raindancewx

To be honest, while I don't expect a La Nina to be the "classified state" for the winter, it probably will be close enough in the eastern zones that I do plan on using some La Nina analogs in my winter blend. The La Nina winters after El Nino winters tend to be wetter in the SW as a composite too, for what it is worth. IRI was still mentioning warm neutral / El Nino as possibilities for this winter based on the dynamical and statistical models as recently as this week - which I think is a bit insane. I was playing around with re-calibrating the subsurface color scheme from CPC, since they added in a light blue/orange for -0.5 to +0.5. If you make the scale the same for 2017 and 2019 for September 10 both years, it's a lot clearer that there is just less subsurface coolness at the moment compared to 2017, and more warmth too. I've been looking at 1953/2009 (much warmer anomalies Nino 4 than Nino 1.2) at the solar minimum in a blend with some kind of combination of 1983, 1995 (positive PDO La Ninas after El Ninos), with 1992/2018 thrown in to fix a couple other issues with the blend. Still working on the weighting, but it is probably those six years that I'll use for winter.

MJO looks like it will reach phase 1 around 10/1. That is very similar to last year. September looks a lot like a blend of 1995, 1953 and 2018 at the moment.

Want to see how September finishes up here, but I'm looking real hard at 1953-54, 1983-84, 1992-93, 1995-96, 2009-2010, 2018-19 as the winter blend. Extra weight on 2009 and 1995 in all likelihood. Snow would be pretty prolific for the interior South, NE, Ohio Valley and maybe the east slopes of the Rockies. Below average north and west of NM/CO generally.

I think this is a fairly cold winter for a lot of the US, but not necessarily a common pattern. Most of the blends I've been playing with have much of the country cold except for AZ, CA, and the Great Lakes / Northern Plains. Don't think it's a particularly wet winter for the four corner states. Have to keep looking at stuff though. I'll put out my outlook by 10/10.

More cooling this week, especially in Nino 1.2 and Nino 3 where the subsurface is very cold. Still warmer than 2017 overall. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 14AUG2019 20.0-0.7 24.7-0.3 27.0 0.1 29.5 0.8 21AUG2019 20.3-0.3 24.7-0.3 26.8 0.0 29.5 0.8 28AUG2019 20.2-0.4 24.6-0.3 26.5-0.2 29.2 0.6 04SEP2019 19.8-0.6 24.9 0.0 26.6-0.2 29.1 0.5 11SEP2019 19.1-1.3 24.4-0.5 26.4-0.3 29.0 0.3 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 23AUG2017 19.6-1.0 24.6-0.4 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.2 30AUG2017 20.3-0.2 24.5-0.4 26.5-0.2 28.8 0.2 06SEP2017 20.4-0.1 24.3-0.6 26.2-0.6 28.7 0.1 13SEP2017 19.7-0.7 24.0-0.9 26.1-0.6 28.7 0.0 I'm working on my winter outlook. Will link to it in a month or so. My hunch is we're nearing the minimal depatures for Nino 1.2, probably -1 to -1.5 in Sept or Oct, and then it warms up relatively speaking. Nino 3 sees a later, but less pronounced minimum in October/November. Nino 3.4 doesn't get as cold, relatively, but remains fairly steady for a longer period. Nino 4 may briefly go negative against its long-term averages if the cold from the east washes west, but I don't think it lasts, and you'll see a rebound.

Not really seeing any reason for Nino 4 to cool off given how the subsurface looks. The Nino 3 should remain quite cold, with Nino 3.4 in between. Nino 1.2 looks like it may warm up some going forward. Less cold than in previous months underneath the surface in Nino 1.2

I'm in the cold-neutral camp myself. I don't think the tendency to be warmer but kind of similar looking to 2017 is going to change much. Blending warm Nino 4 years (El Ninos) with cold Nino 1.2/3 years seems to be matching my Summer weather. I do think Nino 3 is probably going to be essentially La Nina-ish for several months. It's hard to find big -SOI September years that are La Nina years in winter. Since Nino 3.4 was only 25.7C or so in 2017-18 (-0.8C v. 1951-2010), running 0.3-0.5 above it as we seem to be in Nino 3.4 is a cold Neutral. 2012-13 and 2013-14 were both in the 26-26.5C zone, near La Nina, not quite. 2012-13 was actually pretty cold here in the SW, but dry while 2013-14 was warm/dry. The 26.0-26.5C zone for Nino 3.4 seems to produce pretty wildly different outcomes depending on the other factors.

The Jamstec has an El Nino for winter, but the surface is fairly cold right now, as is the subsurface. Still a lot of warmth to come in at least Nino 4 though.

Tentatively looking at a US temperature pattern for winter that is a blend of 1953-54, 1983-84 (x2), 1995-96, 2009-10 (x2), 2017-18. Something like 2004, 2013, 2004, 1995 for precipitation. Idea is to make the West a bit wetter than the blend above since it isn't warm enough for Nino 4 probably. These aren't my forecast years, but August/September heat has narrowed down which SST combos are linking correctly with US weather. I should point out, the SOI in September is -16 or so, our region rarely has terrible winters after a big -SOI in September. SOI looks pretty negative through 9/17, I'm expecting it to be under -4 at least.

My hunch for the winter is that the SE will do well for some snow events, particularly in the interior. I think you'll have some unusual methods of entry for cold air into the US along with a strong subtropical jet, like in an El Nino, but it will be oriented more to come into the US via NM and TX rather than California. I haven't looked into it too much yet though. It's pretty hard to find any real dud winters out here after a big -SOI in September actually. I think Montana and the Dakotas are kind of a due for a break, three very harsh winters up there.

Latest European run has warmed a bit. I drew in yellow what I expect in Nino 3.4. At this point in recent years, the Euro September Nino 3.4 forecasts were pretty good. The SOI has been very negative in September so far, which means we should avoid La Nina conditions at least. Very hard to get below a -5 or -10 SOI in September and then a La Nina the following winter. The SOI should remain predominantly negative through at least 9/17. These are the Septembers since 1931 with a -4 to -12 SOI...it is actually currently at -16 for 9/1-9/10. The 1946 and 1932 ENSO winters were preceded by SOI Septembers under -8 and both were cold Neutrals, but almost all the others are El Ninos. Sept SOI 1976 -12.4 1951 -11.2 1987 -10.6 1969 -10.0 1957 -9.4 1939 -8.8 1977 -8.8 2018 -8.5 1932 -8.3 1941 -7.7 1990 -7.3 2002 -7.3 1948 -7.1 1993 -7.0 2014 -6.6 1934 -5.9 1963 -5.9 1980 -4.7 1986 -4.7 2006 -4.6

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07AUG2019 20.3-0.6 25.3 0.1 27.3 0.4 29.6 0.9 14AUG2019 20.0-0.7 24.7-0.3 27.0 0.1 29.5 0.8 21AUG2019 20.3-0.3 24.7-0.3 26.8 0.0 29.5 0.8 28AUG2019 20.2-0.4 24.6-0.3 26.5-0.2 29.2 0.6 04SEP2019 19.8-0.6 24.9 0.0 26.6-0.2 29.1 0.5 Nino 3 warmed up a bit this week. Well behind 2017 for cold at this point, except in Nino 1.2 which is volatile. 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 23AUG2017 19.6-1.0 24.6-0.4 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.2 30AUG2017 20.3-0.2 24.5-0.4 26.5-0.2 28.8 0.2 06SEP2017 20.4-0.1 24.3-0.6 26.2-0.6 28.7 0.1 CFS & Canadian have essentially opposite winter forecasts right now, with the CFS warm almost everywhere for SSTs and the new Canadian cold almost everywhere. The Weatherbell guys like a blend of 2013-14/2014-15 or 2013-14 (x3), 2014-15, 2018-19. That gives you a cold eastern tropical Pacific, with a warm western tropical Pacific. I have some issues with it as a blend, but it does look close to current SSTs. The West is generally wetter in winters after El Ninos for one. The sea ice was also a lot higher in 2013/2014 at the minimum extent in September. Also think Nino 4 will be a lot warmer than that blend, but we'll see. The ECMWF Nino 3.4 Sept 1 forecast updated should be out any day now, and the Jamstec is likely later in the week too.

Most of the maps you find from DMI and others show 1952 was the minimum extent of the sea ice in the prior warm AMO period, and then there was a flat period and something of a recovery until the recent downturn. Researchers think there could be a 60-year pattern to the melting which is consistent with 2012 being so hard to beat, just like 1952 was in it its era. Not suggesting we aren't seeing more warming or melting, just that the warming doesn't really change the established cyclical patterns...it just warms them up. These guys looked at fish migration patterns and tree data as well as weather data. https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/38582/4/Parker222015JGEESI16694.pdf

Closest matches for Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4 SSTs, for June, July, Aug are 1980, 1990, 1994, 2004, 2017, 2018. ONI was +0.3 for JJA, with only a +0.03C reading for August 2019 in Nino 3.4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2019 6 28.19 27.65 0.54 2019 7 27.65 27.26 0.39 2019 8 26.94 26.91 0.03 Compared to 1951-2010, 26.94C is actually +0.3C in Nino 3.4. The Nino 4 reading for August is most similar to El Ninos still. 1992 is very close for Nino 3.4 in Jun, Jul, Aug - top match since 1950. The 1991-92 El Nino lasted pretty late into 1992, before fading to a Neutral briefly in 1992-93 and the going to an El Nino in early 1993. 1992 28.30 27.51 26.91 2019 28.19 27.66 26.94 Look at your closest Nino 4 matches though - for Jun-Aug. Nino 4 Jun Jul Aug 1987 29.37 29.38 29.38 1991 29.35 29.34 29.26 1994 29.23 29.40 29.50 1997 29.23 29.37 29.29 2002 29.61 29.52 29.43 2015 29.88 29.78 29.77 2019 29.58 29.66 29.44 My Summer Analogs were 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015. Not a terrible blend overall for the oceans or US high temps by month (cool Jun / hot west coast, then hot July/cool West coast, hot Aug, cold Northern Plains was the idea and more or less what happened). Nino 4 stayed even warmer than I had it, but Nino 3 / Nino 1.2 really cooled off a lot in August, although against 1951-2010 means, Nino 3 is still only -0.06C in August 2019. Nino 4 Jun Jul Aug 1966 28.93 28.98 28.58 1966 28.93 28.98 28.58 1987 29.37 29.38 29.38 1992 29.24 29.21 28.93 1993 29.01 28.97 28.92 2015 29.88 29.78 29.77 Mean 29.23 29.22 29.03 2019 29.58 29.66 29.44 Nino 3.4 Jun Jul Aug 1966 27.64 27.33 26.48 1966 27.64 27.33 26.48 1987 28.65 28.59 28.42 1992 28.30 27.51 26.91 1993 28.08 27.52 26.99 2015 28.90 28.75 28.79 Mean 28.20 27.84 27.35 2019 28.19 27.66 26.94 Nino 3 Jun Jul Aug 1966 25.89 25.26 24.35 1966 25.89 25.26 24.35 1987 27.48 26.92 26.57 1992 27.17 25.75 25.03 1993 27.06 26.05 25.36 2015 28.07 27.66 27.21 Mean 26.93 26.15 25.48 2019 26.82 25.71 24.83 Nino 1.2 Jun Jul Aug 1966 21.57 20.67 19.83 1966 21.57 20.67 19.83 1987 24.10 22.98 21.82 1992 23.98 21.89 20.87 1993 24.16 22.66 21.57 2015 25.32 24.50 22.66 Mean 23.45 22.23 21.10 2019 22.78 21.27 20.20

Getting close again...but Nino 3.4 fell of a cliff in Sept 2017 and had colder Nino 4 / subsurface conditions by now. We will see. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07AUG2019 20.3-0.6 25.3 0.1 27.3 0.4 29.6 0.9 14AUG2019 20.0-0.7 24.7-0.3 27.0 0.1 29.5 0.8 21AUG2019 20.3-0.3 24.7-0.3 26.8 0.0 29.5 0.8 28AUG2019 20.2-0.4 24.6-0.3 26.5-0.2 29.2 0.6 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 23AUG2017 19.6-1.0 24.6-0.4 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.2 30AUG2017 20.3-0.2 24.5-0.4 26.5-0.2 28.8 0.2 06SEP2017 20.4-0.1 24.3-0.6 26.2-0.6 28.7 0.1 13SEP2017 19.7-0.7 24.0-0.9 26.1-0.6 28.7 0.0 20SEP2017 19.3-1.1 23.9-1.0 26.3-0.4 28.7 0.0 27SEP2017 19.5-1.0 24.4-0.5 26.5-0.2 28.4-0.2

Warmer than the 2017 La Nina through August, by around 0.4C according to the ECMWF. New forecast for September should be out soon. Nino 3 was near La Nina conditions but still Neutral, with Nino 1.2 near -1.0C for August on the ECMWF graphs. Nino 4 remained quite warm, around +0.8C warmer than in 2017 in August. To me, that's the difference between a La Nina winter and a Neutral winter, but we'll see.

The subsurface data came in for August for 100-180W: -0.08, after being positive in July. Closest years for Jun-Aug, in order, are 2000, 2017, 2008, 2003, 1987, 1996. 2017 should continue to fall off as a close match going forward, as the subsurface was much colder by August. 100-180W Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2019 0.59 0.94 1.19 0.41 0.07 0.24 0.13 -0.08 2000 -1.28 -0.91 -0.64 -0.31 -0.18 0.08 0.03 0.00 2017 0.01 0.15 0.22 0.06 0.30 0.22 0.16 -0.40 2008 -1.50 -1.20 -0.45 0.02 0.17 0.38 0.42 -0.15 2003 0.27 -0.11 -0.06 -0.49 -0.85 0.13 0.53 0.03 1987 1.22 0.17 0.60 0.31 0.58 0.37 -0.10 0.20 1996 -0.29 -0.12 0.05 0.01 -0.16 0.17 -0.18 -0.35 Something like this is pretty close. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt 100-180W Jun Jul Aug 2000 0.08 0.03 0.00 2008 0.38 0.42 -0.15 2000 0.08 0.03 0.00 2008 0.38 0.42 -0.15 2000 0.08 0.03 0.00 Mean 0.20 0.19 -0.06 2019 0.24 0.13 -0.08 The surface was still borderline El Nino in August for Nino 3.4, although Nino 3 is pretty cold now. Subsurface isn't super-strongly predictive for Nino 3.4 in DJF, in August, but I get 26.325C for Nino 3.4 in DJF using the Aug subsurface, and if you hindcast for 1979-2018, it should be within 0.7C of that 80% of the time - I'd call 27.0C and above an El Nino, and 26.0C or less a La Nina. The average error for the last 10-years is 0.4C from what the formula projects. Closest SOI matches to Jun-Aug since 1931 include 1992 and 2004. Some very cold and snowy winters in that list for me, but should change a lot in Fall/Winter. SOI Jun Jul Aug 1946 -8.8 -9.5 -4.0 1949 -10.9 -1.6 -4.0 1959 -5.3 -4.0 -4.0 1963 -10.2 -2.2 -2.8 1992 -11.9 -6.5 0.8 2004 -13.0 -6.4 -6.7 2019 -10.0 -5.9 -3.1 1959/1992/2004 as a blend is -10.1/-5.6/-3.3 - and almost exact match for this year. If you warmed it up 0.1C or so everywhere...not bad as a match for something purely SOI derived.

My methods aren't that radical, I just blend in the actual weather conditions in the US with the background climate signals and run it all forward instead of using only weather or only background signals. Similar weather over a long period is usually an indicator of similar MJO tendencies if nothing else. Florida was hit by a lot of hurricanes in 2004, and the SST pattern globally has been fairly similar to late Summer 2004. It probably won't last. A lot of years with a sudden NAO flip in mid-Summer also tend to see high Atlantic hurricane activity, and the NAO has been neutral/positive of late after the extended negative period. I mentioned 1992 because the path is kind of like Andrew last I looked on the European, but also the 2004 and 1964 storms. That run due west into Florida is fairly rare if you look at historical tracks, were it to verify - it is a hint.

Kind of leaning toward this blend for Fall 2019 analogs. Not going to do a Fall forecast, my Summer analogs look fine for September still. I suspect I'll put in another low solar year and switch out 1992 or 2013 for winter, but we'll see. The hurricane set to hit Florida from the east is a good omen for 1992/2004 having likeness to this year.

You can play it both ways - Nino 1.2 and Nino 3 have warmed in recent days. Dorian has me looking at 1964...because of Dora. But it isn't similar at all. There is still a lot of warmth to be overcome in the Tropical Pacific. I have issues with 2013, but it the oceans are starting to look more like 2013 than prior months did. 2004/2013 with lower solar and some other adjustments is getting close to the look of recent months. The July Jamstec had showed a cold Nino 3/3.4 in Sept-Nov burning off later. There is a lot of cool and warm subsurface water to swing Nino 3.4 around like a yo-yo for a while.

The 8/15-8/25 average high in Albuquerque was 94.3F - tied with 2007 as the hottest since 1931 for that period. 1973 and 1948 are very close too. August probably won't quite reach the intensity of the heat of 2011, the record here, but we're pretty close - I think 92.8F now, and 2011 finished at 93.8F. Of course...2011 was a good winter here, and 1973, 1948, and 2007 were all decent to great too. I have a model that looks at snow in the SW, and the hot dry Summers are not actually the ones that precede the worst winters typically. It is typically the hot/wet winters that do, like 2017. The cold June to warm August transition has happened in decent winters like 2009 and 2000. If anything, our hottest Augusts tend to precede one very cold winter month here. Pretty sure Roswell hit 109F the other day, which is stupid hot for this late in the year, with some elevation.

Slow cooling in Nino 3.4 and 4 over the past month. August subsurface for 100-180W in the tropical pacific looks slightly negative. The NAO has also come up recently to near neutral after spending mid-April to a few days ago in deep, consistent negative values. The PDO also looks less canonically positive than a few days ago as the waters off Alaska cool some. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 1.2 warming like the weeklies do recently, with Nino 4 cooling off to +0.4 int he days after this time frame ended (centered on 8/21). Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 24JUL2019 21.1-0.2 25.5 0.0 27.6 0.4 29.8 1.0 31JUL2019 20.6-0.5 25.2-0.2 27.5 0.5 29.8 1.0 07AUG2019 20.3-0.6 25.3 0.1 27.3 0.4 29.6 0.9 14AUG2019 20.0-0.7 24.7-0.3 27.0 0.1 29.5 0.8 21AUG2019 20.3-0.3 24.7-0.3 26.8 0.0 29.5 0.8 27JUL2016 21.3 0.1 24.8-0.6 26.6-0.5 29.0 0.2 03AUG2016 21.5 0.5 24.7-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 10AUG2016 21.0 0.1 24.5-0.7 26.3-0.6 28.6-0.1 17AUG2016 21.1 0.5 24.5-0.5 26.3-0.5 28.7 0.0 24AUG2016 20.8 0.2 24.4-0.5 26.2-0.6 28.6-0.1 26JUL2017 21.3 0.0 25.5 0.1 27.1 0.0 28.9 0.2 02AUG2017 20.9-0.1 25.4 0.1 27.2 0.2 28.9 0.2 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 23AUG2017 19.6-1.0 24.6-0.4 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.2 25JUL2018 21.1-0.3 25.8 0.3 27.4 0.3 29.0 0.3 01AUG2018 21.2 0.1 25.3 0.0 27.1 0.1 29.1 0.4 08AUG2018 20.8-0.1 25.1-0.1 27.1 0.2 29.2 0.5 15AUG2018 20.9 0.2 25.4 0.4 27.3 0.4 29.5 0.8 22AUG2018 20.4-0.2 25.1 0.1 27.1 0.3 29.0 0.4

In Albuquerque, we're going to be at six days with a high of 95F or hotter in the 8/15-9/30 period by the end of tomorrow. That's pretty rare since 1931. The composite of the six years to have that much heat late include two years after an El Nino - 1983, 1973, and also 1945, 1948, 1979 and 2011. Composite looks like this - 1936 was a year with major heat waves in the US during Summer, and had the warm pool off Alaska with a cold Nino 1.2 - probably one of the better matches to this year pre-1950, but way too cold in Nino 4. August is starting to finally move away from Nino 3.4 warmth but it has been pretty slow.

The relationship between the NAO monthly values in May-April and Sept-Mar as a blend tends to be pretty predictive for what it will do in winter, going by the past 20 years. May-Apr and Sept-Mar last year was near identical to 1975 for the NAO, and then the NAO was positive, but not extremely so, like in 1975. August -NAO also tends to precede cold Decembers in the East, if Nino 4 warmth (currently near record warmth) doesn't over-rule it (stronger correlation for Nino 4 the closer you get to Dec). Should be a very difficult winter to forecast actually. I lean toward the US being warm in December, with a patch of near average in the South from NC to AZ, but we'll see.

The scale is different in 2019, but it looks to me like the coolness in Nino 1.2/3 will peak in Fall, and then warm. The warmth in Nino 3.4/4 looks like it it will persist in fall, and then cool.