raindancewx

One issue I have with the QBO is the height of the anomaly use varies in the research, and people don't seem to reconcile that when they use it. You can see that paper uses 700 mb heights. But CPC tracks it at 30 mb heights. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

Have to see how we do in New Mexico with the storm going through, but Flagstaff getting 1.6 inches of precipitation in a single La Nina storm can't be super common. Much of the Southwest is going to finish wetter than average for the month, especially with another big system around 12/30 or 12/31. I think Flagstaff averages about two inches in December, but I'd have to look. It's certainly close to a month of precipitation for them just with the one system, with more coming. Phoenix has been doing very well today too - up to 0.80 inches so far. That's at least a month of rain for them for sure. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFLG.html https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPHX.html Some of the years I used in my forecast have been showing up recently in the 6-10 and 8-14 outlooks from CPC. They currently have January 1962 as a similar pattern to week one of January 2021.

Here is how November finished for reference: Nino 4: 28.01C Nino 3.4: 25.81C Nino 3: 24.17C Nino 1.2: 20.67 QBO: -19.78 I did use other years for my forecast. But I still don't see any reason for the La Nina or QBO to rapidly move away from the 1974 and 2017 blend. I'm not a QBO guy anyway. Wasn't the whole point of the QBO nonsense this year that December should have been cold when blended with the ENSO base state? My opinion has always been that the QBO looks like it drives certain patterns because it has one or two heavy anchoring analogs that are very cold or very hot that mask the variation when you run the composite....so this year isn't exactly changing my mind. Maybe someone who actually believes in the QBO can offer their thoughts though.

This December will finish wetter than average for most of the Southwest. If you remember July, Arizona was very wet. It's very difficult for the Southwest to be super dry in December when July is wet if you look at the history. A lot of NW NM will get 0.25" or more today, and then we'll have more around 12/30 or 12/31 I think. Not sure you guys will get something late month, I think it's the wrong track still. Rain should move to Albuquerque shortly. It always feels so weird to go back to dew points in the 40s after so many December days had negative dew points. This is already a good storm for the high terrain for us. For what it's worth, the CFS in January is very wet for Western Colorado, NM and all areas of the SW west of that line, and continues to trend wetter. Plenty more to come. I went with 1-3 feet for a lot of the high terrain in Northern NM with this system. I'd given this pattern a 3 for temperatures for NM - but it's a 5 or 6 for moisture. A lot of the NW will finish wet, and that's not a terrible outcome in a La Nina with the most -PDO in 50+ years.

The -PDO and how rare and widespread the cold was last year, rolled forward one year, with December 2021 matching. PDO is a big deal in February. Those third yellows in California mean r is up to 0.7. If you square r you get the coefficient of determination and it means that up to half the variation in temps can be explained by the PDO, for the South it's 10-25%. Look at February 2015 (record +PDO):

If you wanted to be optimistic for January: Jan 1937, 1979, 1995, 2019 is very cold nationally. But I don't think that will be the look. You have 30C waters by Indonesia which create a psuedo MJO permanent phase five look for Nov-Jan regardless of the RMM But, Feb 1936, 1978, 1994, 2018 worked for Feb 2021. December 1936, 1978, 1994, 2018 is not bad for this year with the cold coming.

I'd keep your eyes on the end of the month for something. Huge SOI crash around 12/20 and also a very powerful Kamchatka low / rex block on 12/13 both point to some fun and games around 12/30-1/3. There is already a pretty decent signal for something around 12/30 on the models now.

Did you read my forecast? I had the pattern go batshit nuts in February-March. Idea was March as a blend of 3/2019 and 3/2021 essentially. February with severe cold but shifted West of last year, and not as intense, mostly missing Texas and the deep south. February 2021 resembled a blend of February 1936, 1978, 1994, 2018 in terms of space and magnitude. So I assumed February 2022 might look like February 1937, 1979, 1995, 2019. Here is why I think I'm on the right track: I don't think January will be that cold overall, despite the cold shot modeled currently. A lot of warmth will show up at some point. I thought December would feature at least some record warmth if we got even remotely near MJO phase five, and we were early in the month. Idea for winter overall was a cold NW look warm SE look. Went +3 to +5 for winter in the south, locally hotter with the PDO the most negative in 50 years. There was record cold in the South in February 2015...I don't it's crazy to think the opposite is possible with the PDO as opposite as is physically possible to 2014-15.

As far as strength: Rising solar + El Nino following two La Ninas: 1957-58, 1968-69, 1986-87, 1997-98, 2009-10 Sunspots/month July-Jun: 1957-58 - 281.6 1968-69 - 155.7 1986-87 - 19.1 1997-98 - 54.9 2009-10 - 13.2 Blend: 104.9 sunspots (my guess is 60 for 2021-22, and then 100 for July 2022-June 2023). Strength in Nino 3.4 in DJF: 1957-58: 28.16C (+1.66C) 1968-69: 27.54C (+1.04C) 1986-87: 27.76C (+1.26C) 1997-98: 28.87C (+2.27C) 2009-10: 28.14C (+1.64C) Blend: 28.09C (+1.59C) - a strong El Nino The other check is the transition. So: 1956-57: 26.10C (-0.40C) 1967-68: 25.77C (-0.73C) 1985-86: 26.04C (-0.46C) 1996-97: 26.11C (-0.39C) 2008-09: 25.79C (-0.71C) Blend: 25.96C (-0.54C) - a weak La Nina. This event will likely finish around 25.8C in Nino 3.4 in DJF. I'm not fully convinced of an El Nino, but the early evidence is promising. In the Southwest, the coldest/wettest winters are low solar, with a huge warm up from a strong La Nina to a strong El Nino. Warm ups over 2.0C in Nino 3.4 in one year are very rare actually - but they do tend to be awesome winters here, both cold and wet. Solar would be high which would diminish the effect somewhat. The biggest warm ups (2.0C or greater gain in Nino 3.4) y/y since 1950 are likely 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2009-10, 2015-16. I'd imagine 1957, 1968, and a few others are close too. Conceptually, I'd score the potential for cold next year with a big El Nino like this for the Southwest for cold/wetness/snow compared to recent El Ninos. For us, it might be a bit cold, but I'd wager on a very wet pattern more than a very cold pattern. El Nino Strength Prior Year Pattern Solar Ideal (30=perfect pattern) 1997 10 7 7 24 2002 8 5 2 15 2004 6 3 7 16 2006 7 8 9 24 2009 9 8 10 27 2014 6 6 5 17 2015 10 2 7 19 2018 7 8 9 24 2019 5 2 10 17 2021? 7-9? 8 3-4? 18-21?

December is still a much weaker La Nina at the surface than last year. This is easiest to see with duller scales. I've been quite pleased with the winter progression overall. I had this as a cold Northwest winter back in October, hot winter for the South. That looks fine so far. The idea was real simple - in 2014-15, you had ridging from Alaska to Mexico at times with a record +PDO Nov-Apr. This year has (maybe?) a record -PDO for Nov-Apr, so I went with the opposite of 2014-15, but filtered with solar/amo/enso in there too. If you look at Nino 3.4, we keep trending warmer and warmer v. last year at the surface, regardless of the subsurface. The subsurface doesn't always translate to Nino 3.4. I mentioned in my outlook that I thought the La Nina might develop like 1967, with the cold struggling to penetrate west of 150W. That's been a good call so far if you look at the map above 12/1-12/20. Nino 3.4 -1.6 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -0.2 +0.1 -0.1 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 +0.5 (+0.3?) 2020 27.15 27.12 27.76 28.18 27.66 27.39 26.99 26.26 25.89 25.46 25.28 25.44 2021 25.54 25.75 26.49 27.10 27.48 27.45 26.91 26.34 26.16 25.77 25.81 -99.99

You've been quite the busy bee with all of these little threads. The trick I know for one year leads in ENSO is the December precipitation pattern. 1938, 1950, 1956, 1964, 1967, 1971, 1975, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2008, 2017 - those are your La Nina Decembers that were followed in a year by an El Nino. Now look at this December. Admittedly, there is a shit load of moisture dumping into the West still, so the map will change. The main features I look for are a dry-spot centered on Amarillo, NW wetness, and wetness in the Midwest. The other La Ninas, that don't turn into El Ninos, are much more erratic in December for precipitation. The La Ninas that don't turn into El Ninos look very different. I will say the displacement of the precipitation into CA v. the NW bothers me a bit. That's an AMO thing. It was record warm in November back to the 1800s, even using the de-trended nonsense CPC does. You can see the dry streak and wet spot are damn near identical to the AMO November correlation. The correlation to the AMO is weak, but it does work when the AMO is strongly positive or negative.

Subsurface warmed to -1.10 for November (was -1.6 in December, so pretty massive warming actually, similar to how an El Nino Modoki would develop, which ties in with the cold East...). Very similar to 2020 again. The ongoing trajectory of the subsurface for 100-180W remains very similar to 2011. For what it's worth, I couldn't find an individual year in the subsurface data very similar to 2021. You can kind of get there blending 1983, 1984, 2010, 2016 or using other years with a big cold cool growing in October before rapidly shrinking in November. But the level of cold isn't right, just the trend. The top SOI Sept-Nov blend is very warm for December, but the subsurface blends are very cold. I went near average to somewhat warm everywhere. Canadian look for December does match "low solar" cold ENSO November temperature profiles rolled forward, but exaggerated by a very strong -PDO. You can see what I mean on the bottom row.

The recent SOI crash has been showing as a decent storm around 12/7 for a while now. Canadian also has a fairly active December. Might be too far south for Colorado to cash in though.

The Canadian has an East-central look for the La Nina for the winter, with rapid weakening starting February. Near El Nino conditions by Summer on this run. The Southwest is not forecast to be dry, which is interesting to me.

CFS says torch Plains. Canadian says torch Southeast. This makes more sense to me. Check out the La Nina:

Everything you write is ridiculous. It's almost like you have no wife or children for a reason. Almost like not being rich despite spending a lifetime learning about math and science and forecasting indicates that you're an idiot. I guess all the time you spent as a 300 pound diabetic was before you decided to "follow the science".

It's +2...Celsius. More like +4 Fahrenheit. When December is warm in the East in the past 20 years, it tends to be very warm...about +4. I would call 15 of the past 20 Decembers warm for the Northeast. Would only call 2017 cold in the past ten years though, despite every pattern you can imagine - super El Nino, La Ninas, weaker El Ninos, Neutrals, very +/- PDO states, brief periods of -AMO conditions, +PNA/-PNA, -AO/-NAO like last year, etc etc. +4 in December would be a top 20 warm December for Boston in the past 100 years, if it verified verbatim.

My quote in the forecast was "any move through phase five should be exceptionally warm in December". We'll see if that's right, but god damn, look at the CFS - huge area of the US forecast to be +10F or hotter for the month.

Remarkable dryness often shows up nationally in the biggest -PDO years: SOI crash ties in well with the GFS / Euro showing storms down here again in early December. We've already "beaten" 2017-18 which went 96 days starting 10/5 with no measurable rain or snow here. The CFS has completely backed off the wetness for California. I always thought the +6 inches was overdone, but I suspect it's gone a bit too hard the other way now - I was thinking near average for California in December based on my analogs with 2001 in there as the wet bounding outcome. More importantly, it's very warm in the East, unlike November. I saw a lot of people use 2000 and 2010 as analogs - those December look pretty wrong again, at least right now. Most of my analogs had the East get pretty cold, at least in comparison to early November, in the second half of the month, before warming in December. So that's all on track for me. November is going to feature a -WPO look on net, that was my issue this month, if it is flips back to neutral/positive like the CFS has, then it's going to be very warm. This La Nina still just isn't that impressive at the surface. You can see we're struggling to stay below 26.0C, and that's the warmest possible bound for a La Nina. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 03NOV2021 20.6-0.8 24.4-0.7 25.8-1.0 28.0-0.7 10NOV2021 20.9-0.7 24.5-0.6 26.0-0.8 28.0-0.7 17NOV2021 20.8-1.0 24.0-1.1 25.7-1.0 27.9-0.7 24NOV2021 21.0-1.0 24.3-0.8 26.0-0.7 27.9-0.7 04NOV2020 20.5-0.9 24.0-1.1 25.3-1.5 27.9-0.8 11NOV2020 21.1-0.5 24.2-0.9 25.7-1.0 28.1-0.6 18NOV2020 21.4-0.5 24.1-1.0 25.6-1.1 27.9-0.7 25NOV2020 21.4-0.7 23.9-1.2 25.4-1.3 27.8-0.8 MJO progression is also behaving according to my forecast from 10/10. I had it waking up from incoherence as the La Nina weakened in late Fall. It's supposed to spend a fair amount of time in Phase 7 in December. I had a rotation in phase 5-8 (probably late) month, but it looks like that will happen early month. Current plot is roughly phase 5 12/1 and then phase 7 a week later.

You can't get the same kind of pattern as last year until/unless the WPO look changes. It bosses everything else around. Of course the CFS now has it changing for December.

CFS has the wettest look for California I've seen it show since January 2017 at least. For anyone who saw my outlook, I included 2001-02 in it as an analog. It's not a great analog in a lot of ways. But it has a big wet West December with similar warmth to 12/2020 overall, which is not super common as a look in cold ENSO years. In October, when the subsurface was cooling for most of the month, it was wet in the West too. The CFS also seems to be rapidly trending toward a +WPO look, which is great for me, but a major warm signal for most of you. My sense for December when I did my forecast was November would have a +WPO look and flood Canada with warm air, nullifying the effect of the later blocking in December to some extent. The WPO didn't verify that way for November, but most of Canada is very warm month to date, so not sure it matters too much. Alaska actually has been cold this month, so any storms coming into the West from that region with a +WPO look could be cold/powerful in December.

I had 2017 double weighted for this winter - take what you can get. I did try to cool it off though, 11/2017 was a +9F month here.

Do I get a cookie Chinook?

La Nina warming (weakening) has stopped for now. If we switch back to cooling for December, that will be another feather in the cap for the 2011 comparison below the surface. I'm not sure where people get this image, but I saw Larry Cosgrove quote it, so might as well show it here: ONI weeklies at the surface are a bit more cold than I would have guessed. Month to date, still no comparison to last year at the surface. Keep in mind, on the monthly data, last year finished 25.28C at the surface in Nino 3.4 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06OCT2021 21.0 0.2 24.7-0.3 26.1-0.6 28.0-0.7 13OCT2021 20.7-0.2 24.4-0.7 26.0-0.8 28.1-0.5 20OCT2021 20.3-0.7 24.2-0.8 25.9-0.8 28.1-0.6 27OCT2021 20.6-0.6 24.1-0.9 25.6-1.1 28.2-0.5 03NOV2021 20.6-0.8 24.4-0.7 25.8-1.0 28.0-0.7 10NOV2021 20.9-0.7 24.5-0.6 26.0-0.8 28.0-0.7 17NOV2021 20.8-1.0 24.0-1.1 25.7-1.0 27.9-0.7 07OCT2020 20.1-0.7 24.1-0.9 25.8-0.9 27.9-0.7 14OCT2020 20.5-0.4 24.1-0.9 25.6-1.1 27.8-0.8 21OCT2020 20.5-0.6 24.2-0.9 25.5-1.3 27.8-0.8 28OCT2020 20.3-0.9 23.8-1.3 25.0-1.7 28.0-0.7 04NOV2020 20.5-0.9 24.0-1.1 25.3-1.5 27.9-0.8 11NOV2020 21.1-0.5 24.2-0.9 25.7-1.0 28.1-0.6 18NOV2020 21.4-0.5 24.1-1.0 25.6-1.1 27.9-0.7

Last year, the Fall had some resemblance to how February played out. Will be interesting to see how if that repeats this year. These are both my normal scale - +7 for deep red, -7 for deep purple, in increments of two degrees. Cold on the West Coast in February is conceptually similar to what I had in my winter outlook. It's also similar to Februaries +1 year after similar levels of cold to February 2020 (think 1936, etc).