so_whats_happening

Love it and maybe a classic is trying to set up.

I am not sold any of that we would need more indications for me to say oh yea it looks to be heading that route. Plenty of time to discuss though. Until then cold and snow rule the game potentially over the next week and change.

That is certainly interesting but placement leaves me concerned. First time in years we have a decent wave 2 production shame to see the pacific side of things weaken so much. Honestly though we are nearing February and I would not mind at this point if by mid month we push into a milder pattern into spring. I love snow but extending it into march and even april is not fun.

Yea im not so sure it is fully necessary but would be nice to see an increase in overall precip across the country that a +PDO tends to bring.

It certainly is but man this cold coming in is something else would not be surprised if we face single digit highs thrown in there next week and lows could be at or below 0. We face a relaxation period I want to say the beginning of February ( around the first weekend?) before a potential reload to the pattern. Also need to watch the storm threat from such a retreat of cold. That subsurface warm pool has not budged for almost 2 months now and is moderating things further east. This seems like we go warm neutral into next fall/winter.

Fun 1 month SSTA map. I'm impressed how much ice has been able to form in the Bering Sea this year.

Ill wait until my heating bill starts to reflect these notions of warmth and sustained warmth above 50 is on the way.

Always does after 240hrs whether it be La Nina or El Nino. I would not look past 240 in any regard not sure what is going this year with models having such wild swings but they are not even in lock step with each other past 96 hrs.

I applaud you for taking the advice and using a single source for both. I still don't like the SSTA-Global map but that is of my own. Do you happen to have the site to see the depth of the warmth within this region or is that just a twitter thing? I do find this year interesting even though we are in the Nina like atmospheric pattern/ base state it is not typical for us to see systems (in this particular pattern) going up the coast with little affect from a SER feature especially since we are entering mid to late January. This would and should be a time period where we see systems running right into the lakes almost similar to the a few days ago but over the next week and change we look to have this Nino like pattern evolve something is just off about this year so far. The -PDO is 100% responsible still for the lack of precip in the east and SE how long that lasts will another interesting thing to watch over the next couple months. I personally would have thought by now we would at least be touching near average monthly precip totals.

This may the response from the EWB Don was talking about a cooling of 3.4 (briefly) and a warming further east (potentially also briefly?). Sustainability unsure but would at least look to allow a MJO wave to past through weak. What concerns me still within the subsurface is the persistent cold pocket 140W roughly 150meters below the surface. That has a very persistent feature over the last ~4 years, even during the Nino event.

I dont follow online meteorologists because social media is a cancer that being said this go around might be interesting. Let's see how the EPAC evolves over the next few weeks. This would give credence for a weak phase 8 and jump to 1 and eventually 2/3.

Location is also extremely important for where these anomalies exist. https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/ While the tropics are exerting more of a El Nino flair which may very well be enhancing some of these cold dumps horse to mid latitudes have not yet caught up.

Im not a fan of cherry picking charts. I remember rather well that CDAS 3 years ago during the Nino event was showing SSTs in the moderate to low end strong sector (roughly 1.3-1.5C above average) when almost every other (OISST, ERSST, CRW, etc.) was showing the waters near upper end strong. Now we use it to show La Nina? Come on with that. Honestly if you are going to show these types of charts in either picture stick to one source.

This shows some pretty bad forecasts. Late December is the first set of images and the latter is as we close in on mid month.

I am honestly on the fence with it. Typically we only see a full destruction of the SPV 1-2 times a decade. I have a feeling we may have to wait but hope I am wrong.