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Still snowing in places down here. Taos Powderhorn snow pack may cross 80 inches for the first time this cold season tomorrow.

Old east wind snow event for Albuquerque.

Winter Weather Advisory up for Albuquerque. I think most of the city is going to get under two inches. Higher amounts to the western areas of the city. Nice little storm for March though. Timing matches the big SOI crash ten days ago. Not bad for Southern Colorado either.

Check out the warm up since mid-February.

Nino 4 convective forcing looks like it is coming back after getting shut down for about 2-3 months. Temps there are about to hit 28.0C again. The anomalies for the past four weeks are just not that impressive even on the warm 1991-2020 baseline: Nino 1.2: +0.13C Nino 3 : -0.35C Nino 3.4: -0.68C Nino 4 : -0.68C Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 17MAR2021 27.1 0.5 27.0-0.2 26.8-0.5 27.9-0.4

WPC for Monday-Wednesday. The latest GFS is a little bit faster with when precipitation arrives Tues-Weds down here. I think we're going to get a coating to two inches in Albuquerque. That's been hard to come by in March. If the airport gets at least 1.5", this becomes the snowiest Oct-May since 2006-07 for the city.

As much as I'd like to believe we'll have an El Nino next winter, the Feb-Mar pattern isn't that different from a year like 1985 which did not become an El Nino. Will be curious to see if we get the 1-3" snow shown by the Weather.com forecast and some of the raw model runs show on Tuesday-Wednesday in Albuquerque. Been a long time since we've had significant snow in March. I'd also like to see this cold season become the snowiest one locally since 2006-07. Another 1.5" would do that. The SOI also returned positive in recent days and that looks to continue through a lot of the rest of the month. May not be far off from 0 overall in March.

GFS/Euro both pretty similar for the system in the day 2.5-3.5, and 3.5-4.5 range down here. Not a bad setup for Southern Colorado in the initial day either. Looks like 1-4 feet of snow for the highest mountains down here.

Still a lot more snow coming for the West for at least the next couple of weeks. Looks like a good snow and precipitation event in the next four-five days. The snowy West idea I had in my forecast looks pretty strong at this point.

There was a 988 mb low in the same spot over southern Kamchatka as the 970 mb low two days ago. That's probably early April (4/2-4/6?). That might be the final storm in the sequence. There is definitely a break after that. Although longer term, the GFS does have other potent systems up there around day 5 and on, but not sure I buy it. The system the Euro has down here for 3/23-3/24 ties in correctly to the major SOI crash 3/11-3/13. One day 13 point drop, with a two day drop of 18 points.

No Jamstec update yet. Looks like they got hacked? http://www.jamstec.go.jp/j/about/press_release/20210318_2/

The short range models can forecast dust and other fine particulates if I remember correctly. That's one reason they tend to do well and not dramatically overstate totals. The dry air was here for sure, we had a dew point reading of -23 the other day just before that storm came in. I'm sure that got mixed in.

PDO update via Nate Mantua: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO 2020-11-01T00:00:00Z -1.12 2020-12-01T00:00:00Z -0.9 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z -0.16 2021-02-01T00:00:00Z -0.54 First time the PDO has been negative for winter in a while. Trend is definitely down in recent winters: 2014-15: +2.4 2015-16: +1.4 2016-17: +0.9 2017-18: +0.5 2018-19: +0.5 2019-20: +0.0 2020-21: -0.5 Most negative winter PDO since 2011-12 (-1.3).

More than half way through March now. SOI is still around -4 month to date. SOI needs to be near +5 the rest of the month just to get back to 0 for March. There aren't really any good SOI matches for +16 January, +11 February, -4 March since 1931. Will be curious to see how it changes by 3/31. The top matches for winter in Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 3, and Nino 1.2 imply an El Nino is pretty likely next year. DJF Nino4 Nino34 Nino3 Nino12 2020 27.32 25.57 25.05 23.71 0.00 1964 27.20 25.69 24.76 23.71 0.53 1950 27.15 25.41 24.86 23.67 0.55 1954 27.27 25.56 24.73 23.34 0.75 1984 27.59 25.55 24.62 23.64 0.78 2000 27.46 25.87 25.31 23.80 0.80 1962 27.56 25.89 24.91 23.57 0.83 This La Nina wasn't very cold in the eastern zones in the winter. The below lists are all years within 0.2C of observed SSTs in Dec-Feb. Since Nino 3 was only -0.5C or so against 1951-2010, there are far more years close to its temperatures than in Nino 3.4 or 4, which were much colder compared to their averages. Structurally, the years that were closest, within 0.2C in 3-4 of the four Nino zones in winter were 1950-51, 1964-65, 1995-96, 2011-12. The blend of the four years would give you a weak El Nino in fall, since 2012 almost became an El Nino. But then a rapid decay in winter. 1951-52 would be classified as a Neutral today anyway with the warmer Nino 3.4 baseline. 1996-97 is a cold Neutral that rapidly started to warm in Nino 1.2 in February/March. Top Matches for Nino 4: Winters starting 1950, 1954, 1964, 2000, 2008, 2011. Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1965, 2009. Neutrals: 2001, 2012 La Ninas: 1955 Top Matches for Nino 3.4: Winters starting 1950, 1954, 1964, 1967, 1971, 1984, 1995, 2011, 2017. Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1965, 1968, 1972, 2018 Neutrals: 1985, 1996, 2012 La Ninas: 1955 Top Matches for Nino 3: Winters starting 1950, 1956, 1961, 1962, 1966, 1971, 1974, 1980, 1983, 1985, 1995, 1996, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2012 Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1957, 1963, 1972, 1986, 2006, 2009 Neutrals: 1962, 1967, 1981, 1996, 2012, 2013 La Ninas: 1975, 1984 Top Matches Nino 1.2: Winters starting 1950, 1956, 1958, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1966, 1984, 1995, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2007, 2012 Following Years: El Ninos: 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1997, 2002 Neutrals: 1959, 1962, 1967, 1985, 1996, 2001, 2013 La Ninas: 2000, 2008

Really hasn't been a terrible cold season at all for the northern high terrain out here. Check out snow pack at Taos Powderhorn, at 11,000 feet, compared to the 10 year average (the black line). For March, the WPO & NAO are the strongest teleconnections in the West. WPO has been quite favorable this month. The 6-10 look is basically an idealized +WPO look for the US in March. The Euro is also trying to wake up the subtropical jet in the next six days or so. Despite pretty decent snow totals since September, we haven't had an overall wet month in New Mexico in close to a year at this point, so it's about due for that damn thing to wake up. I think it's real given that it tends to arise from the dead when La Nina dies and you see it via a big SOI collapse. Past three weeks the SOI is predominantly negative.

One of these days a series of storms like in 1949 will show up for you guys in CO/WY. Snowfall patterns nationally have been somewhat similar to 1947-48 this winter, so it may not be too long if we're real lucky. The first storm in that crazy sequence in 1949 actually took a similar track to the most recent storm. Taos Powderhorn had 25 inches of snow yesterday, down here at 11,000 feet. Storm definitely helped our snow pack. Storm Tuesday should help too.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06JAN2021 23.1-0.8 24.7-0.8 25.5-1.1 27.1-1.3 13JAN2021 24.0-0.3 24.7-0.9 25.4-1.2 27.0-1.3 20JAN2021 23.9-0.8 25.2-0.6 25.5-1.1 26.9-1.4 27JAN2021 24.6-0.5 25.7-0.2 25.9-0.7 27.1-1.1 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 Some real fast warming in the eastern zones now. SOI has been predominantly negative for three weeks now too. Some hints of the subtropical jet starting to strengthen.

There have been a series of very powerful lows moving across or just south of Southern Kamchatka semi-regularly since late February. The GFS has more systems in that zone the next few days before shutting them down. I'm expecting the sequence of big storms moving across the West semi-regularly to continue through week one of April. After that' 95% of the US should be done with snow, and can score my snowfall outlook. Don't underestimate the WPO in Feb-Apr in the West. It's pretty powerful as a cold signal. We've essentially had the +WPO and MJO phase 8 blended together so far.

After the storm in a couple days, I think there are 2-4 more storms of lower intensity based on the progression of powerful lows over southern Kamchatka since late February. There was another big one the other day, 990 mb or so. That's for the end of the month. Big SOI crash the other day has been showing up around 3/22-3/23 as a good system too. After that, there are several days forecast with 980-990 mb lows in that southern Kamchatka zone over the next three days on the GFS, favoring, roughly early April. The final storm in the sequence will probably be the most powerful, and then it will warm dramatically, I think we'll see mid-80s down here once the sequence ends. Broadly speaking, that Kamchatka zone is the northern part of the WPO / West Pacific Oscillation zone, and that area is highly correlated to cold in the West in Feb-Apr, and it also helped us out in the Fall with the big systems in Sept/Oct.

Our mountains have done well too. This storm is pretty close to what I expected when that big low moved south of Kamchatka on 2/23. It was 970 mb. The Bering Sea Rule translation said that system would be in Northern NM around 3/12-3/16. This is also now the fifth or sixth time it's gotten cold at the same in the 46-day cycle here since July 1.

SOI is still very negative for March. Hanging out at -5 or so for 3/1-3/12. Cold is shrinking below the surface as it pushes toward the surface. Pretty warm to 150W or so now.

This is what I have for NAO correlations to total snow for the US nationally. The areas in white are pretty highly correlated, 0.1-0.2, or 0.2 to 0.4 (r-squared) for the R-squared between the winter NAO and total snow July-June, for 1950-51 to 2019-20 period. Nashville is the place in the US where the NAO is most directly tied to total snow for 1950-51 to 2019-20 from the sites I tested. In New Mexico, many of the top snowfall seasons occur in years featuring very +NAO or very -NAO winters. So it matters, but not in a direct correlation sense. Much of the West is similar, but some sites do very well with somewhat negative and very positive, or very positive and somewhat negative, and so on. If you filtered by ENSO, the results would also be very different. NR means the relationship is not statistically significant for the 70 year period, even though they might tilt one way. Cheyenne is the only place to see a statistically significant relationship where a +NAO winter favors heavier snow.

The next runs of the 3-km NAM and HRRR (the 48 hour run) should give some insight as to whether the GFS is right with the stronger upslope/precip totals or not. My hunch is there is a lot of precip, but a lot of it will be rain. Not all though. Someone should get 30-40 inches of brick snow at least.

I didn't have the big snows in the Northeast far enough south in my outlook. I thought they'd be NYC west/north. But with the NAO negative on net after a negative January it makes sense that the 'average' line for snow setup south of where I had it, over Philadelphia rather than New York City. Many of the features I had did show up for the snow map. Notably, the lack of snow by the North Dakota/Montana border, heavy snow in the Midwest for places like Iowa (Des Moines I had at 150% in the raw analogs), and generally good snow totals for the interior West. I had the South generally below average. That was fine for the southeast, but not right south-central. Texas actually can get a lot of snow in the right type of La Nina. New Mexico will also tend to do well for snow in periods of very high +NAO OR very high -NAO periods. Only spot in the country with that distinction. Some of the towns I look at in New Mexico have had one of their snowiest cold seasons to date for July 1-March 10. Northern New Mexico: Albuquerque: 13.7", 16th snowiest July 1-March 10 since 1931-32. Snowiest La Nina in that time frame. 5,300+ feet. Clayton: 26.9", 12th snowiest July 1-March 10 since 1931-32 (there are some missing years here). Plains near OK/TX Los Alamos: 38.0", 40th snowiest July-March 10 since 1931-32 (a few missing years). 7,300 feet. Notably well behind 2018-19 (63.1", 12th snowiest for the period). Los Lunas: 13.4", 4th snowiest July-March 10 since 1958-59. South of Albuquerque, lower elevation by floor of the Rio Grande Valley, 4,800+ feet. Eagle Nest: 93.9", 2nd snowiest July-March 10 since 1931-32 (some missing data). Elevation is 8,200+ feet here. Southern New Mexico Roswell: 10.9", 34th snowiest July-March 10 since 1931-32 (two missing years). 3,600 feet. SE New Mexico. Hillsboro: 13.0", 17th snowiest July-March 10 since 1931-32. 5,200 feet. SW New Mexico Gila Hot Springs: 20.2", Snowiest July-March 10 since 1957-58. 5,600 feet. SW New Mexico.