raindancewx

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 17APR2019 25.5 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.8 29.3 0.8 Steady. Subsurface heat for 100-180W is back down to +0.7 after hitting +1.5 around 3/1 (page 11 on the link). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

MJO has re-awakened for a jaunt through phases 2-3, for a week to ten days if the European is right. Cold signal for lots of the US in April. SOI is still behaving like an El Nino for the most part. Models are trending to a storm over the SW around Monday/Tuesday in light of the big crash from 4/9 to 4/11 (35 points) or the 4/11 to 4/13 crash. You tend to get a low in the SW ten days after a big crash. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 20 Apr 2019 1010.44 1010.50 -17.67 -3.02 -7.02 19 Apr 2019 1011.70 1011.75 -17.59 -2.63 -6.77 18 Apr 2019 1013.01 1011.75 -8.15 -2.16 -6.47 17 Apr 2019 1012.26 1011.40 -11.03 -1.94 -6.26 16 Apr 2019 1012.95 1011.55 -7.14 -1.86 -6.12 15 Apr 2019 1013.08 1011.25 -4.04 -1.93 -6.12 14 Apr 2019 1011.39 1011.10 -15.14 -2.11 -6.13 13 Apr 2019 1009.59 1011.10 -28.12 -1.89 -6.01 12 Apr 2019 1009.69 1010.60 -23.80 -1.53 -5.80 11 Apr 2019 1010.80 1010.80 -17.23 -1.24 -5.60 10 Apr 2019 1012.52 1010.15 -0.15 -1.13 -5.38 9 Apr 2019 1013.55 1008.80 17.01 -1.68 -5.46 8 Apr 2019 1013.87 1008.10 24.37 -2.65 -5.67 7 Apr 2019 1013.79 1009.80 11.53 -3.68 -5.94 6 Apr 2019 1014.01 1009.70 13.84 -4.09 -6.12 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84 3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25 2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50 1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 Still solidly in El Nino territory. That said, the warmth below the surface is thinning rapidly now and some cool water is showing up. I'm in the camp that this event stays above the +0.5C threshold at the surface longer than most El Ninos, into June or July, but not convinced it lasts after that. Could redevelop in Fall, but I think we're about due for an extended Neutral period, we'll see.

Ruidoso, Santa Fe and most high elevation zones have had good snows in the past week. Here is Ruidoso.

Nate Mantua sent out the March PDO value for 2019 the other day, and their new website. PDO Index values for 2019 January 0.66 February 0.46 March 0.37 The updated and full UW-JISAO version of the PDO index is now available online at: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Nate

European April run is pretty confident on El Nino continuing (above black line) into July, but doesn't have a good read on what will happen after - either rapid weakening or re-strengthening.

Big SOI drop recently. Drop is comparable to the one ahead of the Blizzard of 1993 Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Apr 2019 1012.52 1010.15 -0.15 -1.13 -5.38 9 Apr 2019 1013.55 1008.80 17.01 -1.68 -5.46 8 Apr 2019 1013.87 1008.10 24.37 -2.65 -5.67 7 Apr 2019 1013.79 1009.80 11.53 -3.68 -5.94 6 Apr 2019 1014.01 1009.70 13.84 -4.09 -6.12 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84 3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25 2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50 1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 20FEB2019 26.4 0.2 27.0 0.5 27.5 0.7 29.1 1.0 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 El Nino through at least FMA.

There is a new MEI data set out there now, for anyone interested since Klaus Wolter retired. SOI should see a big drop in the next few days if the Euro MSLP forecasts are right. The -NAO forecast over the next few days is a fairly strong cold signal for cold in New Mexico in June, and the West generally in May. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84 3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25 2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50 1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 El Nino is official. March was 28.13C, +0.93C using the CPC standard. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.14 27.21 0.93

The subsurface warmth below the surface may be weakening some with the warmth surfacing now. My hunch is by the official metrics we stay in El Nino territory into June or so, and then stay in Neutral. I don't have a good sense for next winter yet.

Albuquerque is at 97 lows of 32F or less since 10/1 - pretty high by recent standards and even by longer term historical standards.

Going into next year, it will be interesting to see what the sun does. On a y/y basis, monthly sunspots were up by 7 in March, after being up in November and January. There has not been a double El Nino with low solar activity each time since 1952-53/1953-54, or 1913-14/1914-15 depending on what criteria you use for an El Nino. My threshold for low solar activity is a July-Jun average of 50 sunspots or less, that seems to be the threshold when effects show up if you use a ROC predictive analysis for false positives/false negatives. Also, its been interesting looking at snow anomalies this year v. in a standard El Nino -

March in Nino 3.4 is likely +1.0C - about 28.2C (CPC uses 27.2C as average in Nino 3.4 in March) Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 Subsurface heat is declining again now, but +1.42 in March - third highest since 1979. The look on the weeklies now is the most "Modoki" look since Fall. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Warm Nino 3.4 March is a strong warm signal in the SE in July. These are the 28.0C-28.4C Nino 3.4 Marches since 1950: 2010 1966 1958 1987 Not an exact match, but it looks close to the correlation blend for temps. I'll post my Summer Outlook on here in mid-May once I get a sense of what April does.

March ended up with a high of 62.2F here, but that is the coldest March since 2010 in Albuquerque. Rains today (trying valiantly to go over to snow, but it is 35F) also make March 2019 the wettest March in the city since 2005. My Spring Forecast had 59.8F / 0.75" for Albuquerque in March, we'll end up at 62.2F / and at least 0.67".

The new Canadian run has a very warm US in April like the CFS does. It continues the current El Nino into next winter, which is a warmer forecast than before. Eastern US trended much drier for April too. The CPC cool zone is right where Nino 3.4 March SSTs are strongest as a cool signal for April temps. Nino 3.4 was likely around 28.2C in March, pretty warm.

SOI finished March at -6.5, listed some SOI analogs back on 3/24 CFS currently has a very warm April nationally with some weakness in the heat in the West. Canadian should be out later today with another idea for April and a new read on the El Nino.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Subsurface heat transition for Jan, Feb, Mar is most similar to early 1990. Below surface heat of +1.5 as I've estimated for March would be third warmest in March since 1979. Anything above +1.6 is the warmest March since 1979 but going by the image, doesn't look like we hit that. Year Jan Feb Mar Distance 2019 0.76 1.10 1.50 0.00 1990 0.78 1.08 1.14 0.40 1997 0.56 1.00 1.17 0.63 2015 0.15 0.83 1.52 0.90 2005 0.52 0.59 1.27 0.98 2010 1.14 1.24 0.97 1.05 2002 0.95 0.78 0.55 1.46

Next big wave of heat is arriving to the eastern Nino zones from below now. The SOI is around -6.5 for March. Looks like some positive and negative days are coming by 3/31 so it won't change too much. Similar JFM periods, tentatively - July-June Jan Feb Mar Top Match 2002 -2.0 -9.3 -6.6 5.6 1989 -1.9 -18.4 -8.2 5.8 1972 -3.6 -15.0 -0.3 8.0 1952 1.6 -7.1 -6.0 11.6 1947 -3.6 -3.7 -4.6 14.2 1977 -3.6 -26.9 -6.0 14.2 2009 -8.3 -18.2 -10.8 14.2 Something like this blend works pretty well for where March is now. July-Jun Jan Feb Mar 1989 -1.9 -18.4 -8.2 1972 -3.6 -15.0 -0.3 2009 -8.3 -18.2 -10.8 1952 1.6 -7.1 -6.0 Blend -3.1 -14.7 -6.3 2018 -2.2 -14.6 -6.5 Also, it is close to what the CFS shows for April.

On the last ENSO weekly update, it looked like the subsurface heat for 100-180W was leveling off at around +1.6. Will be interesting to see what happens next. Reading of +1 or -1 v. the long-term Nino 3.4 averages are much more impressive in Spring than in Winter historically.

I'm continually amazed at how strong this blend has been for Albuquerque since I started using it in October. The El Nino ended up only a 27.4C event, but for highs it has nonetheless remained a strong blend in all months since October.

Nate Mantua (JISAO) sent out the PDO values earlier this week. Nov 2018: -0.05 Dec 2018: +0.52 Jan 2019: +0.66 Feb 2019: +0.46 Nov-Feb mean: +0.40 I mentioned in the other thread that October Nino 1.2 readings blended with the PDO mean from Mar-Aug is a good indicator, and that blend implied a +0.4 PDO for Nov-Apr. Correlations to SE US cold and the PDO are actually stronger than correlations to SE cold and Nino 3.4 temps / SOI conditions. So it's been interesting seeing the PDO come in near 0 month after month. You can compare that to Nov-Apr 2014-15 when the PDO was near +2 despite similar SSTs in Nino 3.4 in winter.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 Subsurface heat is leveling off. Current values are like 2009-10 but more basin wide than 3/2010. 03MAR2010 26.3-0.1 27.5 0.7 28.1 1.1 29.2 1.0 10MAR2010 26.0-0.4 27.5 0.5 28.3 1.2 29.3 1.1 17MAR2010 26.2-0.3 27.8 0.7 28.4 1.1 29.2 1.1 24MAR2010 26.3 0.0 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.2 0.9

Given that the PDO is still neutral/negative it will be interesting to see what happens if another El Nino develops next winter, of if this one lasts for another year. My hunch is the current El Nino breaks up briefly later in the Summer, and then after that the real pattern for next winter will develop.

The JAMSTEC update is out. Went to a very warm Spring nationally. Still has an El Nino through Spring. It shows a cold neutral setup in Nino 3.4 in Fall.