raindancewx

For those of you into tornado stuff, the 1962 Spring was very active. I suspect in two MJO / harmonic cycles, you'll see the current pattern repeat in April. There were some major tornado outbreaks in April 1962, late month. The December pattern with huge moisture dumps into the West should return in March when the WPO flips positive again too. March 1962 was also quite tornadic.

The year I flagged as a similar hurricane season, 1961, in my analog set has now seen the severe cold of 1961-62 show up to some extent. This look should last for a 1/4-1/3 of the month before changing. Nearly identical to the rolled forward blend of years following super-cold Plains centered Februaries I had in my forecast. Pretty happy with my forecast so far conceptually. Cold NW look idea has been fine so far. February will be the big test. February 1936/1978/1994/2018 was my match to last February. So interesting to see closeness to January 1937/1979/1995/2019 in 2022, even if it only lasts a week or two.

Not bad for rolling forward a match of severe Plains Februaries that matched last year. This is the 1961-62 part of the pattern that I thought would show up when i did my forecast in October. The look above will hold for 5-10 days in January before a lot of the Western / Eastern extremes burn off. At the surface, the La Nina remains weaker / warmer than last year to the West. My forecast called for weaker conditions to the West with more of an East-based look. Specifically wrote the event would have trouble moving the coldest waters at the surface west of 150W. Unlike a lot of East-based years though, the Indonesian waters are near 30C, so it's hard to get the Eastern US to sustain cold, since you force pseudo MJO 5 responses with that warmth. I think of the WPO+ signal as the canonical Dec MJO 5 response, and that's what you had this year. Nino 3 in Jan-Dec 2020 25.88 26.51 27.41 27.86 26.92 25.93 25.22 24.50 23.91 23.88 23.90 24.41 2021 25.04 25.68 26.52 26.79 26.69 26.30 25.49 24.65 24.45 24.20 24.09 24.01 Nino 3.4 in Jan-Dec 2020 27.15 27.12 27.76 28.18 27.66 27.39 26.99 26.26 25.89 25.46 25.28 25.44 2021 25.55 25.75 26.48 27.10 27.47 27.45 26.91 26.34 26.15 25.77 25.76 25.54 Nino 4 in Jan-Dec 2020 29.17 28.97 29.07 29.15 29.01 29.09 28.89 28.47 28.21 27.96 27.80 27.54 2021 27.27 27.24 27.67 28.20 28.71 28.83 28.68 28.54 28.23 28.04 27.99 27.75

Just a cold cold rain for me. Mountains look amazing though. My investments look like they did quite well in Q4 too. The county generally had 0.2-0.5 inches reported by trained observers. So parts of the city finished December with average precipitation.

There are worst starts to winter: More Kamchatka lows today and in the next few days. We should get more help after a break in late January.

Solar activity really popped in December, up to 67.6 sunspots. The subsurface cooled to -1.18 from -1.09 in November. Very similar behavior to 2011 still, which dropped from -0.92 to -1.07. Suspect we rebound warm faster than 2011-12, which cooled a bit more in January 2012. La Nina or not, we had a shit load of snow even in the Southwest in the past few weeks, but since it was warm, the valleys largely missed out. Ski Taos has a base of 46 inches this morning.

Canadian has less cold in the Plains. Has an east based La Nina in January slowly weakening in the new run, turns into an El Nino in mid-Summer. Canadian did pretty well in December, had most of the US warm. I had the NW cold and SE hot for winter. So this is consistent with that idea.

CFS has the -WPO returning, with the corresponding California dryness you'd expect. I don't really pay attention to mountain torque over the Western US and things like that, but if you buy into that type of stuff, it does support the -NAO flipping. I thought it'd be fairly neutral in Jan-Feb overall. We did have a pretty big period of blocking late Nov and late Dec, so not quite a -NAO December in the way I imagined but close enough (~3 days off on my end). Snow pack entering January is the highest in California in a decade. There are a lot of potent systems by Kamchatka in the coming days, so late January should transition to a more active period again. The CFS continues to show most of the West (but not California) wet in January, with the South hot and the Northwest cold. The stalled weakening / slight gains in the La Nina in December is, once again very similar to 2011-12 in terms of ENSO development. So we should see the La Nina begin to rapidly weaken in January. I'd expect the weakening to begin in earnest 1/10.

I mentioned a decent storm on my Twitter for 12/30-1/3 as early as 12/10 based on the GFS showing a Rex Block setup over Kamchatka on 12/13. That setup almost never fails for NM & CO. I personally don't really care what any models show more than 3-5 days out, especially with the airplane data sampling problems with COVID.

My comment above aged fairly well! Idea when I blended 2017-18 with 1974-75 as the main analogs for winter was to include a very warm year in the West with a very wet year in the West. https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/28/us/california-december-snow-record-drought-climate/index.html As of Tuesday, more than 202 inches of snow -- nearly 17 feet (5.2 meters) -- had fallen so far this month at the University of California, Berkeley's Central Sierra Snow Laboratory, at Donner Pass east of Sacramento. Scientists at the lab said this month is now the snowiest December on record for the location and the third snowiest month overall. The top month was January 2017 when 238 inches (6 meters) fell, and it's not likely enough snow will fall in the next three days to challenge that record. Records here go back to 1970.

Top matches for the SOI for Oct-Dec are warmer than what the CFS has nationally for January. Likely with the cold trapped in Canada in the SOI matches. But the SOI match does agree with the colder West / warmer East idea the CFS has. Impressive for a blind blend of three numbers from the top six matching years. I'm closer to the warmer SOI blend than the CFS. SOI at +12 for December would make your OND SOI matches: 1938, 1942, 1998, 2000, 2007, 2020 SOI Oct Nov Dec 1938 13.6 1.7 12.5 1942 9.2 -4 12.5 1998 11.2 13.2 11.7 2000 11.6 20.7 7.7 2007 6.1 9.9 13.3 2020 4.37 9.24 16.63 Blend 9.35 8.46 12.39 2021 7.66 11.73 12.3 1961-62 has been showing up a lot on the CPC analogs lately. There is no MJO data for that year. My suspicion is you had very similar MJO progression that year, minus the 30-31C heat by Indonesia. 1961 had a very similar hurricane season and extraordinary Summer heat in the Northwest followed by a spectacular cold dump in January. Part of why I included 1961-62 for winter is it does get very get cold nationally (cold also showed up following the similar severely placed cold Februaries I showed before). But I don't buy it lasting real long with the waters so warm by Indonesia. So the other years I had, when blended are pretty warm. The real question is if March 1962 is in the pattern....I think it is. But we'll see soon enough. Idea was 1961-62 would become a better analog over time as we exited the early winter. SOI Oct Nov Dec 1961 4.7 6.8 12.5 2021 7.6 11.7 12.3* *currently

One issue I have with the QBO is the height of the anomaly use varies in the research, and people don't seem to reconcile that when they use it. You can see that paper uses 700 mb heights. But CPC tracks it at 30 mb heights. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

Have to see how we do in New Mexico with the storm going through, but Flagstaff getting 1.6 inches of precipitation in a single La Nina storm can't be super common. Much of the Southwest is going to finish wetter than average for the month, especially with another big system around 12/30 or 12/31. I think Flagstaff averages about two inches in December, but I'd have to look. It's certainly close to a month of precipitation for them just with the one system, with more coming. Phoenix has been doing very well today too - up to 0.80 inches so far. That's at least a month of rain for them for sure. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFLG.html https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPHX.html Some of the years I used in my forecast have been showing up recently in the 6-10 and 8-14 outlooks from CPC. They currently have January 1962 as a similar pattern to week one of January 2021.

Here is how November finished for reference: Nino 4: 28.01C Nino 3.4: 25.81C Nino 3: 24.17C Nino 1.2: 20.67 QBO: -19.78 I did use other years for my forecast. But I still don't see any reason for the La Nina or QBO to rapidly move away from the 1974 and 2017 blend. I'm not a QBO guy anyway. Wasn't the whole point of the QBO nonsense this year that December should have been cold when blended with the ENSO base state? My opinion has always been that the QBO looks like it drives certain patterns because it has one or two heavy anchoring analogs that are very cold or very hot that mask the variation when you run the composite....so this year isn't exactly changing my mind. Maybe someone who actually believes in the QBO can offer their thoughts though.

This December will finish wetter than average for most of the Southwest. If you remember July, Arizona was very wet. It's very difficult for the Southwest to be super dry in December when July is wet if you look at the history. A lot of NW NM will get 0.25" or more today, and then we'll have more around 12/30 or 12/31 I think. Not sure you guys will get something late month, I think it's the wrong track still. Rain should move to Albuquerque shortly. It always feels so weird to go back to dew points in the 40s after so many December days had negative dew points. This is already a good storm for the high terrain for us. For what it's worth, the CFS in January is very wet for Western Colorado, NM and all areas of the SW west of that line, and continues to trend wetter. Plenty more to come. I went with 1-3 feet for a lot of the high terrain in Northern NM with this system. I'd given this pattern a 3 for temperatures for NM - but it's a 5 or 6 for moisture. A lot of the NW will finish wet, and that's not a terrible outcome in a La Nina with the most -PDO in 50+ years.

The -PDO and how rare and widespread the cold was last year, rolled forward one year, with December 2021 matching. PDO is a big deal in February. Those third yellows in California mean r is up to 0.7. If you square r you get the coefficient of determination and it means that up to half the variation in temps can be explained by the PDO, for the South it's 10-25%. Look at February 2015 (record +PDO):

If you wanted to be optimistic for January: Jan 1937, 1979, 1995, 2019 is very cold nationally. But I don't think that will be the look. You have 30C waters by Indonesia which create a psuedo MJO permanent phase five look for Nov-Jan regardless of the RMM But, Feb 1936, 1978, 1994, 2018 worked for Feb 2021. December 1936, 1978, 1994, 2018 is not bad for this year with the cold coming.

I'd keep your eyes on the end of the month for something. Huge SOI crash around 12/20 and also a very powerful Kamchatka low / rex block on 12/13 both point to some fun and games around 12/30-1/3. There is already a pretty decent signal for something around 12/30 on the models now.

Did you read my forecast? I had the pattern go batshit nuts in February-March. Idea was March as a blend of 3/2019 and 3/2021 essentially. February with severe cold but shifted West of last year, and not as intense, mostly missing Texas and the deep south. February 2021 resembled a blend of February 1936, 1978, 1994, 2018 in terms of space and magnitude. So I assumed February 2022 might look like February 1937, 1979, 1995, 2019. Here is why I think I'm on the right track: I don't think January will be that cold overall, despite the cold shot modeled currently. A lot of warmth will show up at some point. I thought December would feature at least some record warmth if we got even remotely near MJO phase five, and we were early in the month. Idea for winter overall was a cold NW look warm SE look. Went +3 to +5 for winter in the south, locally hotter with the PDO the most negative in 50 years. There was record cold in the South in February 2015...I don't it's crazy to think the opposite is possible with the PDO as opposite as is physically possible to 2014-15.

As far as strength: Rising solar + El Nino following two La Ninas: 1957-58, 1968-69, 1986-87, 1997-98, 2009-10 Sunspots/month July-Jun: 1957-58 - 281.6 1968-69 - 155.7 1986-87 - 19.1 1997-98 - 54.9 2009-10 - 13.2 Blend: 104.9 sunspots (my guess is 60 for 2021-22, and then 100 for July 2022-June 2023). Strength in Nino 3.4 in DJF: 1957-58: 28.16C (+1.66C) 1968-69: 27.54C (+1.04C) 1986-87: 27.76C (+1.26C) 1997-98: 28.87C (+2.27C) 2009-10: 28.14C (+1.64C) Blend: 28.09C (+1.59C) - a strong El Nino The other check is the transition. So: 1956-57: 26.10C (-0.40C) 1967-68: 25.77C (-0.73C) 1985-86: 26.04C (-0.46C) 1996-97: 26.11C (-0.39C) 2008-09: 25.79C (-0.71C) Blend: 25.96C (-0.54C) - a weak La Nina. This event will likely finish around 25.8C in Nino 3.4 in DJF. I'm not fully convinced of an El Nino, but the early evidence is promising. In the Southwest, the coldest/wettest winters are low solar, with a huge warm up from a strong La Nina to a strong El Nino. Warm ups over 2.0C in Nino 3.4 in one year are very rare actually - but they do tend to be awesome winters here, both cold and wet. Solar would be high which would diminish the effect somewhat. The biggest warm ups (2.0C or greater gain in Nino 3.4) y/y since 1950 are likely 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2009-10, 2015-16. I'd imagine 1957, 1968, and a few others are close too. Conceptually, I'd score the potential for cold next year with a big El Nino like this for the Southwest for cold/wetness/snow compared to recent El Ninos. For us, it might be a bit cold, but I'd wager on a very wet pattern more than a very cold pattern. El Nino Strength Prior Year Pattern Solar Ideal (30=perfect pattern) 1997 10 7 7 24 2002 8 5 2 15 2004 6 3 7 16 2006 7 8 9 24 2009 9 8 10 27 2014 6 6 5 17 2015 10 2 7 19 2018 7 8 9 24 2019 5 2 10 17 2021? 7-9? 8 3-4? 18-21?

December is still a much weaker La Nina at the surface than last year. This is easiest to see with duller scales. I've been quite pleased with the winter progression overall. I had this as a cold Northwest winter back in October, hot winter for the South. That looks fine so far. The idea was real simple - in 2014-15, you had ridging from Alaska to Mexico at times with a record +PDO Nov-Apr. This year has (maybe?) a record -PDO for Nov-Apr, so I went with the opposite of 2014-15, but filtered with solar/amo/enso in there too. If you look at Nino 3.4, we keep trending warmer and warmer v. last year at the surface, regardless of the subsurface. The subsurface doesn't always translate to Nino 3.4. I mentioned in my outlook that I thought the La Nina might develop like 1967, with the cold struggling to penetrate west of 150W. That's been a good call so far if you look at the map above 12/1-12/20. Nino 3.4 -1.6 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -0.2 +0.1 -0.1 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 +0.5 (+0.3?) 2020 27.15 27.12 27.76 28.18 27.66 27.39 26.99 26.26 25.89 25.46 25.28 25.44 2021 25.54 25.75 26.49 27.10 27.48 27.45 26.91 26.34 26.16 25.77 25.81 -99.99

You've been quite the busy bee with all of these little threads. The trick I know for one year leads in ENSO is the December precipitation pattern. 1938, 1950, 1956, 1964, 1967, 1971, 1975, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2008, 2017 - those are your La Nina Decembers that were followed in a year by an El Nino. Now look at this December. Admittedly, there is a shit load of moisture dumping into the West still, so the map will change. The main features I look for are a dry-spot centered on Amarillo, NW wetness, and wetness in the Midwest. The other La Ninas, that don't turn into El Ninos, are much more erratic in December for precipitation. The La Ninas that don't turn into El Ninos look very different. I will say the displacement of the precipitation into CA v. the NW bothers me a bit. That's an AMO thing. It was record warm in November back to the 1800s, even using the de-trended nonsense CPC does. You can see the dry streak and wet spot are damn near identical to the AMO November correlation. The correlation to the AMO is weak, but it does work when the AMO is strongly positive or negative.

Subsurface warmed to -1.10 for November (was -1.6 in December, so pretty massive warming actually, similar to how an El Nino Modoki would develop, which ties in with the cold East...). Very similar to 2020 again. The ongoing trajectory of the subsurface for 100-180W remains very similar to 2011. For what it's worth, I couldn't find an individual year in the subsurface data very similar to 2021. You can kind of get there blending 1983, 1984, 2010, 2016 or using other years with a big cold cool growing in October before rapidly shrinking in November. But the level of cold isn't right, just the trend. The top SOI Sept-Nov blend is very warm for December, but the subsurface blends are very cold. I went near average to somewhat warm everywhere. Canadian look for December does match "low solar" cold ENSO November temperature profiles rolled forward, but exaggerated by a very strong -PDO. You can see what I mean on the bottom row.

The recent SOI crash has been showing as a decent storm around 12/7 for a while now. Canadian also has a fairly active December. Might be too far south for Colorado to cash in though.

The Canadian has an East-central look for the La Nina for the winter, with rapid weakening starting February. Near El Nino conditions by Summer on this run. The Southwest is not forecast to be dry, which is interesting to me.