.3 -8.1 2018 9.1 -2.1 -10.0

When I tried to re-create expected solar/ONI/ONI Prior conditions and match Fall highs (Oct/Nov) in Albuquerque, this was the only blend that worked. It's held up remarkably well since I started looking at it in early November. The math says solar, ONI, ONIp account for 70% of the variability in highs here in El Ninos. Will be interesting to see when/if this breaks going forward.

The El Nino subsurface looks pretty healthy to me right now. Also, the SOI (2/1-2/16) is down to -9.5 or so in February now. That looks to continue for at least a few more days on the ECMWF. Remember, Nino 3.4 is 120W-170W. @andyhb My stuff only works if I get the inputs into my regressions right, and it tends to work best in Winter & Summer, so this is all fairly low confidence, but a big +NAO in December favors a warm Northwest in May, at fairly high correlations in some locations. The January NAO+ also favors cold in the center of the US, which is what I went with in my forecast. I kind of have a ring of warmth (West Coast, South, East) wrapped around a cold core in the Plains. I think generally the further you are away from Nebraska, the warmer it will be in May for location specific anomalies. The NAO correlation map is also consistent with my expectations for New Mexico - we're likely to have a cold high relative to 1931-32 to 2017-18 averages in Albuquerque for every month from at least October to February (and I think we'll get March & April too) but when we have a prolonged period of cold highs here it tends to break in late May with a big heat wave that wipes out the cold and leaves May about average. May tends to be very dry/hot in the Southwest if Nov-Jan is dry...and it was quite dry in AZ, with less dryness in NM/CA. I think its a pretty warm Spring in the East generally. Last year, we had the driest ever Nov-Jan (0.03") in Albuquerque and May was incredibly hot. Recent very cold Mays in NM, like 2007 and 2015 were actually very wet in Nov-Jan 2006-07 and 2014-15. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii

There was very/record wet air with the raging subtropical jet yesterday. Reminded me a bit of Dec 2014 when it rained on the top of Sandia Peak (10,000+ feet), probably a 99th percentile warm event. Fortunately, the next few storms look much colder. My wet winter call for the SW hasn't really verified in New Mexico yet - Albuquerque is still around 0.20" below an average winter precipitation total, so need these coming storms to verify my forecast.

New Jamstec is out. It has a bit of a Nino 3.4 rebound before the El Nino falls apart in Summer. US Trended much warmer for Spring. The Jamstec also shows that this El Nino has become less and less of a Modoki event over time.

I mentioned above that I like 1974-75 as an analog for Spring, even though it is a La Nina. Well...it's pretty close for February so far. It had the big +SOI in December and a slightly -SOI in January. It was a La Nina, but it was much warmer in Nino 3.4 in 1974-75 than in 1973-74, just like this year is much warmer than Nino 3.4. I went back 100 years, and 1974-75 is the closest precipitation match objectively to 2018-19 in Albuquerque for July-January. Big +NAO in October 1974 was like October 2018 too.

NOAA says this is now an official El Nino. This is the same time frame as when the 2014-15 El Nino was declared - they wait until the conditions persist/couple. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-announces-arrival-of-el-nino

Red River, NM (8600 ft ASL) has had 97 inches of snow so far, at least at the resort base. They have good snow records for 1906-2014, and based on my analogs, I had them getting 160 inches of snow from September to June. By 3/1, I had them at 102 inches, so 97 through 2/13 is somewhat ahead of my pace so far. Will be interesting to see if that continues or not. It doesn't really look like it will warm up too much in the near future.

Here are some highs for 12/1-2/11 nationally, and what my analogs had in () for the same period. The years I used were 1953-54, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95 (x2), 2006-07 Atlanta - 56.5F (53.5F) Albuquerque - 47.7F (48.4F) Boston - 41.6F (39.6F) Bismarck - 24.3F (25.9F) Jacksonville - 68.0F (64.9F) Philadelphia - 44.0F (42.6F) Seattle - 48.3F (47.7F) St. Louis - 43.2F (41.1F) Spatially, with what February seems to be doing, this winter may end up resembling something like a diet 1972-73, with a warmer South. We'll have to see. It certainly isn't as cold as 1972-73 in the West, but if you added 3F everywhere, it's not terrible. Highs to date are generally warm east of the Mississippi winter to date, and cold in the West. The SOI has been really cranking lately, by the way. On the ECMWF it looks very negative to slightly negative for each of the next ten days. A reading under -8 for February (El Nino territory again) looks fairly likely. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 12 Feb 2019 1010.38 1010.50 -23.34 -1.07 1.64 11 Feb 2019 1011.48 1010.70 -19.02 -0.59 1.89 10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13 9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22 8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58 6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73 5 Feb 2019 1011.44 1006.60 0.48 0.36 2.70 4 Feb 2019 1010.90 1006.35 -0.91 0.06 2.68 3 Feb 2019 1010.19 1005.40 0.24 -0.53 2.69 2 Feb 2019 1010.59 1006.65 -3.84 -1.22 2.66 1 Feb 2019 1011.89 1005.70 6.96 -1.52 2.65

The weeklies show a recovery too. Sorry for the delay, at a work party. Wings and pizza. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8

The winters after low solar El Ninos since 1930 are pretty interesting - 1931, 1954, 1964, 1966, 1977, 1987, 1995, 2007, 2010. Just based on that list I'd say lower than normal chance of an El Nino, but who knows? You could throw in 2016, 2005 and 1998 as borderline cases. I kind of lean toward something like 1992, where El Nino conditions persist fairly long after winter, but the following winter is Neutral. The look right now (and really, this is too detailed, ONI/SST stuff is better for months not days) is a bit like early 2005 in an SST sense. February 2005 had like a -30 SOI, so March 2005 won't show up in 2019 with the same severity. Given a battle between the +SOI in December and -SOI in February, I think the +SOI wins in the East and it is warm, but in the West the -SOI wins. We'll see though. If you look at March/April 2005, the Nino 3.4 SSTs look more like a Nino again than the map below, which is what I expect going by the subsurface.

I went with a blend of 1941-42, 1957-58, 1969-70, 1974-75, 1998-99, 2004-05, 2009-10, 2014-15 for Spring 2019 in my outlook linked below. https://t.co/sYaPDu7ZLU The SOI still looks pretty negative for a while, and it has been negative for days. The local NWS is getting excited about the raging Pacific jet visiting the SW and all the snow we may/should get. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Feb 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -8.26 -0.15 2.13 9 Feb 2019 1011.34 1007.10 -2.40 0.20 2.22 8 Feb 2019 1010.44 1007.85 -10.33 0.04 2.37 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58 6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73 5 Feb 2019 1011.44 1006.60 0.48 0.36 2.70 4 Feb 2019 1010.90 1006.35 -0.91 0.06 2.68 3 Feb 2019 1010.19 1005.40 0.24 -0.53 2.69 2 Feb 2019 1010.59 1006.65 -3.84 -1.22 2.66 1 Feb 2019 1011.89 1005.70 6.96 -1.52 2.65 The Euro has this for the next five days, and then the following five days. The MJO has been stuck in 6/7 for a while. It is forecast to get to the phase 1/2 transition roughly on 3/1. That transition is fairly similar to Feb-Mar 1986, 1999 and 2005 among recent years.

https://www.scribd.com/document/399335727/Spring-2019-Outlook This is what I have for Spring 2019. We'll see how I do.

The ECMWF has trended to El Nino strengthening at the surface in March and April. Every member of the plume has El Nino conditions in March, and all but one have it continuing in April too.

NOAA had the PDO value dropping off again in January, consistent with US temps in February so far. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ -0.29 in January 2019. Down from December.

The SOI looks like it will see an extended negative period starting in a few days if the ECMWF is right. Maybe a week or more. The most recent reading was a good sign. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Feb 2019 1010.46 1007.30 -7.59 0.30 2.58 6 Feb 2019 1011.21 1006.15 1.54 0.56 2.73 5 Feb 2019 1011.44 1006.60 0.48 0.36 2.70 4 Feb 2019 1010.90 1006.35 -0.91 0.06 2.68 3 Feb 2019 1010.19 1005.40 0.24 -0.53 2.69 2 Feb 2019 1010.59 1006.65 -3.84 -1.22 2.66 1 Feb 2019 1011.89 1005.70 6.96 -1.52 2.65

If the February heat content for 100W-180W comes in around +0.9 - and the graphic implies it might - since a warm subsurface wave seems to be moving East - you get some real interesting Marches. This blend actually looks a lot like the blend I am using in my Spring Forecast nationally (releasing it around 2/10), although I expect the cold to be more severe in the middle of the US, with warmer conditions on both coasts, especially the East, given the SOI (Dec), NAO (Oct), prior ENSO event (DJF 2017-18), and low solar all favoring Eastern warmth. Year Dec Jan Feb 1982 1.45 0.05 -0.81 1989 0.64 0.78 1.08 1989 0.64 0.78 1.08 1989 0.64 0.78 1.08 2004 0.79 0.52 0.59 2009 1.36 1.14 1.24 2009 1.36 1.14 1.24 2009 1.36 1.14 1.24 2009 1.36 1.14 1.24 Blend 1.07 0.83 0.89 2018 1.06 0.77 0.90

ONI for January (27.25C) and Nov-Jan was +0.8C according to CPC. Weeklies have Nino 1.2 warmer than Nino 3.4 again. Nino 4 is still warm too, and subsurface heat is increasing since early January in the 100-180W zone. I'd expect some of the heat in Nino 4 and Nino 1.2 to fill into Nino 3.4 / Nino 3 again later in February or March. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 26DEC2018 24.1 0.8 26.0 0.7 27.3 0.7 29.2 0.8 02JAN2019 23.9 0.2 26.1 0.6 27.3 0.7 29.1 0.8 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 Nino 1.2 was 23.95C for NDJ - pretty warm.

The Canadian has flipped to a cold / wet West look, like the CFS and CPC outlooks. It had the East warm in Jan and the West cold - generally right on its 12/31 outlook.

PDO Index values for 2018 - in my email from Nate Mantua the other day January 0.70 February 0.37 March -0.05 April 0.11 May 0.11 June -0.04 July 0.11 August 0.18 September 0.09 October 0.26 November -0.05 December 0.52

Objective, closest SOI matches for NDJ are an interesting bunch for February - SOI Monthly Nov Dec Jan Closeness 2018 0.6 9.2 -2.1 0.0 1954 2.3 11.5 -5.5 7.4 1996 -0.1 7.3 3.5 8.2 1993 0.4 0.7 -2.1 8.7 1945 -3.4 5.4 -3.1 8.8 1956 2.3 8.5 4.5 9.0 1960 6.8 5.9 -3.1 10.5 CFS may not be completely off its rocker - Just about all the top SOI matches for the past three months have cold in the West or Plains in February, although it occasionally bleeds East in a weaker fashion in a small number of the top years, like Feb 1994.

Back to 1931 in Albuquerque, every year October is wetter than September has been followed by measurable March precipitation. Not the case at all when September is wetter than October. There is a statistically significant difference disfavoring low precipitation Albuquerque during March when October is wetter than September, relative to years when September is wetter than October.

Looks to me like the 100-180W subsurface, top 300m, at the Equator will be around +0.7C in February. Blending that with the +1.35 in Nov and +1.06 in Dec, it is almost impossible not to get a cold East look in some fashion, but there are several combinations, so the center of the cold and the severity of it is in question.