raindancewx

CPC has ONI at +0.1 for ASO. They revised September warmer in the raw data. October came in +0.44C against their baseline. Against 1951-2010 means, it would be +0.69C, and it will probably be revised warmer next month anyway. Six weeks above 27.0C is an El Nino to me at this time of year. The 27.19C for October is still warmer than October 2014, even though the weeklies implied 27.3C Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 For the SOI stuff, you can look at the BOM data base and see if it has merit yourself. https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt Blizzard of 1993 was around 3/13 right? That's 31+28+13 days into 1993, i.e. 72 days. Here is the SOI in late Feb / early Mar 1993: 1993 61 1015.53 1008.30 14.95 1993 62 1013.67 1009.25 1.51 1993 63 1010.83 1008.50 -8.55 1993 64 1010.61 1008.80 -10.99 That 20+ point drop is about 10-days ahead of the blizzard. The extremely powerful storm this past March had a lesser drop, but it was there: 2019 60 1014.11 1009.00 4.79 2019 61 1012.17 1008.75 -3.30 2019 62 1012.02 1009.00 -5.22 This is the Perfect Storm time frame - (365 = Dec 31, -31 for Dec, -30 for Nov, -3 for Oct, -10 for the SOI lead time, i.e. 365-74 = 291?) 1991 290 1011.85 1012.15 -20.57 1991 291 1011.32 1011.90 -22.34 1991 292 1008.97 1011.55 -35.24 The system (closed low last I looked) coming into the SW this week ties in with the most recent drop. I generally look for a big storm over the SW in 10-days after a big SOI crash occurs in a short period (1-2 days) in El Ninos. But in non-El Ninos it is less reliable for the SW, and the reliability does seem peak from mid-Nov to mid-Apr, it has no use in Summer. 29 Oct 2019 1011.22 1010.05 -11.09 -4.59 -6.94 28 Oct 2019 1011.75 1010.10 -8.00 -4.19 -6.79 27 Oct 2019 1012.01 1008.90 1.42 -3.98 -6.5

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 4 Nov 2019 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 -4.51 -7.07 3 Nov 2019 1010.91 1009.65 -10.31 -4.05 -6.62 2 Nov 2019 1011.56 1009.15 -2.99 -4.37 -6.53 1 Nov 2019 1011.89 1008.60 2.61 -4.95 -6.6 Those 20 pt, single day SOI drops are trouble historically. Need to watch for a big time storm mid-month.

I'm aware that October 1948 is nothing like October 2019. Worth noting, the 135-165W, 30-60N zone was not warm in October like it now. It developed later. That's why that area of warmth is interesting to me, since it is west of 2013 - when it exists in 1948-49, even with the PDO, AMO, Solar, ENSO, IOD, and global SSTs way different, it still went to the pattern observed in October. The Oct 2019/Dec-Feb 1948-49 pattern only exists when that warmth is pronounced in the zone I listed. In 2013-14, you had more success pushing the heat out of the SE US compared to this year. The magnitude of the cold/heat in 2013 is also not really comparable if you use the same scale. A lot of states in the West reported their coldest ever October in 2013, with a lot of states in the South reporting top five hottest ever for October. I'm not trying to rain on parades, but I am seeing a lot of what happened last year, when people kept saying "2002" was similar to Fall, even though the October heat in the East and cold push were both more severe than in 2002.

QBO is still positive in October: +7.27 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data My analog blend has it at slightly below 0 for Dec-Feb, -6.77 or so. That's probably about right. Last year, the QBO tracked pretty similarly to 1994-95. No reason to expect a radical break from 1995 at this point. Should cross into negative territory on the monthly data in December or January. Something like 0-6 in Nov, -2 to +2 in Dec, -6 to 0 in Jan, -10 to -2 in Feb. 1995 8.38 8.01 8.79 11.79 14.92 15.62 11.74 9.53 6.98 3.43 -0.77 -4.57 1996 -5.79 -6.9 -9.92 -11.08 -14.88 -17.03 -23.93 -25.85 -26.02 -23.4 -18.08 -9.86 2019 9.02 9.25 11.82 13.36 14.59 14.36 10.96 9.97 8.25 7.27 -999 -999

California largely ended its drought from the 2015-16 El Nino favoring the North for snow, and then the 2016-17 La Nina producing a lot of storminess in Nov/Jan/Apr throughout the SW. The 2018-19 winter was better than 2016-17 in the SW for snow-pack, but not due to moisture - it just didn't melt quickly because it was far colder in Spring.

One thing that concerns me this winter is that record cold in the orientation that occurred in October 2019 has occurred with the same blotch of warm waters in the Pacific in previous winters. I'm defining this blob as 150-180W, 30-60N, as opposed to 2013-14, which was 135-165W, 30-60N. See the heat shooting up to Ohio with the cold over Montana and the whole west cold? Look at this. 30-60N, 150-180W right? Both cases. Both periods, record cord in the West (cooler ring by Western North America around the warmth, with cold south of the equator too.) That 2013-14 setup was east of this year, and so the cold was centered east. The distance from where the cold is centered and where the blobs are centered is about 15-20 degrees E-W. So it makes sense that the blob in 2013-14 would feature severe cold in the Lakes, while the current one has focused more on Montana and Wyoming. This all assumes these warm patches matter, and that if they do, the current one will persist.

I keep seeing people referencing 2013...but the October pattern was far more amplified than that year. 2018 is not too far off in the East though for October. I saw this elsewhere:

Looks like the European was caught with its pants down in Nino 4 this month. Whole plume for Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 will likely shift up a bit this month. Nino 3.4 is likely about 27.3C for October - the Nino zone data for October will arrive this week. A 27.3C October is +0.55C on the CPC standard, but +0.8C against 1951-2010. CPC tends to "adjust" data for a month or two after it is in. Even so, ONI for Aug-Oct should be 26.97C or so, and the CPC base for that period is 26.82C, so it's back to +0.15C. The 1951-2010 average is 26.56C - so +0.42C - nearly back to El Nino already, more consistent with the SOI, which is also nearly El Nino for Aug-Oct (-7.03 for Aug-Oct).

I have mechanisms for estimating "snow ratios" in the West when I do my analogs, and yes, the general idea is relatively dry snow occurring fairly often. Think 22:1 ratios instead of 17:1 if 17:1 was your average.

It's pretty likely that the Canadian Model is really just outputting information and spatial information for coordinates. So it is up to the vendor to determine the basis for the anomaly with the raw information. Just another reason to be wary of models. Same reason all the different SST data has slightly different baselines.

Probably (Definitely?) won't get a 968 mb low out of it this time, but October was wetter than September again in Albuquerque. That has always preceded measurable precipitation in October back to 1931 (37/37 cases), including last year. Odds are always much better for a big wet March when October is wetter than September.

We've pulled ahead of the late/fake El Ninos now too. October looks nothing like 2012 for instance. Weaker than last year. North Pacific still neutral for the PDO zone. That cold water by Peru in October tends to rot away the warmth right along the coast of West Canada, as we've seen. Also, sunspots for the year ending October are down to 4.2 - still lower than the comparable time in the last cycle (year ending Oct 2008). The 12-month low last cycle was 2.2. Whether we go lower than that or not, I'd say its 50/50 we hit the 12-month low point of this cycle in the next six months.

My hunch is the difference between this winter and last winter is that much drier air is coming into the Southwest. If there is enough of it that spills East, there will be some efficient snow producing events fairly far south, maybe from what the local NWS calls "wet bulb magic", although not many, probably less than two. We've had dewpoints in the -10s here for days now. It's ridiculous. Places are toward Arizona are already doing their winter thing, 65F in the day, 15F at night. My statistical methods show that the colder Albuquerque gets in October (lowest low temp) the more lows of 32F or less we have - i.e. the more dry air, without excessive heat. This year, even factoring in the urban heat island and background warming of Earth, I get...109 lows of 32F or less from Oct-May, +/- 24 at around 95% confidence based on the last century (currently at 7 - two weeks ahead of last year, when we had 97). The 30-year average, to last year, is 92. Dry air can be good to have around in winter if it isn't going to be super cold.

Coldest October here since 1986 - 55.4F, around 2.5F below the past 100 years. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt I actually couldn't get a good match on the Aug/Sept/Oct subsurface data this time - it kind of looks a blend of 1991 (big major warm up below the surface in October), but colder. Something like 1991, 1992, 1993 as a blend is kind of close, but still not great, for how it is behaving. The issue with the subsurface matching is that the subsurface was slightly cold in August, neutral (exactly 0) in September, and then very warm in October - that doesn't really exist in the data in a single year. You have to blend like crazy to get it. Subsurface data came in at +0.7 for 100-180W in October. That's always translated to an official El Nino since the subsurface data has been available in 1979. It's below last year, when the subsurface was +1.58 in October. The subsurface in October 2014 and other actual El Ninos was somewhat cooler than in October 2019. If you plug in +0.7 along the line, it implies a 27.1C El Nino, give or take about 0.6C, around 80% certainty (32/40) for the last 40 years.

Not really. Most of the recent El Ninos have been good for at least parts of California for moisture. Without looking, I think maybe 2014 and 2002 are the exceptions since 1997.

I had 2009 as my top weighted analog this winter (3/10 of my blend), so its nice to see relatively close highs and snow in Stapleton. The cold Junes / warm late Summer / cold October is pretty interesting for NM and CO, it's not something that shows up a lot in the records. It seems to tie into year that have blocking but also "stuck" MJO patterns in the last 40 years. This winter seems like it could feature a lot of drier than normal snow across the West. I really don't have a strong precip signal in the data I look at, but snow still looks average to above average generally.

Cold mornings have arrived in greater frequency than my analogs depicted. Blending year with coldest October low is pretty predictive for number of lows <=32F here for the total of <=32F nights: I get 109, +/-24 using the last 30-years for the confidence interval, and 109, +/-27 using the last 90-years. Either way, anything above 118 would be most in lifetime. We finished with 97 last year, but only through 11/15. Looks like like we'll be at seven through 11/1.

The new Canadian run looks a bit more El Nino-y, especially north of the equator. Tropical Tidbits fixed its climatology (baseline for averages) so these maps work again. It has a warm US look. The move toward more precip in the SW is likely an indicator that it is starting to sense the warm Nino 3.4 The model doesn't have any long range seasonal skill at this range for winter. This is last year (warmest where it was coldest on Nov 1, 2018) The October forecast (cold West / warm South) from 9/30 was pretty good. The Oct 31 forecast for November has this - and its not dissimilar to the CFS or my November analogs. A -NAO favors a warm West in November. Most of my top winters are 0-2F above normal in November.

This October finished about 2F colder in Albuquerque than my analogs had it. I think it's going to finish with an average temperature of 55.4F for the city - coldest since 1986 if that is correct. It's a top 10-cold October here for the past 100 years. Also pretty sure that Jan-Oct is now running about 2F colder than in 2018 locally, which is a lot for a 10-month period, when there is only about six degrees of variation on an annual basis for the past 100-years, and that 2F drop is even after a very hot period in late Summer, mid-July to mid-Sept essentially. How did you fair in the local rankings for October in Colorado?

SOI should finish around -5 or -6 for October. 1951 is a top Aug-Oct match, which makes sense given that it looks like October. SOI Aug Sept Oct 2019 -3.1 -12.7 -5.0 1946 -4.0 -13.3 -12.3 1969 -4.0 -10.0 -11.6 1990 -4.4 -7.3 -1.2 1951 -5.2 -11.2 -12.3 1987 -13.1 -10.6 -5.3 1972 -8.2 -14.1 -11.0 1972-73 is essentially the best physically possible pattern for the West, will be watching to see if it remains a strong match into November..

This is pretty similar to what I had. I did go higher in Northern California and some spots in the Southern Plains. Mainly for CA because a big -SOI in September is a strong wet signal for North California, and the SOI was -13 in September.

Since 1950, these are the Octobers with 27.0-27.6 Nino 3.4 monthly readings, since it looks like we finish with Nino 3.4 at 27.3C. Oct 3.4 1951 27.20 1957 27.42 1963 27.36 1969 27.34 1976 27.46 1977 27.35 1986 27.53 1991 27.58 1994 27.47 2003 27.14 2004 27.44 2006 27.41 2009 27.60 2012 26.98 2014 27.16 Of these, 1951 is easily closest to highs across the US. Then 1969 (right in the West but too cold in the South - no help moving the high from Camille?). 2004 and 1994 aren't super far off either (neither is last year, at 27.62C). 1957, 1976, 2006, 2009 are too cold. 1963, 1977, 1991, 2003, 2012, 2014 are kind of opposite, and a lot of the other years are just off in various ways. The El Ninos with the lowest annualized solar activity are 1953-54, 2009-10 and 2018-19 - very different winters, but we'll see. It's probably not great for a cold December in the East that Oct 1963 is relatively opposite of Oct 2019 nationally - I think the MJO must have gotten stuck in a warm phase back then, and Dec 1963 was the second coldest Eastern December since 1950. I think maybe compared to 1963, the MJO is off by 6-weeks, and compared to 2013, it's off by four weeks but we'll see. For highs locally, for June-Oct, 1948 is the closest match since 1931 - very hot July-Sept sandwiched between a cold June & October. I wouldn't even mention this normally, but that year went to ridiculous, stupid cold in the West in January, kind of like the recent pattern...but in January and for a much longer period than the recent cold snap. I'll be watching for that. I sincerely doubt January 1949 will come to fruition. But I keep expecting a more recent year to replace 1948 as the best match to highs and it hasn't happened yet. 1948 keeps building its lead over every other year back to 1931.

You can use this site for now - this is essentially the http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ site, but it is still up and working. http://scacis.rcc-acis.org/

This is why I always argue ENSO events should be defined against a long-term, stable period. I use 1951-2010. CPC adjusts the baseline for El Nino and La Nina every five years, as if there is some law of the universe that says we have to have a 30-40-30 split between El Nino/Neutral/La Nina. I think its pretty likely that we're moving to a state where El Nino is the most likely outcome of the three, even recognizing that the PDO base state has some say in ENSO frequency historically. Also, a lot of the effects that are supposed to be canonical to the three states really have to do with ENSO order more than anything. I think the tendency for the West will be more warm/wet winters generally, but the increasing likelihood of El Nino means that when we do see harsh winters - generally El Ninos after La Ninas - they will be fierce, like 2018.