raindancewx

I had a relatively low snow totals for the NE coast in my winter forecast last October, based on the premise that nearly all low-solar El Ninos see below average snow from Boston to Philadelphia back to the 1800s. Billings and much of the Northern Plains had one of their all-time cold months in February 2019, which isn't what I forecast, but my blend of 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 was pretty close from about 12/1-1/31, really even through 2/10. The severe cold in the Plains and West lasted too long in February though. Snowfall was heavy in the West, downwind of the Lakes in some areas and in the Plains - and I had that forecast too. One thing I can say for this winter, with relatively high confidence: it is very rare to get even three very cold winters in Montana and the Dakotas, as we have seen in some areas for 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19. Billings finished around 4F below the 1951-2010 average high in all three DJF seasons. Last time you had three severely cold winters in a row there was 1970-71, 1971-72, 1972-73. (1970 and 2016 were both after two El Ninos in a row, 1970, 1971, 1972 is a La/La/El sequence like 2016/2017/2018). Back to the 1930s, I can't find four severely cold winters in a row like that in that part of the US. It could still be 1-2F below normal, but you really have to bet on a warmer winter up there at this point, which has some interesting implications about the US pattern. 2018-19 was well on its way to being warm in Montana through January, but the average high in February 2019 was like 22F or something below average in Billings, coldest February since 1936 (another year with some very impressive Summer heat). A lot of years with impressive heat waves in Western Europe or the Eastern US during Summer actually end up cold somewhere in the West. The 20 hottest average high Summers in Philadelphia include winters many winters in the West that have at least brief periods of record/near record in the West.

Hello... Newman! I like 1966 as a Summer analog. I used 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 as a blend in my Summer forecast from May linked a few pages ago. Composite July had a cool West / hot East, which looks about right. 1992-93 stayed in El Nino territory pretty late into the year, before SSTs fell off briefly for winter, and then warmed in Spring. The new Canadian should be out next week. Will be interesting to see what it has. The SST depictions start to become much better for winter in August. My guess is this winter will actually be much harder to forecast than last year. Low-solar winters, following a El Nino winter, that are not El Ninos are a pretty interesting group since 1930: 1931, 1942, 1952, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1995, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016. Some really interesting winters in the West in those years.

My Summer forecast had a fairly dry July for the SW before the Monsoon kicked in strongly during August. We'll see how that goes shortly. The warm signal in the data for the East has largely verified pretty well. Very hard to find a cold July in the East when Nino 3.4 is warm in March-May.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 12JUN2019 23.1 0.1 26.9 0.4 28.4 0.7 29.8 1.0 19JUN2019 22.4-0.3 26.5 0.2 28.1 0.5 29.6 0.8 26JUN2019 22.1-0.3 26.5 0.4 27.8 0.3 29.0 0.2 03JUL2019 21.8-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.7 0.9 10JUL2019 21.7-0.2 25.9 0.1 27.7 0.4 29.7 0.9 17JUL2019 21.3-0.3 25.6 0.0 27.4 0.2 29.7 0.9 Warmth continues to thin in the Eastern Nino zones. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for PDO remained pretty positive in June too, by the way - https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z 1.09 A lot of the models have winter something like a cold Nino 1.2/3, flat Nino 3.4, warm Nino 4, with low solar, a warm Atlantic, a positive PDO, and it would be a winter following an El Nino. I think a blend of low-solar West-based El Ninos (2004, 2009), a Neutral (2003), and low solar La Ninas with a positive PDO (1984, 2016) has some merit if we have Neutral conditions. Also threw in 2007 (low solar, major La Nina) to lower the overall temperatures in the Tropical Pacific. That blend matches my weather locally fairly well for June/July (cold then warm) and seems to look like what the models currently have for winter. Looks OK for things like the QBO too. The Summer of 2012 had a big -NAO period, and then the cold went into the West. That is what the Jamstec shows, and what you get if you map the years I blended. These aren't my analogs, but this is the time of year I start to test matches for winter. The Jamstec kind of looks like a slightly warmed up version of 2012-13 in the Tropics, with a positive PDO and lower solar. If its SST depiction is correct (it probably isn't yet), the temperature idea isn't crazy given the SST look.

Idea of a pretty hot East in July after a fairly cool June for much of the US looks pretty good now. Lot of places in the NE will flirt with 100 degree highs. Have fun with that. Still hasn't topped 97 in Albuquerque, although it may this week.

The sea ice extent is below 2012 for July 15, but a tiny bit ahead of 2011. Will depend on how Aug/Sept play out. For people talking about 2013...the 2014 minimum wasn't exactly far off from 2013. You guys have to remember, there will be a major volcanic eruption at some point in the next 20 years - we'll beat 2013 and 2014 for relatively high minimum extent with a volcano, especially if the AMO flips cold again. I look at 1992 as the limit for what is possible now - cold AMO, volcano (Pinatubo), 7.2m sq km min - up a million from 1991 - and it's not like 1991 was a hot AMO and 1992 was cold - it was probably the volcano. So a year like 2013 or 2014, with a colder Atlantic and a volcanic eruption? We beat 2013 in that year with a higher min.

My point is that the ACE Index is a pretty good indicator for whether the SW is warm, average or even cool in a La Nina for highs - which gives ideas about the overall setup. Just as with El Ninos, I don't find much (any) correlation between SSTs/ONI/SSTA in Nino 3.4 in winter and highs in the SW. But things that happen coinciding with the ENSO phase do matter quite a bit. As an indicator, ACE actually beats winter or cold season AMO values in La Ninas. July still looks like my Summer analogs which assumed the El Nino would last deep into Spring or even Summer - The waters by South America are much colder than in 2017 - presumably they'll spread West with time as the last bit of warmth thins out around 170W? The Jamstec has a very cold Nino 1.2/3 in Fall, and then it warms up there as the coldest anomalies shift West.

In La Nina winters, the Atlantic ACE index is one of the strongest indicators I can find for whether the SW will be hot or not. The years when your deity of choice sends out hurricane after hurricane to ravage the shoreline from coast to coast are absolutely bone dry and severely hot in the SW US. 1933-34 (the epitome of the Dustbowl) and 2005-06, the closest year to the Dustbowl pattern in the last 20 years, both had ACE indexes of over 250 - with record heat and less than a quarter inch of precipitation in Albuquerque. The 2017-18 year was no slouch either, ACE was 225, and we roasted, but the great SOI crash of February 2018 did kind of save that winter from record heat and dryness. Right now, the ACE index is under 5 for the season - http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/ Above 125, all our La Nina winter are warmer than average (49.5F).

I've been attempting to refine my methods for predicting high temperatures anomalies in the SW in La Ninas. It looks like the ACE Index in the Atlantic is a pretty strong indicator. Historically severe Atlantic hurricane seasons, in La Ninas, tend to be very hot, dry winters in Albuquerque. I'm not even convinced this will be a La Nina, but just for reference, I thought this was interesting - the three hottest La Ninas were all absolutely terrible, life destroying hurricane seasons - 1933, 2005, 2017. The two La Ninas over 250 on the Ace Index are 2005-06 and 1933-34 - essentially low-solar, Dust Bowl BS patterns in each case.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 12JUN2019 23.1 0.1 26.9 0.4 28.4 0.7 29.8 1.0 19JUN2019 22.4-0.3 26.5 0.2 28.1 0.5 29.6 0.8 26JUN2019 22.1-0.3 26.5 0.4 27.8 0.3 29.0 0.2 03JUL2019 21.8-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.7 0.9 10JUL2019 21.7-0.2 25.9 0.1 27.7 0.4 29.7 0.9 07JUN2017 23.1-0.1 26.9 0.3 28.1 0.4 29.3 0.5 14JUN2017 22.9 0.0 26.7 0.2 28.2 0.5 29.4 0.6 21JUN2017 22.9 0.3 26.7 0.4 28.3 0.7 29.5 0.7 28JUN2017 22.8 0.4 26.5 0.4 28.1 0.7 29.4 0.6 05JUL2017 21.7-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.4 0.6 12JUL2017 21.8 0.0 26.1 0.4 27.8 0.5 29.3 0.5 08JUN2016 23.7 0.6 26.6 0.0 27.8 0.1 29.5 0.6 15JUN2016 23.3 0.4 26.6 0.2 27.8 0.2 29.5 0.7 22JUN2016 22.4-0.1 25.9-0.3 27.2-0.4 29.3 0.5 29JUN2016 22.6 0.4 25.9-0.1 27.1-0.4 29.1 0.3 06JUL2016 22.2 0.2 25.5-0.4 27.0-0.4 29.1 0.3 13JUL2016 21.8 0.0 25.1-0.6 26.7-0.6 29.1 0.3 Nino 3.4 is around 28.2C this May-July, v. 27.6C last May-July - favoring a wetter far southern US. Not much signal for winter from the -NAO in May-July.

Streak of colder year/year highs looks like it may end this July. May continue - will be close. From Oct 2018 to June 2019, each month was colder than Oct 2017 to June 2018. July 2018 had a high of 92F. We're below that now, but a fair number of mid-90s look likely for the next week to ten days.

The new Jamstec has a flat-Neutral winter now, with the eastern zones pretty cold. It has the SW cold, US warm. It looks a bit like a blend of 1931, 1987, 2004, 2004, 2016, 2017, 2017 for the oceans and US (a small pool of near average to slightly cool in the SW with a warm US). Something relevant will change by October, but low-solar Neutrals actually are pretty cold in the SW typically. Worth noting: in 2017, it didn't see a La Nina until September 2017. The July forecast is actually pretty close to the May forecast though, unlike in 2017, when the Spring outlook consistently had a moderate El Nino. The model also has a very hot Fall nationally - hottest Fall forecast I've seen from it actually.

Finally topped 95F today in Albuquerque - pretty late for that to happen for the first time in a calendar year. Have yet to hit 100F officially. Some areas in town surely did today though.

European has abandoned El Nino chances for winter. My personal, totally subjective odds are at 65% Neutral, 30% La Nina, 5% El Nino at this point. The subsurface, if you look back at July 2017 on the animations I post, is simultaneously warmer and cooler than July 2019. Nino 3 is already in La Nina territory this July on Tropical Tidbits, but Nino 3.4 is still warm in the western areas - I think that general look will hold for a while. You can think of it as an "east-based" cold Neutral? That's what I like for winter. Don't see the heat in Nino 4 going anywhere soon, and it should hold up Nino 3.4. A Neutral or La Nina winter, after an El Nino, with low-solar conditions and the east (Nino 1.2/3) colder than the west (Nino 3.4/4) is a pretty interesting winter. Low-solar, non-El Nino winters, after an El Nino include 1931, 1942, 1952, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1995, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016. Winters a year after an El Nino tend to be titled toward warmth and wetness. Part of why I'm skeptical of a La Nina for this winter is how positive the PDO has become since April - very different from 2017 which had a similar subsurface and Nino 3.4 SST reading in June.

The subsurface for June 2019 was +0.24. For 1979-2018, that typically meant Neutral in winter, but you can see a few La Nina and El Ninos - weak - in there too. Subsurface becomes a much better indicator in September, the r-squared approaches 0.75. June 2017 subsurface was almost identical to this year, but followed a La Nina. Last year, June was +0.86. 100-180W Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1979 0.39 0.97 0.31 -0.21 0.06 0.35 0.19 0.49 0.91 0.63 1.06 0.92 1980 0.83 0.62 0.50 0.82 1.14 1.17 0.27 0.04 -0.26 0.02 0.35 0.61 1981 0.36 0.30 1.02 0.77 0.24 -0.22 -0.66 -0.59 0.14 0.25 0.02 -0.22 1982 0.21 0.56 0.92 0.93 0.96 1.01 1.11 1.61 1.86 2.07 1.92 1.45 1983 0.05 -0.81 -0.95 0.23 -0.32 -1.12 -1.51 -1.66 -2.15 -2.25 -1.81 -1.36 1984 -0.87 -0.90 -0.92 -0.77 -1.11 -1.15 -0.25 -0.22 -0.37 -0.93 -0.63 -0.35 1985 -0.16 -0.34 -0.65 -0.24 0.09 -0.02 -0.08 0.24 -0.20 -0.26 0.11 0.27 1986 0.21 0.41 0.46 -0.02 0.31 0.80 0.45 0.50 0.65 0.95 0.52 0.97 1987 1.22 0.17 0.60 0.31 0.58 0.37 -0.10 0.20 -0.25 -0.17 -0.37 -0.67 1988 -0.45 -0.88 -1.31 -1.76 -1.55 -1.22 -0.87 -0.72 -1.07 -2.01 -2.04 -1.65 1989 -0.89 -0.11 0.42 0.50 0.61 0.87 0.78 0.35 0.26 -0.02 -0.22 0.64 1990 0.78 1.08 1.14 0.65 0.05 -0.30 0.27 0.46 0.25 0.50 0.38 0.88 1991 0.92 0.29 0.18 0.80 0.76 0.77 0.73 0.49 0.60 1.41 1.22 1.71 1992 1.57 1.98 0.83 0.38 -0.32 -0.78 -0.73 -0.73 -0.56 -0.50 -0.27 0.19 1993 0.27 0.28 0.56 0.81 0.42 -0.29 -0.40 -0.38 0.12 0.10 0.02 -0.33 1994 -0.62 -0.60 -0.40 -0.14 0.16 0.14 0.02 0.67 0.70 1.12 1.16 0.80 1995 0.51 0.13 -0.44 -0.60 -0.44 -0.14 -0.44 -0.84 -1.20 -1.03 -0.86 -0.84 1996 -0.29 -0.12 0.05 0.01 -0.16 0.17 -0.18 -0.35 -0.46 -0.30 -0.47 -0.30 1997 0.56 1.00 1.17 2.17 2.01 2.25 1.83 1.79 2.38 2.56 2.30 1.02 1998 0.00 -0.38 -0.61 -1.06 -1.75 -2.16 -2.29 -2.46 -2.15 -2.35 -2.33 -2.18 1999 -1.80 -1.61 -0.99 -0.91 -0.81 -0.52 -0.64 -1.21 -1.27 -1.07 -1.48 -1.55 2000 -1.28 -0.91 -0.64 -0.31 -0.18 0.08 0.03 0.00 -0.12 -0.37 -0.67 -0.96 2001 -0.56 -0.63 -0.29 0.26 0.11 0.46 0.61 0.12 0.35 0.28 0.22 0.17 2002 0.95 0.78 0.55 0.32 0.07 0.67 0.73 1.05 1.41 1.72 1.58 0.74 2003 0.27 -0.11 -0.06 -0.49 -0.85 0.13 0.53 0.03 0.10 0.34 0.54 0.17 2004 0.05 0.19 -0.10 0.21 0.30 0.04 0.83 0.78 0.87 0.61 0.78 0.79 2005 0.52 0.59 1.27 0.49 0.00 0.11 -0.20 -0.42 -0.33 -0.14 -0.57 -0.74 2006 -0.97 -0.92 -0.29 0.42 0.54 0.76 0.73 1.05 1.13 0.80 1.35 0.86 2007 -0.46 -0.77 -0.72 -0.59 -0.58 -0.18 -0.48 -0.68 -1.03 -1.19 -1.19 -1.08 2008 -1.50 -1.20 -0.45 0.02 0.17 0.38 0.42 -0.15 -0.69 -0.48 -0.77 -1.44 2009 -1.08 -0.50 0.08 0.65 0.87 1.13 1.05 0.79 0.76 1.04 1.75 1.36 2010 1.14 1.24 0.97 -0.06 -1.00 -1.34 -1.36 -1.74 -1.93 -1.92 -1.64 -1.56 2011 -1.27 -0.22 0.50 0.58 0.47 0.39 0.06 -0.54 -1.01 -1.26 -0.92 -1.07 2012 -1.17 -0.46 0.00 0.27 0.47 0.56 0.82 0.83 0.36 0.40 0.34 -0.27 2013 -0.59 -0.17 0.06 -0.06 -0.14 0.26 0.41 0.32 0.38 0.15 0.62 0.26 2014 -0.33 0.39 1.60 1.41 0.95 0.27 -0.18 0.39 0.64 0.53 0.90 0.54 2015 0.15 0.83 1.52 1.74 1.53 1.51 1.69 1.97 1.80 1.91 1.78 1.20 2016 1.25 0.56 -0.31 -0.88 -1.15 -1.05 -0.76 -0.71 -0.71 -0.92 -0.62 -0.24 2017 0.01 0.15 0.22 0.06 0.30 0.22 0.16 -0.40 -0.79 -0.97 -0.84 -0.75 2018 -0.16 -0.11 0.51 0.80 0.88 0.86 0.81 0.81 1.12 1.59 1.36 1.06 2019 0.59 0.94 1.19 0.41 0.07 0.24

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 12JUN2019 23.1 0.1 26.9 0.4 28.4 0.7 29.8 1.0 19JUN2019 22.4-0.3 26.5 0.2 28.1 0.5 29.6 0.8 26JUN2019 22.1-0.3 26.5 0.4 27.8 0.3 29.0 0.2 03JUL2019 21.8-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.7 0.9 Heat is draining West in the Nino zones? On the subsurface data, the weekly value is still neutral. In 2016, Nino 3.4 was already in La Nina territory by this point, with Nino 1.2 quite warm still. Some very early ideas for winter - will change several times by October 10 - AMO and PDO both more positive than last year. - Eastern Tropical Pacific colder than Western Tropical Pacific. - Low Solar - how low is an open question. - If the -NAO lasts all of July, that is a fairly strong cold signal for the East in December. - Cold Junes highs are much more likely than other Junes to be followed by cold winter highs in the Southwest. In Albuquerque, 12/19 winters are 2F or more below the 100-year average high after a June that is cold. This is offset this year by the tendency for winters to be warm here a year after an El Nino.

I tend to look for extended periods of blocking / unusual patterns at the solar minimum. That seems to be what is happening, the NAO has been negative pretty consistently since May. Prior to the NAO help, you tend to have severe Oct-May periods in the SW when an El Nino follows a La Nina at the solar minimum. People dispute it, or say it is auto-correlation or whatever, but all the solar-minimum periods (<55 sunspots from July-June) featured at least one severe winter in the US for extreme cold, it's much more common statistically for the US to be cold by the minimum. The snow also seems to be self-reinforcing for cold. The ground stays white, longer. Then wet, longer. Harder to build heat. So Albuquerque has yet to hit 96F as of July 6 (we won't on the 7th either since it rained a lot today), which has happened like seven times this late into the year since 1931, and only three times since 1950. It has snowed more or less every 10 days to three weeks in our mountains (NM) from mid-Oct to mid-June.

You all should sneak away from your locations and find a way to go white water rafting on the Rio Grande River this year - conditions are amazing. Beautiful, cold level four rapids to cool you off from the dry 90 degree air. Anyway, my hunch is that the remaining warm pool and the incoming cool pool, at least for the short term, will lead to some, but not dramatic cooling. We'll see. They effectively look evenly matched for now.

On my white water rafting trip today, the highest peaks in Northern New Mexico still had a little bit of snow. The guides for the trip were saying the run off on the Rio Grande was the best this late in the season in over 20 years. The rapid were pretty nuts, and the water was still very cold for July.

ONI came in at +0.7C for Apr-Jun 2019. Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 Here are monthly SSTs - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2018 7 27.42 27.26 0.16 2018 8 26.95 26.91 0.04 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.90 2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72 2019 5 28.50 27.85 0.65 2019 6 28.25 27.65 0.60 My blend of 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 for Summer had June at 28.20C in Nino 3.4 2015 6 28.90 27.65 1.25 1993 6 28.08 27.60 0.48 1992 6 28.30 27.60 0.70 1987 6 28.64 27.43 1.21 1966 6 27.63 27.35 0.29 1966 6 27.63 27.35 0.29 Analog Blend: 28.20C. Subsurface is fairly cold, but it is still warm near the surface and at the surface, so I think a slow cool down is likely for a few weeks at least.

June finished with a high of 87.9F in Albuquerque, and it never topped 95F on any day of the month - which is very rare, tied for 9th lowest individual June high since 1892 I think. Historically half of our 100F readings (or hotter) happen July 4th or earlier - so looks pretty promising if we make it to 7/4 without getting to 100F as forecast. After July 8th, only 35% of years will hit 100F at any point, and then it rapidly falls off from there, to less than 10% by the end of July. Cold Junes are substantially more likely to precede cold winters in New Mexico than average or warm Junes. That has my attention - but its still only like a 12/19 frequency relative to a 6/69 thing. Cold meaning a high 2F or more below the 100-year average. None of the El Ninos or borderline El Ninos that follow El Ninos are cold here historically - 1930, 1940, 1941, 1952, 1953, 1958, 1969, 1977, 1987, 1991, 2003, 2004, 2015. Neutrals are a different story though, and it kind of looks like we could see a Neutral, +PDO, +AMO, low solar, with a flat Modoki signature (0.0 in Nino 3, -0.2 Nino 1.2, +0.2 by the Philippines?) at the moment.

Those images of Guadalajara are pretty impressive. That's one way to cool the ground for sure. Albuquerque just had its coldest January-June average temperature since 1998 - running nearly four degrees colder than last year so far.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05JUN2019 22.9-0.4 27.2 0.6 28.6 0.9 29.9 1.1 12JUN2019 23.1 0.1 26.9 0.4 28.4 0.7 29.8 1.0 19JUN2019 22.4-0.3 26.5 0.2 28.1 0.5 29.6 0.8 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 6/26 is only on this site for now - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Equatorial Upper 300m temperature Average anomaly based on 1981-2010 Climatology (deg C) YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W 2018 8 0.75 0.73 0.81 2018 9 0.88 0.93 0.98 2018 10 1.08 1.29 1.47 2018 11 0.97 1.20 1.25 2018 12 0.71 0.88 0.92 2019 1 0.53 0.62 0.59 2019 2 0.59 0.76 0.94 2019 3 0.70 0.91 1.19 2019 4 0.21 0.39 0.41 2019 5 0.01 0.09 0.07 2019 6 -0.06 0.09 0.28 Annualized solar activity came in at 5.5 sunspots for the July 2018-June 2019 period. The solar cycle is roughly an 11-year interval, and this period was weaker than 2007-08, which had 7.2 sunspots annualized. For my friends in Boston, I'd like to remind you if we somehow keep the El Nino (unlikely now?) and low solar (pretty likely) into next winter, it isn't historically a great setup for snowfall. El Nino Sun Jul-J Bos Snow 1899 18.2 25.0 1900 8.6 17.5 1902 18.7 42.0 1911 5.4 31.6 1913 7.4 39.0 1914 44.5 22.3 1923 14.6 29.8 1930 46.3 40.8 1953 9.5 23.6 1963 29.1 63.0 1965 37.1 44.1 1976 23.2 58.5 1986 19.1 42.5 1994 36.9 14.9 2006 20.1 17.1 2009 13.2 35.7 2018 5.5 27.4 Mean 21.0 33.8

Canadian has a somewhat weaker El Nino in winter this run. Some big differences in the Canadian and CFS for July too. The CFS actually looks closer to what I expect. July looks like a derecho pattern.

El Nino looks pretty dead on Tropical Tidbits. Unfortunately for those of you in the South, a warm Nino 3.4 in March, April, May still is strongly correlated to a hot July, and the CFS has a pretty hot looking July now in the South. Canadian should be out with its new thoughts for weather and ENSO later tonight.