raindancewx

Pretty obvious that the public is never going to buy into the recommended social policy changes for climate change. Knowledge in science has no real relevance for designing or inspiring societal change. Easily possible to be a great thinker for one and a dumb-ass for the other. The scientists leading a lot of the charge don't exactly help themselves. Mann was talking about how he coined the "AMO" recently in the 80s/90s and then spent a lot of this year regretting it since newer research shows the AMO phases are tied to volcanic eruptions (duh, the same major volcanoes erupted in the late 1890s, 1930s, 1960s, 1990s, and have started to recently. I have books from the 1950s on climate that speculated that was the mechanism. Doesn't exactly inspire faith in Mann). I think it's pretty likely a lot of the younger scientists will see many of their ideas dis-proven as well.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 28APR2021 24.0-1.0 26.9-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.0 05MAY2021 24.1-0.7 26.8-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.2 12MAY2021 23.9-0.6 26.8-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 19MAY2021 23.5-0.7 26.7-0.4 27.7-0.2 28.9-0.0 26MAY2021 23.4-0.5 26.7-0.3 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 02JUN2021 23.2-0.4 26.6-0.2 27.6-0.2 28.8-0.2 I am cautiously optimistic that Summer in the US will not be blazing hot everywhere. Think we say a warm start cool finish in the West, with consistent heat waves and cold shots for the East. We'll see soon enough. Some fairly cold Summers shows up as good SST matches locally.

27.45C in Nino 3.4 in May 2021 is -0.5C against 1991-2020 but solidly Neutral long-term. Euro missed the boat on May too.

You can always tell that scientists in meteorology aren't used to dealing with the public. Saying 97% consensus means nothing if the consensus is wrong. You can just look at the number of times the consensus about COVID has changed about death rates, proper testing, forecasting models, evaluating symptoms, public policy response, etc, to see why people don't give a damn about consensus. The case for warming is pretty strong, but if you put 100 scientists in a room I doubt they'd agree on the current temperature of the Earth or the best way to measure it. Presumably if I tracked the room temperature in my living room in six different spots for 100 years you'd have slight variation in the trends even within the same room, so the differences globally are unavoidable. So there is still infinite gradation in what is right or not in terms of the details, just as with anything. Most of the criticism of the science is really about conservatives recognizing (correctly) that even well meaning scientists have self-interested motivation, i.e. they'll look like buffoons if someone does ever disprove the current theories.

+0.69. A weighted blend of 1989, 1991, 2009, 2011 is pretty close to May observations for the US temp profile.

Canadian Model has trended much warmer in the short term in the tropical pacific but still shows a La Nina redeveloping in Fall.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 28APR2021 24.0-1.0 26.9-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.0 05MAY2021 24.1-0.7 26.8-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.2 12MAY2021 23.9-0.6 26.8-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 19MAY2021 23.5-0.7 26.7-0.4 27.7-0.2 28.9-0.0 26MAY2021 23.4-0.5 26.7-0.3 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 Subsurface warmth is there still , but is actually thinning a bit on the ENSO animation and PDF.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 19MAY2021 23.5-0.7 26.7-0.4 27.7-0.2 28.9-0.0 20MAY2020 23.9-0.3 26.4-0.7 27.4-0.5 28.9-0.1 Last year this is when the La Nina began.

The ENSO signal sort of got over-ridden by the AO/NAO going crazy (+) in November and then the WPO also going ~record positive/negative at times in Fall-Spring. The wetness out here recently is arguably more tied to the +WPO/NAO than the ENSO changes. There has been actually been somewhat substantial reduction in drought in both eastern NM and eastern CO in recent weeks. My idea for the cold season had been 2007-08 -ish, given that year had a positive WPO despite a healthy La Nina, which is fairly unusual. The main issue with 2007 was always that the pattern was telegraphing at least some -NAO periods as early as September for the cold season. April and May NAO behavior is useful to look at for the winter when anchored to ENSO transition conditions, so will be interesting to see if the subsurface keeps warming. NAO was negative in 2020/2021 in April after being positive that month for a decade.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 24MAR2021 25.4-0.9 26.6-0.7 26.8-0.6 27.8-0.6 31MAR2021 24.9-1.1 26.8-0.6 27.1-0.5 27.9-0.6 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 28APR2021 24.0-1.0 26.9-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.0 05MAY2021 24.1-0.7 26.8-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.2 12MAY2021 23.9-0.6 26.8-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.8-0.1 The cold first half of May was something I expected this month. I had May 1979, 2008, and 2019 as three of the five analogs for May back in February. Large areas of the US below 5F in H1 May in a few of those years. May has been pretty wet in parts of New Mexico, that's correlated rather well with +NAO November years (near record + in Nov 2020) and the +WPO years in January (record + in January 2021). Wouldn't be May out here without crazy hail either and high elevation snow.

My guess is no one in this thread has read the book.

I don't get why people are so obsessed either way with the climate stuff. It's a one directional trend being super-imposed on a chaotic, highly variable system. The variable system is the interesting part, not the one-directional trend. Obsessing over whether the change is x, or x+0.5C or x-0.5C over some arbitrary period is pretty ridiculous given that everyone lives on a single point on the Earth and doesn't ever experience the global average temperature. Figuring out the specific regional trends on small time scales is way more interesting than figuring out that Atlanta will overall be 1F warmer in 100 years while the North Pole will be 5F warmer.

Assuming the subsurface is +0.66 or so in May for 100-180W, the closest matches for March-May are 1987, 1989, 1991, 2009, 2011, 2018. 100-180 Mar Apr May 1987 0.60 0.31 0.58 1989 0.42 0.50 0.61 1991 0.18 0.80 0.76 2009 0.08 0.65 0.87 2011 0.50 0.58 0.47 2018 0.51 0.80 0.88 2021 0.27 0.60 0.66 Also looks like our friends in Japan are close to restoring the Jamstec seasonal website after the hacking issue. Also meant to mention the other day, the Nov-Apr PDO value finished around -0.8. That's the most negative PDO for that period in a long time. Last Nov-Apr more negative was 2011-12. For the past 30-years, it's a top five negative PDO value for Nov-Apr.

If the subsurface for 100-180W stays around +0.6 for May, the top matches for Spring start to look like 1989, 1991, 2011, and 2018 among others.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03FEB2021 25.3-0.2 25.8-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.1 10FEB2021 25.4-0.5 25.4-0.9 25.5-1.2 27.0-1.2 17FEB2021 25.7-0.5 26.2-0.3 26.0-0.7 27.2-1.0 24FEB2021 25.2-1.1 25.7-0.9 25.7-1.2 27.2-1.0 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 17MAR2021 27.1 0.5 27.0-0.2 26.8-0.5 27.9-0.4 24MAR2021 25.4-0.9 26.6-0.7 26.8-0.6 27.8-0.6 31MAR2021 24.9-1.1 26.8-0.6 27.1-0.5 27.9-0.6 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 28APR2021 24.0-1.0 26.9-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.0 05MAY2021 24.1-0.7 26.8-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.2 Subsurface continues to rapidly warm. We're on month two now for a much warmer subsurface y/y.

Euro is pretty neutral, but the verification almost always shows up on the high or low side of the plume.

CPC monthly data for April came in much colder than the weeklies. 2021 2 25.76 26.76 -1.00 2021 3 26.50 27.29 -0.80 2021 4 27.08 27.83 -0.75 Monthly data is -0.75C v. 1991-2020, but only -0.50 or so v. 1951-2010 which I find is a better ENSO indicator. The weekly data implied 27.5C for April. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 31MAR2021 24.9-1.1 26.8-0.6 27.1-0.5 27.9-0.6 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 28APR2021 24.0-1.0 26.9-0.5 27.5-0.4 28.7-0.0

MJO entering phase one about 5/1: 2017, 2016, 2014, 2013, 2010, 2005, 1995, 1990, 1981. Euro shows Nino 3.4 cooling off a lot in April while the weeklies showed slow warming. Such is the fun of using different baselines (1991-2020 for the weeklies, 1981-2010 for the Euro) and different datasets (OISST and ERSST). Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 17MAR2021 27.1 0.5 27.0-0.2 26.8-0.5 27.9-0.4 24MAR2021 25.4-0.9 26.6-0.7 26.8-0.6 27.8-0.6 31MAR2021 24.9-1.1 26.8-0.6 27.1-0.5 27.9-0.6 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1

Subsurface value for 100-180W came in at +0.56. Up from -0.82 in February. The closest subsurface match transition is 2009 for February-April. 2006, 2011, 2012, 1989, 2001 are kind of close too, and 2018 is the most recent year with any similarity February March April 2006: -0.92 -0.29 +0.42 2009: -0.50 +0.08 +0.65 2011: -0.22 +0.50 +0.58 Blend: -0.55 +0.10 +0.55 2021: -0.82 +0.27 +0.56 Not really any big La Ninas that have behaved similarly. Here is a list of years at or above +0.5 in April for 1979-2020: 1980, 1981, 1982, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1997, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2018. Of the 13 years, 7 are El Ninos next winter. Only 2011 is a La Nina. From that list, 2009, 2011, 2018 followed La Nina winters, but 1981, 1982, 1989, 1990, 1997, 2014 also followed cold-ENSO winters.

The 5/1 Canadian Model run has warmer conditions in the short term but still reverts to a La Nina in late Summer-Spring. If anything, the trend is notably colder in the long term.

Summer will be pretty telling for any ENSO transition. Years that moved from La Nina in winter to El Nino the next winter tend to have pretty standard Summer evolution, so should be pretty clear in the next 6-8 weeks what will happen. If you run correlations for what happens after a (net) -NAO winter for the Summer, there is a tendency for heat/high pressure stronger than usual over Texas. The moisture from the Gulf literally rolls up the Rio Grande Valley clockwise, which is consistent with La Nina to El Nino years favoring good monsoon patterns in the Southwest. We're about due for a cold(er) August out here after two years of near-record warmth in that month. That's often tied to intense late Summer heat in the East. The actual timing of an El Nino onset at the surface is pretty important if it does develop. There is usually some kind of dramatic flip. With the current dying La Nina, the big intense storms in the West in Sept/Oct, and then the huge WPO flip in the Fall were pretty telling as the La Nina went from peaking early (Halloween-ish) to stagnating/slowly weakening.

Euro had the right idea with the La Nina dying (at least until Fall) after March. The 120-170W, 5S-5N zone is not really cold enough (blue) to be a La Nina anymore.

Pattern nationally still isn't really deviating from some of the cold-ENSO years just yet. I've liked 2007-08 for a while now. If you lag it by 0-2 weeks each month, it's been a good match for ages.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03MAR2021 26.6 0.2 26.5-0.4 26.3-0.7 27.4-0.8 10MAR2021 27.4 0.9 27.1 0.1 26.9-0.3 27.7-0.5 17MAR2021 27.1 0.5 27.0-0.2 26.8-0.5 27.9-0.4 24MAR2021 25.4-0.9 26.6-0.7 26.8-0.6 27.8-0.6 31MAR2021 24.9-1.1 26.8-0.6 27.1-0.5 27.9-0.6 07APR2021 25.3-0.5 26.9-0.6 27.3-0.5 28.3-0.3 14APR2021 24.7-0.9 26.9-0.7 27.5-0.4 28.5-0.1 21APR2021 24.6-0.8 27.1-0.4 27.6-0.3 28.6-0.1 It's dead. Warm subsurface still too.