raindancewx

Been a long-time here since the trend in anomalies in Summer highs has gone cold, warmer, warmest for June, July, August. June was -2.1, July +1.5, and August should be around +3.0 in terms of highs against the respective long-term averages. 2000 and 2009 both had cold Junes that gradually gave way to a lot of warmth. The monsoon is fairly likely to finish below average here now too - about a 72% chance that the rains in the remainder of Aug/Sept will not be enough for the city to reach 4.31 inches of rain from 6/15-9/30. Leaning toward a very wet, slightly warm winter for now. Something like 2016, 2018, 2009, 2007, 2004, 2013 as a blend? Will have a better idea by mid-September.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 24JUL2019 21.1-0.2 25.5 0.0 27.6 0.4 29.8 1.0 31JUL2019 20.6-0.5 25.2-0.2 27.5 0.5 29.8 1.0 07AUG2019 20.3-0.6 25.3 0.1 27.3 0.4 29.6 0.9 14AUG2019 20.0-0.7 24.7-0.3 27.0 0.1 29.5 0.8 Nino 4 is near record warm for August - 29.77C in 2015 is the highest it has been measured. I think it will finish around 29.55C in 2019. We're "behind" (warmer) El Nino to La Nina years in Nino 4- so I remain in camp Neutral at this point, as Nino 4 will be able to fight off pulses of cold from the East and subsurface. The past month is like 2018 (Western areas) and 2017 (Eastern areas). 26JUL1995 20.8-0.5 25.1-0.3 26.8-0.3 28.6-0.1 02AUG1995 20.3-0.8 24.8-0.5 26.7-0.3 28.5-0.2 09AUG1995 19.9-1.0 24.3-0.8 26.3-0.6 28.3-0.4 16AUG1995 20.0-0.7 24.3-0.7 26.4-0.4 28.5-0.2 29JUL1998 23.2 2.0 24.9-0.5 25.7-1.4 27.8-1.0 05AUG1998 22.6 1.7 24.8-0.4 25.6-1.4 27.9-0.8 12AUG1998 21.8 1.1 24.6-0.5 25.5-1.4 27.8-0.9 27JUL2005 20.8-0.5 25.4 0.0 27.1 0.1 28.9 0.1 03AUG2005 20.8-0.2 25.2-0.1 26.9-0.1 28.8 0.1 10AUG2005 20.6-0.2 25.2 0.1 26.9 0.0 28.7 0.0 17AUG2005 20.4-0.2 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.2 28.9 0.2 25JUL2007 20.3-1.0 24.5-1.0 26.6-0.5 28.9 0.1 01AUG2007 19.6-1.5 24.1-1.2 26.4-0.6 28.7 0.0 08AUG2007 19.3-1.6 23.8-1.3 26.2-0.7 28.6-0.1 15AUG2007 19.7-1.0 24.0-1.0 26.3-0.6 28.6-0.1 28JUL2010 19.5-1.7 24.0-1.4 25.6-1.4 27.8-1.0 04AUG2010 19.5-1.5 24.0-1.3 25.8-1.2 27.7-1.0 11AUG2010 19.6-1.2 24.1-1.0 25.7-1.2 27.5-1.2 18AUG2010 19.2-1.4 23.8-1.1 25.6-1.2 27.5-1.1 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 25JUL2018 21.1-0.3 25.8 0.3 27.4 0.3 29.0 0.3 01AUG2018 21.2 0.1 25.3 0.0 27.1 0.1 29.1 0.4 08AUG2018 20.8-0.1 25.1-0.1 27.1 0.2 29.2 0.5 15AUG2018 20.9 0.2 25.4 0.4 27.3 0.4 29.5 0.8 Long term, Nino 4 is warmth pretty strongly correlated to a cold October. It is a warm signal for the West and North in September - but weak.

One thing about this winter that may be different from last year - the MJO has been kind of dead for a while. If it locks in as dead, the temporary incredible cold shots and heat waves that dominated last winter seem less likely - more consistent weather through the whole winter. The pattern of late (cold middle) has been remarkably consistent, this August still looks a lot like last August in most of the US, and the Plains had the severe fall/winter/spring too.

Historically, out of every 3 month period from 1950-2018, only 8.7% see a -NAO (at or below -0.3) each month. The four month streaks are somewhat rarer (5.0%), and by six months it is down to 1.5% historically. So the NAO is fairly likely to go neutral/positive in Sept or Oct, which would be months five or six of the -NAO streak. The math in winter is the same - 6/69 winters (8.7%) of Dec-Feb periods see each month at -0.3 or less. My hunch is there is a big -NAO winter (overall maybe not each month) coming in the next two-three years, but I don't know that it is this one. I'd guess 2020-21, but we'll see. The 12 month sunspot mean was 5.5 for July 2018-June 2019, and we got down to 2.3 for July 2008-June 2009, centered around early 2009 for the absolute min. So early 2020 is the target with the current cycle, and then maybe a -NAO winter after that, like in 2009-10.

Looking historically, it is fairly rare to get extended -NAO streaks (-0.3 or lower for more than three months). Will be interesting to what happens. August will be month four. If you match up the difference in the monthly NAO for May-Apr and Sept-Mar ahead of a given winter, you can usually get a pretty good sense of what the NAO will do in winter. The May-Apr and Sept-Mar readings last year for the NAO were near identical to 1975-76, a year near the solar minimum that had a positive NAO during winter. Will be interesting to see what September finishes with for the monthly NAO-reading. NAO Sept-Mar May-Apr DJF 1975 2.17 1.08 0.23 2018 2.60 0.88 0.50 I'm assuming the -NAO stays in September, but it comes up toward 0. If that is the case, 2017 and 1994 might be a good blend for the NAO in 2019. I selected these time periods because they have fairly high correlations to winter (each has an r-square near 0.1 individually for 1950-2018), and Sept/Mar represent the highest/lowest points for Atlantic heat, and May is usually a good indicator for how the Spring/Summer will setup in the Atlantic. 1994 -2.58 -1.71 1.36 2017 -1.35 -3.64 1.30 Mean -1.97 -2.68 1.33 2019 -1.80 -3.09 The subsurface is still pretty cold east of 120W, and even in the western part of Nino 3.4, there is a fair amount of cool water below the thin warm patch near the surface.

I was kind of surprised at how close 2004 has been for SSTs globally for the past month. Fairly strong match for local weather here since Spring too. My hunch is the blue area off South America expands, and the deep reds by 180W shrink somewhat. PDO zone will likely fill in red around 180W too, as the waters by Alaska cool a bit, relative to normals.

The August Jamstec has gone back to near-El Nino conditions again for winter, about 0.5C lower than what it forecast last August for 2018-19, when it correctly had the ONI peak around +1.0 (it was +0.9C). Even so, the US is not depicted as particularly cold anywhere. The latest run has the East Coast slightly cold, the rest of the US warm.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO PDO is still hanging around +1 on the JISAO methodology - 2019-01-01T00:00:00Z 0.66 2019-02-01T00:00:00Z 0.46 2019-03-01T00:00:00Z 0.37 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z 1.07 2019-05-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 2019-06-01T00:00:00Z 1.09 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z 1.03 I got a response about the Jamstec Modoki data from Toru Miyama. On the link he gives, you can download the data. The Modoki value for the 2018-19 winter was +0.51, below 2009, 1968 and the other most Modoki winters. It was actually around +0.4 in Dec-Jan, but instead of lowering in February as my analogs had, it increased, which is why February went kind of nuts for the Plains (coldest month in Billings since 1936). The year I double weighted for the 2018-19 forecast, 1994-95, did have a Modoki value virtually identical to last winter, so I think the blend I had was pretty decent for the tropical pacific.

I asked one of the Jamstec researchers on Twitter to update the EMI (El Nino Modoki Index) data - it hasn't been updated since November for the monthly data. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 17JUL2019 21.3-0.3 25.6 0.0 27.4 0.2 29.7 0.9 24JUL2019 21.1-0.2 25.5 0.0 27.6 0.4 29.8 1.0 31JUL2019 20.6-0.5 25.2-0.2 27.5 0.5 29.8 1.0 07AUG2019 20.3-0.6 25.3 0.1 27.3 0.4 29.6 0.9 19JUL2017 21.4-0.1 25.7 0.2 27.6 0.4 29.2 0.4 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 Nino zones still aren't dramatically different in the East from 2017, but the western zones were far colder by this point in 2017. Will be hard for a La Nina to form if Nino 3.4 / 4 stay pretty warm for much longer. I was looking through the DJF data earlier - I think Nino 4 could end up around 28.70C (colder than last year, well above average though), with Nino 1.2 around 24.00C (cooler than average and last year). I wanted to see if that was a record temperature disparity between the two zones during winter. It is not, but it isn't far off from the spread in 1953-54, which is the record, when you had a very cold Nino 1.2 (23.25C) and a warm Nino 4 (28.37C). Nino 4 is a fairly strong wet signal for the West when it is warm. The subsurface stuff has a different scale now? The subsurface almost looks like a "warm-Neutral" Modoki. Will be curious to see what the Jamstec has this month. Pending August, a blend of 1995-96 (x2), 2004-05, 2009-10 (x3), 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17, 2018-19 looks somewhat like the ocean pattern I expect for winter, while also matching my monthly Summer highs and monthly Summer precipitation. As a blend, Nino 3.4 would be +0.3C v. 1951-2010 (26.8C), with a warmer Nino 4 and much colder Nino 1.2 and Nino 3. As a blend, it is a weakly positive PDO (which I like if Nino 1.2 stays cold), with a warm Atlantic and low solar. Will continue to revise and test analogs as Summer data comes in. As a blend, those year follow a 26.95C or so Nino 3.4 winter, and 2018-19 was 27.39C.

My hunch is the Nino 1.2 / Nino 3 coolness will keep the PDO from maintaining that big blob of warmth off the coast of Alaska. The NAO is still negative, and should finish August negative. The very warm AMO / cold East warm West tropical Pacific is relatively similar to 2012, but with a few major differences. Big persistent -NAO in these months of 2012 too. A warmed up 2012 in the tropical Pacific, after an El Nino, with lower solar is probably a colder, wetter winter than 2012-13 nationally, but we'll see. I want to see how August plays out locally, not a lot of Summers following an El Nino winter that go cold June before warming up late. Monsoon has been weak/erratic so far, which is atypical with a positive PDO/low solar, but consistent following a wet cold/winter in the Southwest - will be interesting to see how we finish for Summer rains.

Almost all the European plumes have joined the Neutral train. The model had the right idea for the El Nino last August for reference. Nino 1.2 is forecast to remain quite cold for the foreseeable future - with Nino 3 maybe dropping negative, than warming slightly positive. Nino 4 is forecast to remain positive throughout the foreseeable future.

It looks to me like the warm waters 140W-170W are going to remain and get reinforced, while the cold waters 120W and east are also going to get reinforced. Nino 3.4 is 120W-170W. So..Neutral into Fall at least?

In an SOI sense, May (-7.4), June (-10.0), July (-5.9) is pretty similar to recent years like 1992, 1993, 2002, 2006. A low solar El Nino winter after an El Nino would be very difficult to analog with historical years. 2004, 1987, 2015 all had 50-70 sunspots in July-June on an annualized basis. We'll probably be at...10 or so. Or less. 1930 had 40/month after the weak El Nino of 1929-30. SOI May Jun Jul Match 2019 -7.4 -10 -5.9 0 2006 -7.7 -6.7 -8.6 6.3 1946 -10.0 -8.8 -9.5 7.4 1949 -4.8 -10.9 -1.6 7.8 1993 -7.3 -14.4 -10.1 8.7 1992 0.4 -11.9 -6.5 10.3 2002 -13.8 -6.8 -7.1 10.8

I haven't looked - how similar was July 2019 to the heat wave in Europe in 2003 synoptically?

Weeklies show more heat decay in Nino 1.2 / 3 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03JUL2019 21.8-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.7 0.9 10JUL2019 21.7-0.2 25.9 0.1 27.7 0.4 29.7 0.9 17JUL2019 21.3-0.3 25.6 0.0 27.4 0.2 29.7 0.9 24JUL2019 21.1-0.2 25.5 0.0 27.6 0.4 29.8 1.0 31JUL2019 20.6-0.5 25.2-0.2 27.5 0.5 29.8 1.0 05JUL2017 21.7-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.4 0.6 12JUL2017 21.8 0.0 26.1 0.4 27.8 0.5 29.3 0.5 19JUL2017 21.4-0.1 25.7 0.2 27.6 0.4 29.2 0.4 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 +0.44C / 27.70C for July 2019 in Nino 3.4

ONI fell to +0.5C for MJJ. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2018 7 27.42 27.26 0.16 2018 8 26.95 26.91 0.04 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.82 2019 3 28.11 27.21 0.90 2019 4 28.46 27.73 0.72 2019 5 28.50 27.85 0.65 2019 6 28.19 27.65 0.54 2019 7 27.70 27.26 0.44

If 1969 is going to be a good analog for the winter, there will be some special things that happen in the Summer. I'm not saying Pass Christian has to deal with another Camille, but I've always taken that event to be triggered by a strong MJO wave, probably stuck in phase 1/2 in August given the cold SE / warm Plains & West August look that year which is identical to the MJO composites for August. Given that it looks pretty cold in the areas that were pretty hot in August 1969, I'm inclined to think the MJO timing is off from 1969 if nothing else (No MJO data exists before 1974 though). Sometimes the MJO wavelength changes, so it's hard to say what will happen by Fall/Winter. The six El Ninos with major hurricanes hitting the US all seem to have a common characteristic - slow, but potent MJO progression (1941, 1957, 1965, 1969, 2004, 2018). I don't have a good read on Fall/Winter yet. If the NAO stays negative into Fall, it starts off as a cold signal in the SW in September, but then migrates to becoming a cold signal for the East (especially the SE in November). I don't have a La Nina or El Nino for winter, I think its a cold Nino 3/1.2, with an average Nino 3.4 and a warm Nino 4. The NAO was pretty negative in May-Aug in 2012 and 2016 though, so it may not mean too much for US cold. My hunch is the winter will be generally warm on a day to day basis, but most places in the US will see 2-3 weeks of near record cold, and end up near to below average against long-term highs. We had a cold June here, which is a strong indicator of a cold winter in the last 100 years (12/19 winters since 1931 below average when June high is 2F or more below 1931-2018 average). There is no period since the 1890s to my knowledge where the Northern Plains and Montana had four severely cold winters in a row - so you have to bet against that since they had three from 2016-2018. The South won't be severely cold without a very positive PDO or very -NAO all winter. The PDO currently looks screwed up again, with a lot of warmth in the Gulf of Alaska (+PDO) but also east of Japan (-PDO). So it is on the NAO probably for the NE.

The subsurface data looks like it will shift above the 2017 baseline now. At this point in 2017, warmth in Nino 3.4 was rapidly fading as cold emerged from below the surface. Things look pretty different in at least the western part of Nino 3.4 this year so far. That blob of warmth by 160W is pretty deep now. There is a fair amount of cold to surface east of 120W which will keep Nino 1.2 and Nino 3 cool for a while. I'm on board with very slow cooling through Fall in Nino 3.4.

This is way over done isn't it? Cold everywhere? If you look at the month to month progressive for US temps, there is no variation at all between some months. I think the data got messed up somehow. The August part of the forecast looks fine, then it dramatically goes colder. I think it's probably because the subsurface data isn't loading. Anyway, the subsurface for 100-180W was +0.14 in July. Still fairly similar to 2017. I was playing around with what the CFS was showing on 7/31, and it looked like a blend west based El Ninos and east-based La Ninas / cold Neutrals.

New Canadian Model is in on Tropical Tidbits, but I think something is wrong with the input/output. The site has the entire Northern Hemisphere (save by Alaska) filled with colder than normal waters.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03JUL2019 21.8-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.7 0.9 10JUL2019 21.7-0.2 25.9 0.1 27.7 0.4 29.7 0.9 17JUL2019 21.3-0.3 25.6 0.0 27.4 0.2 29.7 0.9 24JUL2019 21.1-0.2 25.5 0.0 27.6 0.4 29.8 1.0 Still hanging on to a lot of warmth West. Nino 3.4 will be around 27.65C in July. That is warmer than the July readings for 2017, which had to fall very sharply to become a La Nina. 05JUL2017 21.7-0.3 26.1 0.2 28.0 0.6 29.4 0.6 12JUL2017 21.8 0.0 26.1 0.4 27.8 0.5 29.3 0.5 19JUL2017 21.4-0.1 25.7 0.2 27.6 0.4 29.2 0.4 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 July was similar to 2017. To get to a La Nina from a warmer start in July, August will need a sharper drop than in 2017. 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 23AUG2017 19.6-1.0 24.6-0.4 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.2 30AUG2017 20.3-0.2 24.5-0.4 26.5-0.2 28.8 0.2 If the -NAO continues in August, that is a strong cold signal in Montana, and a strong warm signal for Texas. Nino 3.4 warmth in August (+0.4 or so against the base CPC uses in July) is a wet signal in the Rockies and a cold signal in the Great Lakes/Midwest. I had the middle of the US cold in August using my Summer analog blend from May, 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015, with both coasts warmer - that doesn't seem crazy. Going into winter, it looks like the PDO base state will be pretty positive (+1.0 or so) for March-August, but Nino 1.2 may end up colder than average in October. That's fairly unusually historically and has some implications for what the PDO will do. I think the PDO stays positive, but the core of the warmth in the Gulf of Alaska moves.

I'm not a huge fan of 2013 as an analog. People should go look at how hot June 2013 was in the West - and then it got colder. Kind of the opposite this year. I don't consider 2013-14 a La Nina, but it certainly had a month or two that flirted with La Nina territory, and Nino 3/Nino 1.2 were much colder by now in 2013. Also, 2013 had a relatively high min for sea-ice extent in September, which doesn't look like this year.

Some recent warm (Eastern) winter years like 2012 and 2015 had pretty big -NAO periods in MJJ on the monthly data - 2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 0.47 -0.91 -2.53 -1.32 -0.98 -0.59 -2.06 -0.58 0.17 2013 0.35 -0.45 -1.61 0.69 0.57 0.52 0.67 0.97 0.24 -1.28 0.90 0.95 2014 0.29 1.34 0.80 0.31 -0.92 -0.97 0.18 -1.68 1.62 -1.27 0.68 1.86 2015 1.79 1.32 1.45 0.73 0.15 -0.07 -3.18 -0.76 -0.65 0.44 1.74 2.24 2016 0.12 1.58 0.73 0.38 -0.77 -0.43 -1.76 -1.65 0.61 0.41 -0.16 0.48 2017 0.48 1.00 0.74 1.73 -1.91 0.05 1.26 -1.10 -0.61 0.19 -0.00 0.88 2018 1.44 1.58 -0.93 1.24 2.12 1.09 1.39 1.97 1.67 0.93 -0.11 0.61 2019 0.59 0.29 1.23 0.47 -2.62 -1.09

When I say "harder than last year", I base that off the fact there is no low-solar Neutral year since 1952-53. The closest, arguably are 2016-17, 2012-13, and 2003-04 in the last 20 years, but the 2016-17 had a warm Nino 1.2 which doesn't look likely at the moment, and the others had solar activity. I think you could see a winter with weak and erratic tropical forcing - so then the question becomes what takes over? The PDO is positive but it still kind of screwed up and not likely to get to 2014-15 levels (+2.07 for Nov-Apr) which is strongly correlated with cold in the SE US. I tend to align observed US weather with global oscillations in the tropics to "match" initial conditions. Summer is going as I expected more or less - I thought some Eastern areas of the US would be +3 to +5 in July, after a fairly cold June nationally, and I had the West cold in July (although not where I am - had us warm). May-July -NAO is a weak warm signal in Fall for the West and NE. Will be interesting to see if the MJO cooperates. Last Fall, we had a very warm September and then a very cold Oct-Nov in the SW. But you can see that is unlikely this year, at least in Arizona where the -NAO in MJJ is a big deal for Fall.