raindancewx

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 23 Oct 2021 1010.35 1010.90 -22.18 11.18 8.13 22 Oct 2021 1013.86 1010.00 6.25 11.58 8.55 21 Oct 2021 1014.88 1010.10 12.18 11.38 8.66 20 Oct 2021 1016.08 1012.15 6.70 11.41 8.73 Some fun for me coming. Been ages since we've have an almost 30 point daily SOI crash. Longer-term, the 90 day SOI is still at weak La Nina levels (+8 to +12)

This is probably the simplest way to explain why I'm not in the Modoki La Nina camp. Right now, it is much warmer than last year by Peru. Last year, the cold there shifted West. This year, the body of "less cold" should shift West. The cold below the surface should come up to the east though. In general, there is a big trend to much more -IOD conditions (warmer near Indonesia, colder east of East Africa), and the -PDO especially - 2-5C colder by the West Coast, warmer east of Japan where the warm tongue is for the -PDO.

Some interesting things happening in the background: -NAO with a +AO. That's not real common. Still think it's interesting that people think this event is going to catch up to last year at the surface. When is that going to happen? It's not early anymore. There are no big areas of purple like last year to spread out. The development is also opposite of last year, the western zones seem to be warming a bit this year, while they were cooling at this time last year. This is still a relatively basin wide event with a weakness in the middle to me (around 120W).

This month is a good example of how useless the teleconnections are in certain periods. The October temperature profile matches well to an idealized +WPO look in the Pacific, and nothing like a -NAO look in the Atlantic. My view is the WPO beats the NAO with a hammer in the Sept-Oct and also May as an indicator. We essentially have the La Nina version of the +WPO look this month.

Some of the -ENSO Novembers following a +WPO/-NAO October include years like 1960, 1998, 2005 which broadly look like November on the CFS at the moment.

I'm not a huge fan of the bucketing for periods as long as Dec-Mar. A lot of the stronger ENSO events start with one form and then migrate to another. I'm much more interested in the similar start and similar finish v. a similar average look. I liked 2007 last year because it was very cold by Peru initially and then it gradually shifted to become very cold by Nino 4 as the east warmed. If you just looked at the average of 2007-08 you would miss that transition. Nino 4 is a relevant precipitation indicator in February - it'll be interesting if it's much warmer than last year. For what it's worth, when Accuweather speaks of the "severe" January or whatever, I think they're going with the TNI tendency (Nino 1.2 v. Nino 4 for stronger warmth/cold). When the TNI is positive, the east tends to be warm in January. TNI was positive last January. The +TNI years are the Modoki La Nina / East El Nino years, while the -TNI years are the Modoki El Nino / East La Nina years. (+TNI January: 1998, 2012, 2021, -TNI January: 2010, 2014, 2018). Issue is the -TNI years are much more common in El Ninos, and so the -TNI eastern cold is really just dominated by the PDO signal when you have a -TNI with +PDO, since east La Ninas are less common than Modoki El Ninos. I think there are 10 meaningfully -TNI, cold ENSO Januaries (Jan 1968, 1979, 1981, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2002, 2013, 2014, 2018), and at least 20 in warm ENSO years since 1950, so even with a -TNI in January (which I expect), I don't buy the correlation map below. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/tni.data

La Nina or not, no meaningful fires this year out here with the relatively cold/wet Summer. I like to speak with farmers and ranchers before I do my forecasts. The state looks somewhat healthier than the drought monitor would imply for vegetation with short-term increases in soil moisture. If you've never left the East, we call this first picture "the night sky".

If you look at the forecasts for the North Pacific, the next big Kamchatka low around 10/27 is forecast to move/obliterate the recent very persistent North Pacific high placement. That would translate using the Bering Sea Rule to a big pattern change for the US around 11/13-11/17. My analogs had a big pattern flip ~11/15 when I did my winter outlook. I'm inclined to believe the the 10/27 low off Kamchatka is real, as is the following change in the North Pacific. But it's obviously speculative until we get closer.

Next time frame is 11/6-11/10 for NM/CO (10/20, +17-21 days) with the low today SE of Kamchatka. This one is way south of the other one, likely better for NM. The storm in a week by Kamchatka is shown to move that stupid North Pacific high around 10/27. That's your big mid-Nov pattern change if it verifies.

The storm shown in a week or so in the same spot as the one today south of Kamchatka is forecast on some runs to move that damned north Pacific high for a while. That's your mid-Nov pattern change via the Bering Sea Rule if it happens (10/27, +17-21 days for the pattern change). The Kamchatka storm today lines up well with my analogs which had a good snow signal locally around 11/8 (10/20, +17-21 days). Had mentioned mid-Nov for a pattern flip in my outlook from 10/11.

Jim Sullivan again for the second half of the video.

Nate Mantua sent out the new PDO value for September today. 2021 PDO Index monthly values: January -0.16 February -0.54 March -1.17 April -0.91 May -0.94 June -1.18 July -1.87 August -1.12 September -1.53 Last September was -0.7. Look familiar? Btw, most -PDO for September since 2012. Similar to 9/2011 (-1.79).

What are you talking about? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/pna.data 1988 0.03 1.37 0.38 1.12 0.61 1.31 1.60 -0.62 -0.97 0.89 0.11 0.33 1989 -1.57 -1.71 -1.56 -0.77 -0.04 -0.56 -0.59 -0.27 0.41 -1.08 -0.70 0.57 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01SEP2021 20.7-0.1 24.7-0.2 26.4-0.3 28.4-0.2 08SEP2021 20.8 0.1 24.7-0.1 26.5-0.2 28.3-0.3 15SEP2021 20.7-0.0 24.6-0.3 26.4-0.3 28.2-0.4 22SEP2021 21.1 0.4 24.7-0.2 26.5-0.2 28.2-0.5 29SEP2021 21.2 0.5 24.8-0.2 26.2-0.5 27.9-0.7 06OCT2021 20.9 0.1 24.7-0.3 26.1-0.6 27.9-0.7 13OCT2021 20.7-0.2 24.4-0.7 26.0-0.8 28.1-0.5 I'm on board with the government now - we're at 26.0C. That's cold enough for a La Nina to me. About two months later than last year though. Still running warm of last year each zone. 02SEP2020 20.1-0.6 23.9-1.0 26.0-0.7 28.3-0.4 09SEP2020 19.6-1.1 23.9-1.0 26.1-0.6 28.3-0.3 16SEP2020 20.0-0.7 24.0-0.9 26.0-0.7 28.2-0.4 23SEP2020 20.2-0.5 24.0-0.9 25.9-0.8 28.1-0.5 30SEP2020 19.9-0.8 24.3-0.6 25.9-0.8 27.9-0.7 07OCT2020 20.0-0.8 24.0-1.0 25.8-0.9 27.9-0.7 14OCT2020 20.6-0.3 24.0-1.1 25.6-1.2 27.8-0.8 Looks like the Peruvian fishermen will win again. The cooling below the surface looks like it is about to stop. Should translate to coldest readings at the surface in 2-4 weeks after the cooling stops. Then the La Nina begins a slow death. We've been following the 2011 most closely of the years when that data exists. The timing of an imminent reversal (1-3 weeks I think) is on schedule with 2011.

It's forecast to be a 999 mb low at the surface on one of the models I saw. Not too bad really. I think with the PDO so negative at the moment a lot of these "Bering Sea" translations are going to be somewhat north of where they would be normally in the West, although the jet shifts south with time. From the local NWS - Strong winds aloft rounding the base of an eastward moving upper low, currently over south central NV, will overtake our area tonight into Tuesday morning as the low continues east into CO. Breezy to windy conditions are developing across our area ahead of the upper low, as a lee side trough deepens to 999mb at the surface. My matching precipitation analogs to each month of July-June 2020-21 in Albuquerque did pretty well for the monsoon (I created a blend that was within 0.2 inches of observed precipitation each month for an entire year, and rolled it forward). Will be curious to see how that continues or breaks. Years included 1937-38 for 2020-21, so 1938 had the hurricane hit on New England, similar to this year. Have to see if I can find the image I have of that blend somewhere.

Going into this winter,one thing I looked at was anti-logs. So this is a La Nina after a La Nina. My idea was what do El Nino after El Nino winters look like, flipped? I threw out 'three year' El Ninos. This is only second year events of a two year sequence with the sign flipped. October for El Nino after El Nino years, flipped, are a strong opposite match to this year, which is what you'd expect conceptually. For winter, El Nino after El Nino flipped implies a cold NW US winter. We'll see.

One thing I looked at last year was the WPO state in La Nina Octobers and then the following winters. These are "meaningfully" positive or negative WPO years since 1950. -WPO October La Ninas: 1954, 1974, 1984, 1988, 1995, 1999. You can throw in "near-La Ninas" 1959, 1966, 1967, 1978, 1981, 1996, 2001, 2012 too. It's not a not super common look though. Last year was -1.18 in October. Whether you include the near years or not, the signature is for a cold spot in the interior West (Great Basin). I had a similar look to that, but it the cold was centered SE of where I had it, by TX rather than Utah. +WPO October La Ninas: 1950, 1955, 1956, 1964, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1983, 1998, 2000, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2017. The "near-La Ninas" of 1960, 1961, 1962, 1980 too. The +WPO Octobers have the Southern and Eastern US warm and a tiny cold spot in the Northwest (Montana to WA). It's a essentially a classic -PDO signature. Assuming the WPO finishes positive this month, will be interesting to see if we go to the latter composite. That's essentially what I forecast for the winter.

October has switched to matching the "year after cold Nino 4 correlation" after Aug-Sept were complete opposite. Suspect this is due to the WPO switching phases in Sept to Oct. The green areas on top are positive correlations. So cold Nino 4 a year earlier favors cold. The blue areas are negative correlations - cold Nino 4 favors warm areas. You can see for October, the Midwest is warm as it should be via the correlation. West and South cold/mild. For November a cold / mild spot is possible in the South (similar to what I forecast) if we stay with the Nino 4 correlation + a year working. December is you guessed it: Cold in New Mexico after a cold Nino 4 December if the match holds.

Still a basin-wide "weak center" La Nina to me. What I mean by that is the coldest waters are right by Peru and also west of 160W. Center zone, 140W at the equator is a bit weaker than the edges if anything. That warmth SW of Mexico is a major hindrance for the northern part of the Nino zones to get too cold though.

This is what I have for winter. It's 60 slides, but I promise lots of pictures and charts. https://t.co/qpg8wV8Cmw?amp=1

I linked to my outlook in the other section if anyone is curious. Should be an interesting winter.

I have a chart in my winter outlook showing how close Nino 3, 3.4, 4 temperatures are to a 1967, 2001, 2011 blend in 2021 if anyone is curious. It's right near the front of it. Also went into a lot of detail at the end about how I scored analogs and what could wrong with the outlook. https://t.co/qpg8wV8Cmw?amp=1

https://t.co/qpg8wV8Cmw?amp=1 General Idea: - Some blocking present again (likely Dec/Mar, brief periods Nov, Jan-Feb too) - Temp pattern reflects -PDO looks - Solar incorporated I have temperature maps by month with different weightings of the five year blend I used for winter overall (1961-62, 1974-75 (x2), 2001-02, 2017-18 (2), 2020-21). Analogs have fluky snow events deep into the South each year. February is expected to be both snowy and tornadic, and I like Feb-Mar as snowy for most of the Northern US compared to averages. I went cold again in February. But the overall look is pretty different to last year. There is a strong signal for several major cold waves reaching at least parts of the Southwest (NM/TX) at times. This is 60-slides, but around 40 have pictures or charts. It's not just me blathering. Regarding ENSO strength at the surface, this is what I used to justify a weak event despite the cold below the surface. It's a bit fuzzy below, but clearer at the link.

The big drop off in SSTs this week likely is from CPC switching data sources. For the 1951-2010 period, 26.50C is average in Nino 3.4 We're not 0.5C below that yet on the weeklies. Still running well warm of last year to the east, and somewhat warm of last year in Nino 4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Starting this week, the weekly sea surface temperature data is based on OISSTv2.1 (Huang et al., 2021). This impacts slides #4-9. The source data is available at this link. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 01SEP2021 20.3-0.2 24.7-0.3 26.5-0.3 28.4-0.3 08SEP2021 20.7 0.2 24.6-0.3 26.4-0.4 28.5-0.3 15SEP2021 20.6 0.2 24.3-0.6 26.3-0.4 28.4-0.4 22SEP2021 20.6 0.2 24.5-0.4 26.4-0.3 28.2-0.5 29SEP2021 20.5-0.0 25.1 0.3 26.8 0.0 28.2-0.6 06OCT2021 20.7 0.1 24.7-0.2 26.1-0.7 28.0-0.7 02SEP2020 18.9-1.7 23.6-1.4 25.8-0.9 28.4-0.4 09SEP2020 19.5-1.0 23.4-1.4 25.7-1.0 28.5-0.3 16SEP2020 20.0-0.4 23.6-1.3 25.9-0.8 28.2-0.5 23SEP2020 19.6-0.8 23.6-1.2 25.7-1.0 28.1-0.6 30SEP2020 20.1-0.4 23.8-1.1 25.6-1.1 27.9-0.8 07OCT2020 19.5-1.1 23.4-1.5 25.5-1.2 27.8-0.9

I'm pretty similar to what you have. I've actually finished my outlook but even though I sent it to my home email from work it hasn't arrived yet. Have to try again Monday if it doesn't arrive later today. I arrived at a severe cold snap in February in four independent ways in my outlook: - Objective most similar matches for La Ninas in Albuquerque for high temps and precipitation Jan-Sept (Feb 1939, 1951, 1955, 1972, 2011, 2021 blend) - Similar solar/MJO/ENSO matches - Februaries following severe Plains centered cold Februaries. I used Feb 1936, 1978, 1994, 2018 as a proxy blend for last year and then rolled forward a year to see if Feb 1937, 1979, 1995, 2019 looked like my analogs or had a cold February. - Actual analogs I like overall are pretty cold February. For me, warmth in November is a key feature ahead of the November cold snaps. Since at least the late 70s, the super-duper cold Februaries in the Plains have tended to feature very Novembers with a +WPO, +AO, +NAO look. I do think November turns pretty cold late in the month. But should be pretty warm overall. Even last November, warm as it was, started to get cold in the West at the end of the month.

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 9 Oct 2021 1012.98 1009.70 2.51 10.87 9.55 8 Oct 2021 1014.42 1009.50 13.08 11.04 9.69 That supports something around 10/19. Have to see if it drops again tonight.