raindancewx

It's pretty much a lock at this point that my June high in 2019 will be colder than in June 2018. So that is the 9th month in a row with colder highs year over year (Albuquerque). Virtually unprecedented in the context of the last 100 years. The hottest highs for month to month here are all East based La Ninas like 1933-34 or 2005-06, but even 1934-35 and 2006-07 has less consistent cool downs year over year. Taos Powerhorn, at 11,000 feet still has 3+ feet of snow by the way as of 6/13. Well ahead of any year for at least the last ten. Not surprisingly, New Mexico had its best ski-visit numbers in over 20 years (since 1997-98), with 20 feet of snow from Oct-May at Taos, and an average of 185 inches at the eight ski resorts (Angel Fire, Apache, Pajarito, Red River, Sandia, Santa Fe, Sipapu, Taos). The state had over 1 million ski visits for the season. https://snowbrains.com/stellar-snow-year-taos-best-season/

Jamstec June run warmed up its Nino 3.4 forecast through winter 2019-20. Shows a very weak El Nino now. Summer trended colder/wetter, winter looks cold/wet too.

The PDO values in recent months have popped positive using the Nate Mantua method - https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO 2018-11-01T00:00:00Z -0.05 2018-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.52 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 I find that the PDO in March-August blended with Nino 1.2 SSTs in October is a good indicator for Nov-Apr PDO values overall. So far, March-August value (Mar-May) is +0.82.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 29MAY2019 23.6 0.0 27.7 0.8 28.7 1.0 29.8 1.0 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 El Nino lives. Euro did pretty well at this time last June and keeps the El Nino into winter.

Late May-June 2017 were much warmer than 2019 so far, so at 11,000 feet up Taos Powderhorn snow pack is now much larger in 2019 than 2017 on June 8th. Still 48 inches of snow, which is higher - still - than at any point during the 2017-18 snow season.

Looking back at my winter analogs, three of the five years (1986-87, 1994-95, 2006-07) had 0-1 highs of 90F or hotter in Albuquerque through June 7th. That's dead on. Looks like we did finally hit 90F today, our latest first 90F reading since 1999 (20 years ago). Taos Powderhorn still had 51 inches of snow this morning at 11,000 feet, so we're now retaining snow much better than the 2016-17 season, even though that season had a higher snow pack at its peak, at the highest elevations. It is an amazing turn-around from last year when all the snow was completely gone by mid-May, even at 11,000 feet. Going to go white water rafting on the Mighty Rio Grande later this month.

Snowing again in New Mexico above 10,000 feet in the northern mountains. Usually a strong indicator for storms in the Plains in Spring.

ONI remained at +0.8C in March-May on the latest update. Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.91 2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72 2019 5 28.49 27.85 0.64 My Summer Analog blend was 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015. Here is how that looks v. May 2019 in Nino 3.4 https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 1966 - 27.55C 1987 - 28.56C 1992 - 28.97C 1993 - 28.71C 2015 - 28.85C May Blend: 28.37C May 2019: 28.49C Weeklies remain warm. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 29MAY2019 23.6 0.0 27.7 0.8 28.7 1.0 29.8 1.0 Subsurface heat is recovering too - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

I actually didn't have any hail at my place. The hail I showed was from the other side of the central mountain chain. Rarely have more than pea sized hail at my house.

Hail...still terrifying. SE New Mexico East of Albuquerque

Updated ONI / CPC numbers for May should be out this week. Subsurface heat fell again in May for the 100-180W zone in the tropical pacific. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W 2019 3 0.89 1.07 1.36 2019 4 0.39 0.54 0.58 2019 5 0.02 0.07 0.04 The 1.36, 0.58, 0.04 blend is near identical to 2005. Year March April May Match 2019 1.36 0.58 0.04 0.00 2005 1.27 0.49 0.00 0.22 1990 1.14 0.65 0.05 0.30 1981 1.02 0.77 0.24 0.73 1992 0.83 0.38 -0.32 1.09 2002 0.55 0.32 0.07 1.10 Subsurface does look like it is coming back a bit, so 2005 will likely fall off as a good analog.

Here is how my Spring forecast did locally. Damn close for the seasonal high and monthly precip totals in Albuquerque, less good for the monthly highs. Original forecast document from 2/10 with the image below. https://www.scribd.com/document/399335727/Spring-2019-Outlook

Coldest May for Albuquerque since 1980. The Canadian has a somewhat different look nationally for June than the CFS. It still has an El Nino in winter 2019-20, but it did trend weaker this run. Since it has another east-central / basin wide El Nino for 2019-20, the look disfavors the East for cold.

CPC final June outlook ended up pretty similar to my Summer forecast idea for June from a few weeks ago. Taos Powderhorn still has 63 inches of snow (11,000 feet up), so will be interesting to see if it lasts into late June or July if we verify with a cold wet June as CPC expects. May marked the 8th month in a row in Albuquerque with colder highs year over year, and seven of eight dropped by 4-10F, not small amounts. I can't find any Junes in the last 120 years that are more than 18F warmer than the preceding May, so can pretty definitively rule out a very hot June for this area of the world. Expecting June to come in with a high of around 90F - about average. That will feel pretty warm if it verifies since we haven't had temperatures above 85F here yet. Latest first 86F reading since 1931 here is June 9.

We'll see how 5/31 highs/lows end up, but if Albuquerque comes in colder on 5/31 than in 2015, which looks likely, since it was 88F in 2015, this is probably the coldest May for Albuquerque in like 40 years, or more, again depending on 5/31.

Heat off the SE US this Spring is about as anomalously warm as any patch of waters on the Earth.

My hunch is July will be very hot in the East. That's very strongly telegraphed in the data. I went with 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 as my Summer blend, in the forecast I linked above. Years after low-solar El Ninos, and then with 2015/1992/1993 blended in to account for the warmth in Nino 3.4 in Spring, which is near record levels. I don't think we're done with these 100F readings in the South. Jacksonville, FL hit 100F a few days ago - that's damn impressive for that area in May.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01MAY2019 25.1 0.3 28.1 0.8 28.7 0.9 29.4 0.7 08MAY2019 24.6 0.1 27.7 0.5 28.3 0.5 29.4 0.7 15MAY2019 24.1-0.1 27.5 0.4 28.5 0.7 29.5 0.8 22MAY2019 24.5 0.6 27.7 0.7 28.7 0.8 29.7 0.9 28.6C in Nino 3.4 for May? Some similar Mays would be 1957, 1982, 1987, 1993, 1997, 1998. Those are 28.6C +/-0.2C. 1983, 1992 and 2015 are the Mays that are above 28.8C since 1950 in Nino 3.4. Of the years, 1957 looks close to what I expect for June. 1982, 1993, 1997 is too cold, 1987 is too warm, and 1998 is just wrong looking. 1983, 1992 are also too cold. June 2015 doesn't look super far off. A blend of 1957, 1987, 1993, 2015 might be about right, if 1957/1993 are given extra weight. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

MJO looks like it will start June in phase 2 at fairly high amplitude. That's a bit similar to a blend of 1986, 1987, 2001 if you just go by the MJO amplitude and timing. Not super dis-similar as a blend to my analogs or to what the CFS shows. If you look at where the core of the wetness has been in May, you'd probably shift the blue area a bit north, like the CFS has it.

Still about 5.5 feet of snow at 11,000 feet at the Taos Powderhorn site. The Nov-Apr period wasn't as wet as 2016-17, so snow pack never got as high as that year at that site, but the melt off has been slower from peak snow pack to late May.

These are monthly highs in Albuquerque. Assuming we'll be around 75F in May, we've had seven of eight months with at least a 4F year/year high decline. Part of that is because 2017-18 was so warm, but I've looked, it's still very rare historically to get eight months in a row with drops in highs, almost unheard of since the 1890s actually. High ABQ (F) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2017 72.1 65.4 53.1 51.8 56.4 63.5 74.5 84.5 2018 66.8 55.4 47.2 46.0 51.5 62.2 70.3 75.0 If the 4F+ drops were to continue into Summer here, June 2018 was 92.8F, July 2018 was 92.0F, August was 90.3F, and September was 84.8F. Long-term averages (1931-2018) are 90, 92, 89.3, 82.6 for those months. So it was pretty hot in June. A similar extended year/year drop for eight months in a row, in the same period did happen in 1985-86 to 1986-87, so I have been looking at Summer 1987 (also a low solar El Nino winter with rising solar-activity as we seem to be seeing now, with four/six months in Nov-Apr increasing y/y in solar activity). Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 1985 69.5 57.4 50.6 54.6 54.8 64.7 70.3 77.8 1986 66.5 52.8 46.0 43.8 50.3 57.5 69.1 75.4

I had July pretty hot in the SE US (maybe +5F? in some spots). I put this out in mid-May. Where I live, monthly highs have been colder year/year for at least eight months in a row. At this point, I don't see why that won't continue in June. Do have some concerns that the monsoon will be weak in July but come on stronger in August. https://t.co/nXVKwXTHVt I don't know that Nino 3.4 will be as warm as my analog blend implies, but the pattern is still kind of behaving like an El Nino so I think I'm probably OK through at least July. The wetness in the Plains and snow-pack in the West in June will interfere with the usual placement of highs over the Western half of the US I think.

GFS actually still has quite a bit of snow for the high terrain of the west over the next ten days. It's not completely unheard of for snow to fall in June in New Mexico down to about 7,500 feet. Red River and Las Vegas are both populated and have had snows in June. Yesterday was actually the latest I've seen the Sandias covered in snow since I've lived in Albuquerque.

My informal measure for severe outbreaks is unusually low-elevation or unusually far south in New Mexico. Quemado, Santa Fe, Taos, Gallup, Grants, Zuni Pueblo all had snow today - some record late accumulating snowfalls were reported, so I wouldn't give up on the tornado outbreak yet, the lows this Spring have been extraordinary.