raindancewx

The new Canadian run has a very warm US in April like the CFS does. It continues the current El Nino into next winter, which is a warmer forecast than before. Eastern US trended much drier for April too. The CPC cool zone is right where Nino 3.4 March SSTs are strongest as a cool signal for April temps. Nino 3.4 was likely around 28.2C in March, pretty warm.

SOI finished March at -6.5, listed some SOI analogs back on 3/24 CFS currently has a very warm April nationally with some weakness in the heat in the West. Canadian should be out later today with another idea for April and a new read on the El Nino.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Subsurface heat transition for Jan, Feb, Mar is most similar to early 1990. Below surface heat of +1.5 as I've estimated for March would be third warmest in March since 1979. Anything above +1.6 is the warmest March since 1979 but going by the image, doesn't look like we hit that. Year Jan Feb Mar Distance 2019 0.76 1.10 1.50 0.00 1990 0.78 1.08 1.14 0.40 1997 0.56 1.00 1.17 0.63 2015 0.15 0.83 1.52 0.90 2005 0.52 0.59 1.27 0.98 2010 1.14 1.24 0.97 1.05 2002 0.95 0.78 0.55 1.46

Next big wave of heat is arriving to the eastern Nino zones from below now. The SOI is around -6.5 for March. Looks like some positive and negative days are coming by 3/31 so it won't change too much. Similar JFM periods, tentatively - July-June Jan Feb Mar Top Match 2002 -2.0 -9.3 -6.6 5.6 1989 -1.9 -18.4 -8.2 5.8 1972 -3.6 -15.0 -0.3 8.0 1952 1.6 -7.1 -6.0 11.6 1947 -3.6 -3.7 -4.6 14.2 1977 -3.6 -26.9 -6.0 14.2 2009 -8.3 -18.2 -10.8 14.2 Something like this blend works pretty well for where March is now. July-Jun Jan Feb Mar 1989 -1.9 -18.4 -8.2 1972 -3.6 -15.0 -0.3 2009 -8.3 -18.2 -10.8 1952 1.6 -7.1 -6.0 Blend -3.1 -14.7 -6.3 2018 -2.2 -14.6 -6.5 Also, it is close to what the CFS shows for April.

On the last ENSO weekly update, it looked like the subsurface heat for 100-180W was leveling off at around +1.6. Will be interesting to see what happens next. Reading of +1 or -1 v. the long-term Nino 3.4 averages are much more impressive in Spring than in Winter historically.

I'm continually amazed at how strong this blend has been for Albuquerque since I started using it in October. The El Nino ended up only a 27.4C event, but for highs it has nonetheless remained a strong blend in all months since October.

Nate Mantua (JISAO) sent out the PDO values earlier this week. Nov 2018: -0.05 Dec 2018: +0.52 Jan 2019: +0.66 Feb 2019: +0.46 Nov-Feb mean: +0.40 I mentioned in the other thread that October Nino 1.2 readings blended with the PDO mean from Mar-Aug is a good indicator, and that blend implied a +0.4 PDO for Nov-Apr. Correlations to SE US cold and the PDO are actually stronger than correlations to SE cold and Nino 3.4 temps / SOI conditions. So it's been interesting seeing the PDO come in near 0 month after month. You can compare that to Nov-Apr 2014-15 when the PDO was near +2 despite similar SSTs in Nino 3.4 in winter.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 Subsurface heat is leveling off. Current values are like 2009-10 but more basin wide than 3/2010. 03MAR2010 26.3-0.1 27.5 0.7 28.1 1.1 29.2 1.0 10MAR2010 26.0-0.4 27.5 0.5 28.3 1.2 29.3 1.1 17MAR2010 26.2-0.3 27.8 0.7 28.4 1.1 29.2 1.1 24MAR2010 26.3 0.0 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.2 0.9

Given that the PDO is still neutral/negative it will be interesting to see what happens if another El Nino develops next winter, of if this one lasts for another year. My hunch is the current El Nino breaks up briefly later in the Summer, and then after that the real pattern for next winter will develop.

The JAMSTEC update is out. Went to a very warm Spring nationally. Still has an El Nino through Spring. It shows a cold neutral setup in Nino 3.4 in Fall.

Pretty substantial snowpack recovery in NM the past few days.

Here is a list of what happened in years following a 27.4C El Nino in Dec-Feb (Nino 3.4), give or take +0.4C. For years prior to 1950, I correlate the 1950-2019 data when both are available and then "convert" the pre-1950 to what it would look like on the 1950- data. El N ONI ONI+ 1939 27.44 27.96 1941 27.38 25.31 1953 27.00 25.56 1963 27.36 25.69 1965 27.73 26.01 1968 27.54 26.92 1976 27.18 27.15 1977 27.15 26.49 1979 27.05 26.31 1986 27.76 27.34 1987 27.34 24.83 1990 27.02 28.40 1994 27.64 25.74 2002 27.50 26.94 2004 27.22 25.80 2006 27.29 24.98 2014 27.18 29.13 2018 27.38 There is something of a warm signal in the West for winters after El Ninos, with a bit of a cold signal in the Central Plains, South and NE. El Ninos after similar Nino 3.4 composites to this year (1940-41, 1969-70, 1977-78, 1987-88, 1991-92, 2015-16. I'll add in 2003-04 too, close enough to an El Nino for this). La Nina after similar strength El Ninos (with 1966-67, close enough). Worth noting, unlike literally all the El Ninos which are high solar, these La Ninas are almost all low solar. You'll notice the composites are dry in both cases for the interior South, which is consistent with winters following El Ninos being dry in that zone (blue = negative correlation to heavy precip following high Nino 3.4 readings). California does pretty well either way.

Albuquerque is up to 0.50" as of 8 pm with this storm. Wettest March since 2007. My Spring Forecast had 0.75" for March, so that looks...not bad. At least for now. There were two big SOI crashes 3/8-3/10, and 3/9-3/11 that support some kind of big storm around 3/21 or 3/22 in the SW. We'll see I ended up going with these amounts for Mon/Tue/Weds in the city: Monday: 0.05"-0.40" - 0.21" actual Tuesday: 0.30"-0.70" - 0.29" actual through 8 pm. (Maybe a bit as snow very late) Wednesday: 0.05-0.40" - ?? (Maybe some as snow)

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 20FEB2019 26.4 0.2 27.0 0.5 27.5 0.7 29.1 1.0 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 The MJO is pretty similar to October right now, which is when this event ramped up, before weakening, so some weakening after March wouldn't be too surprising. Heat content is all the way back to October levels though -

I'll be looking for a big storm in about ten days given the recent SOI drop from 3/8 to 3/10. The models were hinting at the MJO winding back to phase 2/3 around that time earlier in the week, but it doesn't look too likely now. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Mar 2019 1010.20 1008.60 -12.02 -14.73 -3.25 9 Mar 2019 1011.85 1009.10 -6.51 -14.67 -3.11 8 Mar 2019 1013.00 1009.05 -0.77 -14.71 -3.07 7 Mar 2019 1011.27 1008.80 -7.85 -14.63 -3.04 6 Mar 2019 1010.75 1008.45 -8.66 -14.35 -2.88 5 Mar 2019 1011.65 1008.45 -4.36 -14.10 -2.72 4 Mar 2019 1011.81 1008.15 -2.15 -13.94 -2.58 3 Mar 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -5.22 -14.00 -2.53 2 Mar 2019 1012.17 1008.75 -3.30 -13.59 -2.38 1 Mar 2019 1014.11 1009.00 4.79 -13.48 -2.19 A big -SOI in March is a fairly strong cold signal for Texas. Warm for Washington state. Fairly strong dry signal for the Western Dakotas, and a wet signal for the mountains of Virginia. Last March the SOI was very positive, right now it is -4.6, and it looks volatile but primarily negative for the next week at least. With these maps, the lightest greens and lightest blues tend to get overwhelmed by other factors, but the darker shades usually "win" so to speak. May is actually very strongly correlated to March Nino 3.4 temps in the NW, its a very strong signal for warmth in Washington and in the NW generally. Less strong as a cold signal in May for other areas.

Euro has the El Nino remaining pretty strong into Summer and Fall now. Hardly any members go below El Nino territory. Most members are above +0.8C from now through Fall, each month.

I'd say this El Nino did weaken in Dec/Jan depending on the indicator you use. The +9.1 SOI never should of happened in an El Nino December. The weeklies also dropped below +0.5 for a bit before recovering. The double El Ninos do seem to have at least a brief weakening like you said, but it was a bit strange to see that happen in Dec/Jan this year. Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4 09JAN2019 24.6 0.5 26.1 0.6 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.6 16JAN2019 25.4 0.9 26.3 0.6 27.1 0.5 29.0 0.7 23JAN2019 25.1 0.2 26.2 0.4 27.0 0.4 28.9 0.7 30JAN2019 26.3 1.0 26.3 0.3 27.0 0.3 29.0 0.8 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 In 2015, you had the El Nino essentially die for a couple weeks in February in Nino 3. 2015 1 27.06 26.45 0.61 2015 2 27.18 26.66 0.52 2015 3 27.77 27.21 0.56 2015 4 28.53 27.73 0.79 Week Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4 07JAN2015 23.7-0.2 25.9 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.1 0.7 14JAN2015 24.0-0.4 25.9 0.3 27.1 0.5 29.1 0.9 21JAN2015 24.3-0.4 26.1 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.2 1.0 28JAN2015 24.8-0.3 26.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.1 0.9 04FEB2015 25.0-0.5 26.2 0.1 27.2 0.5 29.1 0.9 11FEB2015 25.1-0.8 26.6 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.0 0.9 18FEB2015 26.1-0.1 26.7 0.3 27.3 0.5 29.0 1.0 25FEB2015 26.1-0.1 26.8 0.1 27.5 0.6 29.3 1.2 04MAR2015 25.8-0.5 26.9 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 1987 weakened too, briefly. 1986 12 27.71 26.47 1.24 1987 1 27.68 26.46 1.22 1987 2 27.89 26.66 1.23 1987 3 28.27 27.14 1.13 1987 4 28.40 27.58 0.82 1987 5 28.56 27.68 0.88 1987 6 28.64 27.43 1.21 1976-77 definitely died for a bit - 1976 12 27.08 26.43 0.66 1977 1 27.32 26.39 0.93 1977 2 27.13 26.59 0.55 1977 3 27.48 27.04 0.44 1977 4 27.45 27.42 0.03 1977 5 27.72 27.51 0.22

Nino 3.4 in March is probably going to be one of the five or six warmest readings since 1950 in the raw data. Here is what that implies for Summer - warm FL/WA in June. Wet NW. Pretty strong warm signal in the South for July actually. Wet north. (Side Note: I find that July/Dec are essentially twins spatially for temp patterns in a lot of years) August is kind of dry in the NE after a warm March in Nino 3.4? No huge signals, but it is interesting seeing August is favored warm for basically the US outside TX & the NW. Warmest Nino 3.4 March is 28.90C - I don't think it gets that high, but the weeklies had the week of 2/24-3/2 at 28.0C in Nino 3.4 and there is warm water surfacing. A reading of 28.2C+ seems pretty likely for March. When I said in my winter forecast that this event might end behaving like the strong El Ninos in later in Winter/Spring last October this is kind of what I meant. These El Ninos are all ballpark now for March. Mar Nino 3.4 2016 28.90 1983 28.66 1992 28.66 1998 28.62 1958 28.27 1987 28.27 1966 28.21 2010 28.18 2019 ??

Still looks like the warm waters are heading East. The 2009-10 look that developed in late February at the surface (see the weeklies) should vanish again in a few weeks. I haven't gotten the PDO mailing list update from Nate Mantua for recent PDO numbers, but the NOAA PDO dropped again in February. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ 201810 -0.75 201811 -0.78 201812 -0.12 201901 -0.23 201902 -0.55

The Euro is still much higher than the other models for the Mon-Tue event, and some hints now it may begin Sunday Night or linger into mid-week. As a blend, I usually weight the NAM 3-km, Euro, GFS, at 2:1, 2:1, 1:1, once we're within 48 hours of an event. At this range, the Euro is still better than the NAM. So the current weighting would be something like 1.25" x2, 0.4" x2, 0.3" x1, for 0.75". But I think anything from 0.25" to 1.50" is possible for total precipitation in much of NM from Mon-Wed. The NWS radar beam is down, so I'm sure they are going to some weird things to try to forecast this event.

The big time storm / severe outbreak that is depicted on the models is pretty consistent with the SOI crash on 3/1 to 3/3 - storms tend to show up in the SW 10 days after a drop of that magnitude. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Mar 2019 1011.27 1008.80 -7.85 -14.63 -3.04 6 Mar 2019 1010.75 1008.45 -8.66 -14.35 -2.88 5 Mar 2019 1011.65 1008.45 -4.36 -14.10 -2.72 4 Mar 2019 1011.81 1008.15 -2.15 -13.94 -2.58 3 Mar 2019 1012.02 1009.00 -5.22 -14.00 -2.53 2 Mar 2019 1012.17 1008.75 -3.30 -13.59 -2.38 1 Mar 2019 1014.11 1009.00 4.79 -13.48 -2.19

Billings, Montana had its coldest February since 1936. Here is an interesting comparison, just for fun - Feb Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3 Nino 12 2019 28.92 27.43 26.95 26.66 1936 28.31 27.25 26.72 26.52 Yup...almost identical. February 2019 was essentially 1936 +0.15C in all zones but Nino 4. So Billings had its warmer version of February 1936.

That's a tornado pattern. Also, the storm depicted on 3/11-3/12 is the most precipitation I've ever seen a model show for March in New Mexico. The Euro has had over an inch of precipitation for several runs now, and the start of the event would be Monday morning. I'm sure it would find a way to snow even toward El Paso if the storm verified as depicted.

How about this for your crazy February 2019 analog re-creation? To be fair, Montana was -20 to -25 v. 1951-2010 averages, so the severity isn't right, but spatially it isn't bad. I had the wrong top matches for February 2019 in the Nino zones - it is actually 1995, 2003, 1993, 1973, 2010, 1966, in that order for closeness. Best blend for re-creating February 2018 in the Nino zones I could get was: 1958 (x3), 2007 (x2), 2010 (x1), 2015 (x2), 2016 (x1), 2017 (x4). In the Southwest, 1958, 1973, 2003, 2007 are all pretty wet in March. 1958 and 1973 are actually top five for wetness in the last 100 years. Feb 4 3.4 3 1.2 Weight 1958 29.12 28.24 27.44 26.36 3 2007 28.66 26.88 26.49 26.21 2 2010 29.08 28.01 27.28 26.22 1 2015 29.07 27.17 26.46 25.57 2 2016 29.41 29.01 28.38 27.40 1 2017 28.11 26.67 26.83 27.46 4 Blend 28.75 27.42 27.02 26.62 2019 28.92 27.43 26.95 26.66 Feb 4 3.4 3 1.2 1966 28.64 27.55 26.90 25.49 1973 28.59 27.95 27.20 26.26 1993 28.30 27.16 26.80 26.40 1995 28.91 27.49 26.85 26.20 2003 28.88 27.39 26.84 25.98 2010 29.08 28.01 27.28 26.22 2019 28.92 27.43 26.95 26.66

When I did objective matches to Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4 for February, I think the top years came out as February 1995, 2003, 1973, 2007, 1987, 1966. It's interesting, a blend of Feb 1987 and Feb 1988 is actually dead on for Feb 2019 in Nino 3.4, and Nino 3, but too cold in the other zones. I'd have to double check my records but I don't know of any double El Ninos where both El Ninos are during low solar activity if we are to move into another El Nino next winter. If you consider 1952-53 an El Nino (I do not), the 1952-53 to 1953-54 double El Nino is probably the only transition where both El Ninos were low solar since 1931. 1977-78 and 1987-88 both had low solar initially, but rapidly transitioned to high solar activity in the July-Jun years. That may be possible but it doesn't look to me like a rapid uptick is coming with the last minimum being centered around February 2009. July to June 1987-88 had 29-140 sunspots per month, 65 for the 12-month average, and July to June 1977-78 had 30-135 sunspots per month, 84 for the 12-month average. 1913-14 and 1914-15, and 1899-00, 1900-01 were both low solar El Ninos if you believe the extended data, so might have to look at the 1914-15 and 1900-01. I know supposedly Albuquerque had 40 inches of snow in 1914-15, with 27.5" falling in January 1915 with temperatures below 0 at a site a couple miles - and lower elevation - than the airport. Would love to see the setup for that. For being 100+ years ago, those winters are actually not that cold nationally.