raindancewx

At this point I'd say it's 50/50 we reach 125 ACE for the year in the Atlantic. Over 150, I'd go 1/4 odds. Same for under 100. My gut is 80-140 for the season. I don't think we're going to see much at all from African waves. Gulf & Caribbean should continue to produce into October or even November. A lot of the very active Atlantic seasons get pretty cool in August in the middle of the country. We saw that briefly this year but it didn't last. No one really finished more than a degree (F) below average in August. You had pretty widespread chilly Augusts in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2016, 2017 Subsurface remained at -0.65 for August.

The Canadian has a -WPO look for Oct-Feb looks like. La Nina is dead in February. The look isn't really a technical La Nina. It's cold from 100-150W, but barely below average for 120-180W. It's close enough, but may not ever get designated officially as a La Nina. To me the Canadian is on the right track - it has the North Central US cold with cold air in Western Canada feeding the US cold. Doesn't look crazy if Canada isn't flooded with warm air from the +WPO. If cold dumps into the US from Western Canada to the North-Central Plains I'd expect the warmest areas of the US to be areas of the SE/SW most separated by mountain ranges from the cold waves in the Plains. So Southeast US east of the Appalachians and Southwest US west of the Continental Divide. We'd be in this weird transition zone here where one or two of the Blue Northers would be tall enough to move directly north to south, and then the Arctic air in the Plains would probably ooze over the shorter mountain passes here a few times. As we have literally no hurricane activity in the Atlantic, I've just about given up on going super hot here. Atlantic is rapidly correcting toward 'average' not hyperactivity at the moment. The lower activity hurricane seasons tend to see arctic air dumps into the West. I will say, the pattern v. 2020 is semi-opposite. Fall 2020 had basically all-time record -WPO cold dumps into the Rockies/Plains/Mexico in Sept/Oct that then flipped back to very +WPO conditions for a while. We're looking at +/neutral WPO conditions in September and then only 'normal' -WPO conditions in October.

My forecast calls for -3 to -5 for the Northeast this winter, with the first ever 0" snowfall season for the Boston area. Nothing but 37-42 degree rain, with storm after storm moving in during the 'just warm enough' afternoons but never at night. After each storm, a powerful cold front will drive through pushing temps well below average overnight. These cold fronts will also clear the moisture out of the air. So lows will be cold with highs near average. But timing will prevent measurable snow. You saw it here first. Meanwhile due to slightly better timing, with storms arriving in the morning, Philadelphia and DC will be just cold enough for each system, and see 50-60 inches of snow. The South will be graced with ice and sleet, floods, tornado outbreaks, with the Plains and West alternating between brief record cold snaps and +10 readings for the rest of the winter.

That composite should hold if we see 'average' hurricane activity the rest of the way. With very little activity, I think 2022 takes over. With much stronger activity, you have to start to look at the warmer high solar active years and blend them with the stormier years for the east, so 1995, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2010, 2016, 2017 as a blend. I don't think you'd go cold/stormy with the way the background signals are, but stormy + mostly warm / some cold would be possible with much higher ACE activity (say 180+ by 11/1).

August looks like the blend of the five years for most of the US, minus the unusual shot of cold air into the mountains of CA recently. This is fairly similar to what I get whenever I test features that are consistently showing up. Cold Plains, average / warm elsewhere. Actually a pretty cold December nationally.

ACE so far has been (rounded) 7 / 29 / 18 for June / July / Aug in the Atlantic. 2008: 0 / 38 / 26 2008: 0 / 38 / 26 1966: 14 / 19 / 21 1966: 14 / 19 / 21 2022: 2 / 0 / 0 ----------------- Blend: 6 / 23 / 19 2024: 7 / 29 / 18 1966: 145.2 (x2) 2008: 145.7 (x2) 2022: 95.1 ----------------- Blend: 135.4 Sept in blend: 1966: 39 (x2) 2008: 61 (x2) 2022: 76 --------------- Blend: 55 If we're below this, I can't see the rest of the season perking up too much. Oct in blend: 1966: 30 (x2) 2008: 11 (x2) 2022: 5 --------------- Blend: 17 Pretty quick slowdown from a pretty active September. Nov in blend: 1966: 15 (x2) 2008: 9 (x2) 2022: 10 -------------- Blend: 12 Data implies a fairly average September - we'll see.

The subsurface data for 100-180W at 0-300m below the surface looks like it will be about the same or a touch warmer than July. A lot of the late developing La Ninas are still pretty weak in that zone but they are typically trending steadily down by now. The -0.80 reading for Apr/May doesn't seem like it is coming back anytime soon. We're likely around -0.5 again for the subsurface. April-May were consistently below -0.75. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Also, as a reminder from my 2022-23 winter outlook, La Ninas without high ACE values tend to see major cold waves in the Southwest.2022 Atlantic ACE = 95.1. X is ACE in the Atlantic, Y is cold days in Nov-Feb (at least 5F below daily averages) Y = -0.1177x + 42.063 Y = (-0.1177 * 95.1) + 42.063 Y = 30.863 days that are 'cold' (5F or more below daily averages from Nov-Feb) Nov: 14 cold days 2022-11-18 40 28 34.0 -10.6 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-11 48 26 37.0 -10.5 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-04 48 32 40.0 -10.4 25 0 0.03 T 0 2022-11-16 44 26 35.0 -10.4 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-17 47 23 35.0 -10.0 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-19 46 24 35.0 -9.2 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-15 49 26 37.5 -8.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-12 54 24 39.0 -8.1 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-20 50 23 36.5 -7.3 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-05 58 29 43.5 -6.5 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-24 47 25 36.0 -6.2 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-22 49 25 37.0 -6.0 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-14 49 32 40.5 -5.7 24 0 0.01 0.0 0 2022-11-23 55 20 37.5 -5.1 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 December: 5 cold days 2022-12-17 37 16 26.5 -9.8 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-18 36 21 28.5 -7.7 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-16 37 22 29.5 -6.9 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-23 41 19 30.0 -5.9 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-13 39 24 31.5 -5.4 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 January: 5 cold days 2023-01-26 40 19 29.5 -9.0 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-27 43 17 30.0 -8.7 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-19 41 21 31.0 -6.7 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-25 41 25 33.0 -5.4 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-22 44 22 33.0 -5.0 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 February: 7 cold days 2023-02-16 34 19 26.5 -15.6 38 0 T 0.1 T 2023-02-17 44 17 30.5 -11.8 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-10 43 21 32.0 -8.9 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-15 41 25 33.0 -8.9 32 0 0.14 1.0 1 2023-02-09 40 27 33.5 -7.2 31 0 T T 0 2023-02-27 55 21 38.0 -6.8 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-11 49 21 35.0 -6.1 30 0 T 0.0 0 That's 31 cold days. Formula implies 30.8. Yay math. For a 'warm' favored pattern that's not bad, especially since 31 cold days represent 1/4 of the period (120 days). We're certainly well ahead of 2022 so far, but that year had 76 ACE in September and then not much else in the other months. Wouldn't shock me if we saw something similar.

I've found that hyperactive Atlantic hurricane seasons tend to occur in seasons with a big year/year warming in the tropical Atlantic. Do we have that this year? Not at all. Could it still change? Yes, but it is becoming less likely. The cold AMO has the blue backward c around the Greenland-Iceland-Azores zones with the warm tongue in between, like you see below on the y/y change map. You can see the 1994-1995 flip from cold AMO to warm AMO has the exact opposite signature flip by intensity and spatial composition. Since 1950, the La Ninas following an El Nino with a colder tropical Atlantic are pretty rare. Your La Nina after El Nino years are 1954, 1964, 1966 (close enough to a Nina), 1970, 1973, 1980 (close enough), 1983, 1988, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016 (close enough), 2020. Of those years, 1954, 1964, 1970, 2007 are really the only ones in which the tropical Atlantic (blue stripe west of West Africa) is colder than the prior El Nino year in July. Atlantic ACE in those years is 104/153/40/74 or about 93. 2007 had two cat 5 hurricanes, despite the low ACE. 1964/1970 are both cold AMO years in a colder global period, so I'd expect ACE to be somewhat higher than the 93, but maybe pretty average in the modern context (105-145). A 125 ACE year is well below the recent La Nina mean of 155 or so.

I think we're moving into the cold AMO transition. If you subtract out the cold AMO years from the warm AMO years in La Nina, the three areas of biggest change are very warm/very cold east of Japan, very warm/very cool by West Africa, very warm/very cold by NE North America. The cold AMO La Ninas tend to be snowier with severe (albeit brief) cold dumps into the SW US and Southern Plains. -PDO was roughly 1947-1976 -AMO was roughly 1964-1994 Some pretty severe and unusual cold-ENSO winters in the brief -PDO/-AMO period - ala 1964-65, 1966-67, 1967-68, 1970-71, 1971-72, 1973-74, 1974-75, 1975-76. La Nina has a reputation for dryness out here. That's largely true, but if the tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific remain cold, I'd imagine the air over the deserts would get exceptionally dry to the point that someone out here would see a winter with sporadic near to record cold lows. January 1971 got to -17F ln Albuquerque in a January that isn't even that cold if you look at the records - that month was nuts.

One thing I've never seen on here is what is the response if the subsurface is completely neutral? Does everything just go more chaotic? Or maybe the PDO takes over? Or momentum from the prior pattern continues? I think the subsurface could be pretty dead-on neutral by mid-winter.

We're heading into a pretty severe heat wave locally for late August. I've never really found much predictive in local June data for the upcoming winter. Wet Junes can be active in Oct/Nov, which ties in well with my idea for the cold season. But June doesn't matter for Dec-Feb. July was a bit warm but fairly average for temps/precip. August has the least temperature variation in absolute terms over the past 100 years. So when it is unusually hot or cold for the month I pay attention. Hottest La Nina Augusts (Mean High): 1938, 1973, 1983, 1995, 2011, 2020 Hottest Augusts, with similar July 2024 (93.5F): 1973, 1983, 1995, 2011, 2020 Hottest Augusts, with similar June 2024 (92.5F): 2011, 2020 Need to see how August/September plays out locally. But I suspect this will go down as both a pretty hot Summer locally, and a pretty wet Summer. Unusual to get both in one year. 2010 had a completely different distribution of heat, but it was wet/hot. 2011 and 2020 both had major cold shots in September. September 2020 was a major preview of the late winter cold shot that destroyed Texas. My highs/lows for Sept 2020 - average high for Sept 9 is 84 or so. 2020-09-07 96 66 81.0 7.8 0 16 0.00 0.0 0 2020-09-08 80 42 61.0 -11.9 4 0 0.19 0.0 0 2020-09-09 47 40 43.5 -29.1 21 0 0.37 0.0 0 2020-09-10 55 42 48.5 -23.8 16 0 T 0.0 0 The first repeat showed up again October 2020 with the MJO cycle repeating. The airport had 4.4" of snow, although most of the city away from the airport had 5-10". All fell during a period when average highs are ~65F, and following multiple days in the 70s/80s. 2020-10-22 80 47 63.5 7.6 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-10-23 73 46 59.5 4.1 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-10-24 77 40 58.5 3.5 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-10-25 73 38 55.5 0.9 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-10-26 39 19 29.0 -25.2 36 0 0.16 2.9 0 2020-10-27 34 19 26.5 -27.3 38 0 0.06 1.3 4 2020-10-28 46 27 36.5 -16.9 28 0 0.02 0.2 1 December 2011 was also extremely cold locally. 2011-12-06 30 9 19.5 -18.8 45 0 T T 0 2011-12-05 27 14 20.5 -18.1 44 0 0.02 1.0 1 2011-12-07 38 17 27.5 -10.6 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-12-25 36 17 26.5 -9.3 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-12-24 38 18 28.0 -7.9 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-12-04 37 26 31.5 -7.4 33 0 T 0.2 T 2011-12-03 39 26 32.5 -6.7 32 0 0.10 0.7 1 2011-12-23 36 23 29.5 -6.4 35 0 T 0.1 1 2011-12-26 43 16 29.5 -6.3 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-12-11 42 20 31.0 -6.2 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-12-08 45 19 32.0 -5.9 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-12-10 42 22 32.0 -5.4 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-12-12 36 28 32.0 -5.0 33 0 0.24 T 0 2011-12-02 40 30 35.0 -4.5 30 0 0.03 0.2 0 2011-12-20 38 26 32.0 -4.0 33 0 0.00 0.0 1 2011-12-21 41 23 32.0 -4.0 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-12-22 41 24 32.5 -3.4 32 0 0.01 0.7 0 2011-12-09 45 24 34.5 -3.1 30 0 0.00 0.0 0

The tropical Atlantic isn't really that warm right now, and seems to be cooling relative to averages. Waters by Indonesia aren't super warm either. Tropical Indian Ocean / Nino 4 are pretty warm - but I can't imagine the RONI thing will be of any use if the non-Nino global tropical oceans are moving toward neutral. Warmest oceans v. average temps right now are far North Atlantic, Med, and then by Japan. Beaches off NC are warmer than anywhere off West Africa by SSTs. All the bullshit about this being some kind of incredible hot Summer for the entire country has magically vanished in recent days and weeks. I wonder why. Actually been pretty cool for a while in the middle third of the US. My guess is we're already seeing the dominant and recessive patterns for the winter. Pattern one is dominant heat West/East thirds of the continental US with cold waves of varying severity and duration in the middle third of the US. We've seen this in July/Aug at times. Pattern two is weaker cold in the Northern Plains and Northwest, with the rest of the US warm (see May/June). If September reverts to one of those two patterns, I think it's likely we continue to see those two patterns dominant in the cold season. CFS currently has average temps, perhaps implying weak cold, in the Northern Plains for September. A blend of the two gives a pretty conventional La Nina look, but the magic is figuring out if the cold in the Central US or the Northern Plains / NW is dominant. Actually think there is a decent case for highs off the NW / NE coasts to be stronger than normal, which would flood the Central US with frequent cold snaps in between warm rebounds, while the rest of the US is mostly warm all winter.

Anti-1976 looks OK for August at this point.

I suspect the extreme rain event for the East, in this time frame (August) is a useful signal for the winter. But I haven't looked at it yet.

May-July looks a bit like a blend of 1999, 2020, 2022 globally at 500 mb.

Canadian has a lot of the US by the Mississippi river cold for the next three months. Nice end to the Summer for a lot of that part of the country. Canada is shown pretty cold for the winter too. La Nina depicted much weaker than before. Just about dead in February, which is how 2016-17 went. WPO looks fairly negative at times which would prevent Central/Western Canada from getting flooded with 50 degree Pacific air in the winter.

I have a fairly coherent analog group that's been working pretty well. Anyone else?

I'm hoping one of these years ends up like 2013-14. Traditional Nino 3.4 measures get to 26.2C / -0.3C or whatever. But RONI is much lower, but it ends up acting like a Neutral even though the relative basis implies it's a Nina. If you all got 2-3x snow out of that kind of outcome I think everyone on here would permanently lose interest in the relative measures.

Anti 1976-77 and 1986-87 (flip of a -QBO, Weak/Mod El Nino, with low solar, +PDO, -AMO conditions)

This is probably a good winter for flipping conditions from anti-logs. Just flip a weak El Nino, with a -QBO, low-solar, and very +PDO, -AMO conditions. 1976: Weak El Nino, -QBO, Solar Min, PDO+ (+1.5), -AMO 1986: Weak El Nino, -QBO, Solar Min, PDO+ (+1.8), -AMO Anti 1976, 1986 blend (-7 to +7 scale) As a sanity check, you can see it is already working to some extent. June had the non-flipped 1976 and 1986 work as a better match, which makes sense to me as the QBO / ENSO state just flipped in July really. Anti 1976-77 and 1986-87 isn't a very cold winter, but it's probably one of the coldest Feb-Apr periods on record for the US.

I'd like to see you change the color scheme by the North Pole. I doubt it is all below average? Otherwise this is a very useful product if you can update it easily. There are a lot of datasets for doing SST maps like this one. I would also add the baseline used. It looks like 1991-2020 to me but I can't prove it. I would also add in the total (spatially weighted) SST warmth v. the baseline period as an index. Maybe the tropical warmth (23N-23S) too v. a baseline. I like the rectangular maps and automatically de-weight the lower/higher latitudes because the Earth is spherical. But a spherical representation would probably also do well.

CPC has the US pretty cold in the 6-10 and 8-14 period. It's already been pretty cold in the interior of the continent. We're close to trending behind the very late La Nina development of 2017-18 at this point. My guess is we'll eventually see SSTs at the surface drop off like a rock for a brief period, and then a flat lining and reversal will start shortly thereafter. We'll hit the La Nina SST thresholds for several months, but not the duration for an official La Nina - that's my guess. All the bitching I see in the news lately has been about how hot it has been. But it really seems like a strange month to complain about it in the US. At best parts of the US will be very warm and parts will be very cold. La Nina typically coincides with the Atlantic acting like it is an El Nino (a big warm stripe by the equator). We have a big cold stripe in the Atlantic at the equator. So I'm still fairly skeptical of a huge season. A relatively low number of storms that are very powerful, and a normal number of weak short-lived storms is at least as likely as a hyperactive season (that would see many powerful and weak storms).

Dead on match for the high ACE years so far in June (not). I'm sure the season will have active periods but I'm still pretty skeptical of 200+ ACE.

The composite above for the ACE seasons is completely wrong. Some of the ESRL sites have winters tied to the final year of the monthly period, others have the winter tied to the start. This is the actual composite of the recent highest ACE years. The idea is much higher than normal pressure over the SW and West. Cold drains into the East.