raindancewx

New CPC baseline for La Nina / El Nino is super warm mid-year. Changes from 1951-2010 averages in Nino 3.4 to 1991-2020 averages by month are below. Jan 26.45 / 26.55 (+0.10) Feb 26.65 / 26.76 (+0.11) Mar 27.13 / 27.29 (+0.16) Apr 27.55 / 27.83 (+0.28) May 27.67 / 27.94 (+0.27) Jun 27.47 / 27.73 (+0.26) Jul 27.04 / 27.29 (+0.25) Aug 26.65 / 26.86 (+0.21) Sep 26.54 / 26.72 (+0.18) Oct 26.50 / 26.72 (+0.22) Nov 26.49 / 26.70 (+0.21) Dec 26.45 / 26.60 (+0.15)

The CFS will probably change dramatically by 2/28 for the March outlook. For now, the simplest blend I could come up with for what it shows is a blend of 1985 & 2020.

The CFS has kind of a classic +WPO temperature pattern for March. I don't think the look below is right though. Will be interesting to see how it changes by 2/28. None of the other teleconnections really favor the pattern shown on the CFS. They aren't very cold West but warm in the East.

That big 970 mb low south of Kamchatka? That's probably a big storm for mid-March. I'm looking for it to pass over NM 3/12-3/16. That time frame has been in the data as a cold and/or snowy period out here since the snow storm since October. Now supported by the Bering Sea Rule. If the South is warm as I suspect it will be, I would watch this period for severe weather. I mentioned it in my Spring Outlook too.

This is way out there, but the Bering Straight Rule supports a pretty major storm over NM, possibly a "Albuquerque Low" for Colorado, around 3/12-3/16.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 Still west-based. The La Nina is still weakening on net too at the surface.

It looks like CPC has been moving to new websites for the 1991-2020 base period for ENSO stuff. I realized this today. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for This is the new site for weekly data. The old one said "8110" Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 Here is the new location for the monthly data: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii January Data: Nino 1.2: 23.59C Nino 3: 25.07C Nino 3.4: 25.55C Nino 4: 27.25C Anyway, top matches to January 2021. February 1965 is actually a pretty similar looking month to February 2021. Of these years, most are split in a warm South/East, cold North/West look for March. That said, March 1965 is stupid cold, and March 2012 is stupid hot nationally. Jan Nino 1.2 Nino 3 Nin 34 Nino 4 Match 2021 23.59 25.07 25.55 27.25 0.00 1955 23.72 24.80 25.61 27.41 0.62 1963 23.72 24.85 25.77 27.45 0.77 1965 23.87 24.70 25.66 27.23 0.78 1967 23.53 24.93 25.88 27.60 0.88 2001 23.94 25.24 25.81 27.43 0.96 2012 24.38 25.09 25.67 27.30 0.98

How much of your total liquid equivalent precipitation would you guys say has fallen as snow up by Denver and Boulder? I was looking at the records here. For 10/1-2/20, over 70% of our precipitation has fallen as snow at the airport. That's kind of nuts since it hasn't been that cold.

One weird thing I'll always remember about this cold-season locally is the combination of snow AND dryness. We haven't really had a wet month here since June. But since September, almost all of our precipitation has been snow in Albuquerque. February 2021: 0.01" rain, 0.42" snow. 0.43" total January 2021: 0.18" snow. 0.18" total December 2020: 0.03" snow. 0.19" rain. 0.22" total November 2020: 0.12" rain. 0.12" total October 2020: 0.24" snow. 0.24" total. 1.19" total for October-February so far. But 0.87" has been snow. It's a pretty weird setup, since none of the months overall have been that cold here.

Billings is warming up now. But they got to -20F compared to average through close to 3/4 of February. Pretty impressive. But in February 2019, they finished -22. Not going to match that in February 2021. Bismarck was in the mid-40s today. A lot of places seem to have beaten their forecast highs today in the middle of the US. Albuquerque hit the mid-60s today. That's usually a sign that some 80s will spill into Texas at sea level. Probably won't work this time. Right now, Maine is actually the place in the US that has had the warmest winter. No one has had a particularly cold winter. The places with the severe cold this month were extremely warm through early February.

Nate Mantua PDO: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO 2020-11-01T00:00:00Z -1.12 2020-12-01T00:00:00Z -0.9 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.16 Still trending down overall. 2019-11-01T00:00:00Z 0.15 2019-12-01T00:00:00Z 0.97 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.23

This is winter so far. Florida is very warm today (mid-80s up to Jacksonville), and there should be some warmth week four of February in the southern/eastern US if CPC is right. After today, 80 of 90 winter days are in. I've been taking some snapshots of how my analog blend has changed compared to observations. The rapidity of the changes are amazing, I'll show it at the end of the month.

I knew this cycle existed when I did my winter forecast in October. You can the severe cold is roughly 45 days cyclically. But the recent snaps have been more severe. My main analog was 2007-08 (Feb 2008) with a 2-week period when the middle third of the US was 7F+ below average in February, and it's still not going to be nearly cold enough for the peak cold of this year, given the 2-week period is maybe 15-20+ below average for a third of the country.

Up to 11.5" in Albuquerque for this cold season to date. Snowiest La Nina since 1988-89. Wouldn't take much more snow to beat 1988-89 by the end of May. Each year with measurable October snow here has had snow the following March.

For anyone interested in comparing to a modern climatology, you can now use a base period of 1991-2020 on one of the ESRL monthly composite sites. I may ask them for a 1961-2020 base period, as that would be my preference. 30-year periods get weird outcomes if you have one or two unusual events at a similar magnitude. Not an issue with 60 year periods.

This might be the coldest seven-day period for February 2021. I'll keep checking it though.

Albuquerque at the airport is up to 10.9 inches of snow through 2/16 for this cold season. Snowiest non-El Nino since 1996-97 already, snowiest La Nina since 1988-89 already. Snowiest overall since 2014-15. My guess is we'll get more snow too.

Personally, still find the October snow cover more impressive. Patterns repeat.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for This site hasn't updated for me in a while. But the weekly data is here - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Nino 1.2: -0.5C Nino 3: -0.9C Nino 3.4: -1.2C Nino 4: -1.2C Still west-based. Subsurface still looks it peaked Halloween. Lower winter peak in January.

The severe cold is just about over now for places like Bismarck, Billings, and the North Central US. It's not going to be 80 degrees tomorrow, but the super cold is going to relax to normal temperatures over the next few days. NAO looks positive the rest of the month. Enjoy your cold rain in the Northeast I guess... Albuquerque is up to 9.3 inches of snow officially at the airport with the snow yesterday. More forecast today. Long-term average is 9.6 inches for October-May.

Need to see the official total today at the airport. My guess is we're very close to normal Oct-May seasonal snow totals in Albuquerque. More snow in the forecast on Monday Night anyway. No reason it can't accumulate given that it is 12 degrees at Noon. The massive temperature drops in 36-hours are pretty memorable this cold season. 96F-->40F 9/7-9/9, 73F-->19F 10/25-10/26, 56F->7F on 2/13-2/14. It is possible we may drop below 7F later tonight too. The cold in the North Central has almost completely pushed their winter mean highs for 2020-21 to near my analog blend. The Northwest has also corrected toward the blend. I'm sure I've lost some areas of the South-Central with the cold blast. But those areas will warm up a lot, and then be much warmer than my main analog for the winter, 2007-2008, late in the month. It's amazing to think the early month warmth is still holding up monthly averages a bit in Montana. On the weekly summary on Weatherbell, it did look like the WPO, EPO, NAO, AO, and PNA were all going to become far less favorable for central/eastern cold later in the month. Will be interesting to see how that plays out.

The models had 0.35-0.55" for Albuquerque in liquid equivalent with the system, and the actuals came in around 0.10-0.25" from I can see. I had about 2.0 inches of snow with temperatures in the 15-25 range generally. The airport legitimately had 0.18" fall as snow with 60 mph winds, but I had no wind at my house, which is unusual for an east-wind snow event here. This is my way of saying we probably sent you some desert-enhanced dryness with the Arctic air.

I watch the five minute observations when cold fronts come in. They've dropped from 47F at 8 pm to mid-20s by 11 pm. Some snow at the airport too. But the east wind is already pretty high at the airport. I don't think they'll get very much at the official site. The dew points still have to crater from where they are if we're really going to drop to 0-5F or 5-10F in the city. Still pretty normal dew points (18F dew point at the moment).

We had thunder and lightning in Albuquerque tonight. Wasn't really in the forecast, even though it's pretty obvious the clash of the airmasses is pretty dynamic here. The models just don't have a good read on the setup even at this hour.

The airport managed a staggering 0.03" with the line of thunderstorms. I just want the damn front to be through by Midnight. I hate when Arctic air comes in at 1 am and we have a high of 45 or 50 because it was that warm for 10 minutes very early in the day. I do like some snow for the city, but I think it's really a 3-4 hour window for Albuquerque to get snow. Some spots are probably going to get 6 inches in the NE heights, Rio Rancho, and maybe the West Mesa. I went 1-4", locally under 1" or up to 6" for the city.