so_whats_happening

Quick Update on Subsurface via TAO with hovmolllers about over the same time period. Does look like we finally are starting to see possibilities of enhanced trades over the central and eastern Pac as mentioned early.

Rough lol

Month to date we see this is not terribly far off, especially with these plots being low reliability. Much higher heights over the north pole though which is throwing some differences in looks. Much warmer in the east than I had originally thought thought the cold shots earlier in the month would have been more pronounced, oh well you live and you learn.

This is about as typical as it gets for summer though. I will say this is a bit earlier then we typically see these temps in the East/ Mid Atlantic, we usually wait until right around the 4th of July to mid July to really set in the heat. Surprisingly the dew points across the country are not too bad right now not use to seeing dews points in the mid 50's like this in June with a heat dome nearby. Since we barely have a noticeable wave with the MJO I would not be surprised if the pattern kind of recycles on itself for the foreseeable future. We essentially dropped in null around 4/5, I used la nada since technically this where we are still there. I could see by beginning of July we may start to change things up a little maybe before a reset mid to late July as always still rather early though.

Nothing as of yet they still seem to be having some issues. I hope this can be resolved by the end of the summer but have this feeling we may not see it this go around of ENSO. It will be interesting to see as we get toward the end of summer if we can start to enhance trades at all, right now that is a piece that seems to be lacking specifically over the East/ Central Pac.

I wonder if this will have an influence on the development of the La Nina at all again typically you would want an Atlantic El Nino with a Pacific La Nina and vice versa but I still do wonder if the the WPAC still being rather warm is playing a role in shifting how things set up. Lets give it to the end of July to see if this holds or strengthens in any meaningful way. I think it is still too early to call it a dud of a season for hurricanes and development of La Nina. Personally Im rooting for a neutral year but if the La Nina pattern really takes hold could easily see low end moderate via ONI.

Thanks that is where I meant, Baffin Bay. For some reason that completely slipped my mind, appreciate the correction.

This is a visual/graphical perspective for folks for each region. I am kind of surprised to see the Kara sea region holding a bit more ice than past seasons (at least of recent) for this time of year. One thing for sure that seems to be helping it out is the snow in the surrounding lands has not melted out yet so another visual of how snow impacts the overall health of the ice into summer time. Snow near the Chukchi/ ESS region also holding on a bit. https://cryospherecomputing.com/regional.html Things may try to steady out a bit coming up here in the CAA and Beaufort regions maybe leading to less overall decline but that region is looking rather ragged. Is the Labrador sea grouped in with CAA data?

Going to bump Boston to 100 instead of 97 and ORD to 97 instead of 95 if I read the little note correctly.

Sound advice and looking back after being out of school for nearly 9 years I can say I don't regret it one bit but it is tough out there trying to push into certain sectors. I would say don't be afraid to look outside the box so to speak as you may find something you never would have thought to be fruitful but has treated you well through the years. The bold is by far the most important thing I would ever recommend to anyone pursuing the degree. About to start in a program for my masters and hope to be able to get the next leg up needed to push further into Meteorology. Network, Network, Network!

I do remember this winter, was the first winter I remember having severe weather in February (actually had nickel size hail falling and accumulate on the ground) to getting a 18" snowstorm a month later. Was definitely a roller coaster and that seems to be the case going forward at least in terms of what happens around the mid atlantic. We have really really warm periods or really really cold periods (nothing seems too sustained) and really snowy periods or nothing at all and flooded by rainstorm after rainstorm. Again looking locally only, we do not seem to be able to properly keep the ground frozen for a long period of time anymore. We do get a hard freeze but when temps in the middle of winter don't have a sustained low below 20* for more than a few days it becomes rather hard to keep a solid frozen ground. This rather warm low also makes it a bit difficult sometimes with these systems that have us right along the boundary. What use to be the rain/snow line around 95 has definitely pushed back further NW compared to say just 15 years ago. Much more in the way of mixing situations around my locale when we would manage just to be able to squeak out an all snow event. Just a few things I have noticed more so over the last probably 10 or so years. This is not to say we have never experienced this just that it seems to be happening of more frequency. Working at BWI for almost the last 9 years we have had pretty bad snowfall ever since the 15-16 winter and the only reason we got something decent then was because of that monster snowstorm in January of 2016. The last close to average snowfall was 2018-19 with 18.3". We have had quite a few extremely low snowfall years of recent (from about 2000 area on) when they would occur maybe once a decade before. There does tend to be a noticeable decline in snowfall after these heat spikes have occurred, but unfortunately snowfall can have rather wild swings down here. https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf

Seems like they still are having some data not come in properly. I hope as well this gets straightened out by end of summer.

Yea you typically dont have a cooling in the EPAC and the Atlantic. I wonder if this has to do with the ever resilient warmth around the maritime throwing things off a bit. From looking at some of the past Nina/Nino episodes typically you have a warming EPAC with a cooling WPAC and Atlantic and vice versa when entering Nina state. Since the WPAC just has not cooled maybe we are starting to see a different setup take place? As always a bit too early to tell what will come about.

Cant post the loop of the Euro because of the file size being just too big, results are fairly similar.

That is some impressive forecasted movement to say the least.

Anyway here is a little update on the subsurface for the developing La Nina. Just about a months worth of visuals spanning about 4 days in between images. Ill continue this as we go into fall and sporadically update. Also a look a hovmollers with finally a weak moving MJO wave.

Is it possible the reduction of sulfur based fuels are finally coming home to roost? China stopped using heavily sulfur based fuels back in 2017 so it is very possible it will start to play catch up to the extreme levels we have seen in the Atlantic and continually grow with time. Time will tell of course. This will largely create even more disconnect between the tropics and subtropics over time and could very well start to show a lower overall named storm/ hurricane/typhoon count as we go through time as the atmosphere tries to rebalance itself out in this new regime. Just some food for thought while things are still kind of early for the season.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +.6 +.7 +.9 +.5 +1 +1.2 +1.5 +1.5 +1 100 98 97 95 99 102 99 117 95

Just for comparison sake 97-98 compared to 23-24. Winter 500mb seemed pretty spot on as far as placement with key features of course intensities varied spring however does have some similarities thus far but not all the same. Should be interesting to see how we continue into summer.

Here was the 500mb pattern from 2/28-5/28 Here is the preceding 3 month period when we were in full swing Nino territory (11/28-2/28) Changes but notably the ridging has indeed pushed further east into the north Pacific so we may start to see a cooling in time of the WPAC? Especially if we do have a decent typhoon season but yet to be seen as of now. Which I would guess we eek out a typical WPAC season given we are transitioning to La Nina status.

Here is the 90 day SST bonkers amount of warm anomalies showing up just south of the Aleutians. This will change over time since there is a 12mb file limit on posts.

Yea the idea should be that an extremely active typhoon season should start to cool these waters but the waters only cooled for about a 2-3 month period (if that) before rebounding quite substantially. I also do not know what it will take for this to break and even more surprising was the fact we were near super levels for an El Nino typically we should have had an above average if not extremely active season, we had what was more of a typical average season if not even a more below average season for the WPAC. One thing of note was that we did not have a lot of strong recurving typhoons last year most were weak when they did recurve so maybe that played a role? In fact we just had our first system form a couple days ago which is close to the later start timeframes we have seen for the WPAC typhoon season. Surprisingly most after some of the extremely active season of strong/super El Ninos. 1st- 1983 June 8th 2nd- 1984 June 7th 3rd- 1998 May 28th 4th- 2016 May 25th 5th- 2024 May 22nd

Since ACE has been brought up quite a bit figured I would add this as well: (Named/ Hurricanes/ Major) https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic 1949: 16/7/2 96 ACE 1954: 16/7/3 104 ACE 1964: 13/7/5 153 ACE 1970: 10/5/2 40 ACE 1973: 8/4/1 48 ACE 1983: 4/3/1 17 ACE 1988: 12/5/3 103 ACE 1992: 7/4/1 76 ACE 1995: 19/11/5 227 ACE 1998: 14/10/3 182 ACE 2005: 28/15/7 245 ACE 2007: 15/6/2 74 ACE 2010: 19/12/5 165 ACE 2016: 15/7/4 141 ACE 2020: 30/13/6 179 ACE You can click on each year too to see the tracking map to see what years had solid landfalls. It is interesting to note 1970-71 had a solid cold spill into the US even with low ACE but high solar. 2010-11 had nice cold across the country but large blocking low solar and high ACE. There are definitely odd ball years that arise.

Agree on 1949-50, just had a completely different subsurface going on than any of these other years. 20-21 wasn't too bad of a year think the low solar really helped that year out a lot. If we are strictly going off the idea of a stronger Nino to a mod/strong Nina we take out 1970-71 and 2007-08 as while they did go to mod/strong Nina status they came off relatively weak Nino states just like 20/21 and 1949-50 did. Here is what the overall 500mb pattern looked like placement overall was still relatively similar of course the most notable difference is the Atlantic pattern as we did have a couple low solar years tossed in there (07-08,20-21). I also got a SST reconstruction for each set of years for may conditions leading into those winters. Not making conclusions which will turn out better as they both seem pretty similar just wanted to present the data with them. The one with the warmer equatorial pacific matches with the years coming off strong Ninos to strong Ninas. The cooler pacific was the group of years I had used in the previous post. Here is the current daily SST anomaly.

Again sorry for all the posts but one final one. If we combined all the years mentioned above we get not a bad look to what may be to come. Maybe warm it by about a degree?