so_whats_happening

Here are just some comparisons to this year so far, use the info as you will.

Im not sure I understand what he is trying to say here in the bold.

We are starting to see the Indian ocean set up with respect to wind anomalies the El Nino like response. The kicker so far has been the lack of westerlies getting too far east and the still (weak overall) enhanced easterlies across Nino 1+2. 2023 featured a fairly broad area of westerly anomalies across 1+2 and eastern 3 around this time so it makes me think this may end up being more Central Pac oriented versus East Pac but plenty of time to discuss. I do wonder how we impact the hurricane season coming up with atmospherically we seem to be taking our time transitioning out of the Nina like state.

For reference this was the hovmollers 850mb u wind anomaly look leading into the 23-24 Nino event. If we do indeed get the westerlies over that warm pool around the dateline we should start to push the ocean to Warm neutral territory. Ill wait to see if the AAM does want to switch things up going forward strength of the event is still in question but it should be safe to say we get to at least warm if not weak Nino status by summer. I would like to see some actual propagation of the anomalies and not have them just sit west of the dateline like we have seen the last 2 months.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 4.2 3.9 2.9 3.8 3.4 3.8 4 2.7 .8

There does seem to be some surface connection trying to show up in the longer range when this does occur so I would not be surprised to get a blocky colder pattern as we head to mid month. Ill enjoy the warmth ahead of it though!

I guess it will finally 'split' coming up here, I feel a little too late anyway for any big fun but whatever Many have gotten solid snows this year. As far as a final warming it does not completely obliterate the SPV coming up here so technically it is still intact in some way. When you start to lose the idea of any cohesiveness of the SPV then it is considered done which does not look like it through at least mid March. Typically the final warming happens from the last week of March through 3rd week of April but as we know can happen before or after that timeframe. Sorry been on vacation starting to bring things back to normal for the work week coming up. Edit: Wanted to add this because this does show the overall structure does split besides one random layer. So this should hit the troposphere rather quick. https://www.stratobserve.com/fcst_ell_vert

From the other thread since I did not realize this was created.

I would love to see at depth how much warm water is there now (throughout the PDO region off Japan), I think Bluewave posted about it awhile back. Im not so certain of an El Nino atmospherically we are not making a change up even with oceanic trying to make moves.

I may just say uncle if this storm Sunday does anywhere close to what some models are projecting... Anyways here is that last few weeks of TAO subsurface some interesting motions taking place. Rather than this reconfiguring the subsurface this just looks like a 'burp' of warmer waters for now as we head into spring and summer. Oceanic and atmospheric things are not aligned and look to be even further apart from each other over the next few weeks to months.

Unfortunately those 10 or so days were not all that fun for here. Eastern NC though I'm sure was just in love with this pattern lol. From the looks of the Nina phase 1 passage is taking place this weekend. Large cold dump with warming through much of the plains showing up. Going forward it does show cold building back up into Canada to be unleashed again at some point maybe the last week or so of February into early March as we move into Phase 2/3?

By using that same logic the law of averages would assume we would have extensive cooler than average year(s) coming up too since we have been an endless year after year warm regime.

Honestly we haven't really needed much influence from the strat this year other than it maintaining at or below average in strength most of the season. i'd rather have the 500mb take the lead but it would have been nice to lock it in with an actual split. I will not be looking forward to a below average March and April if one were to occur this late in the season.

https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/

Vortex stretching is the term but Im still not seeing a split take hold even with the Euro to 240. It took roughly 30 days to translate to the surface in 2018 (split occurred around the first few days of February) leading to the snowfall events around presidents day and into March. Much different outlook this go around.