so_whats_happening

Oh man I feel like we go through this every winter. Warmings occur all the time this is not a new occurrence by any means. I do like to see there is some connection through the layers to show maybe some extended connection as we go through time but anything past 240hr is typically a crapshoot call even with something like the stratosphere which doesn't tend to have too much change. My biggest issue with the use of RONI being implemented what if for some reason this process does actually switch up and ONI does become more representative than RONI are we going to switch back to using ONI data as reliable indication of Nina/Nino severity? To me RONI is like the equivalency of saying well if we take out the warming of the last 50-100 years in something like air temperature (just an example) to show that in fact temps would have been cooler during this time period to me means nothing. Ok we have deduced that it is warmer now than in the past. The processes that are involved with ENSO/ IOD/ PDO/ AMO have not seemingly changed, they all still evolve in the same manner. Are we trying to say that RONI is showing enhancement of La Ninas specifically? Are you and bluewave stating that because RONI showed -1.12 last winter for DJF that the winter acted like a moderate La Nina versus cold neutral? I mean just taking a quick glance at years of similar ONI where we never officially hit Nina status by measurements (some awfully close like last year). I did not match scales so forgive me on that. Only difference I see is a slightly more poleward low position in the pacific. I feel this is more of a PDO situation.

This is turning into a nice wave 1 displacement event as we go into the end of the month. Shame we lose the -NAO signal and it is not allowed to grow with depth. Here is the 50mb Euro 240hr forecast for the SPV we did not have the classic approach of a Scandinavian high retrograding into the NAO domain we typically see that helps enhance a wave 2 response so the -NAO is rather shallow in the atmosphere. Now the question becomes then after this relaxation period in the troposphere do we see a re-emergence of the -NAO as aloft ridging(through the strat) gets pushed over into the NAO domain and we somehow get a connection through the layers? This has been a theme of these events (this one still looks rather mild) over the last 5 or so years. This is not looking like a significant warming event as of now. It is pretty rare to see something major this early I would look closer to the new year and there after for potential if we can maintain a weakened SPV. Sorry they loaded as 2 pdfs versus visuals. Heat flux.pdf Zonal wind.pdf

This is the wonderful thing of strong blocks and poleward flux. Ill have to take a look back and see what exactly caused the flow to buckle so much over the last 2-3 weeks.

Lol parade of storms you would be lucky to get one maybe two good KU style storms in a season during the performative Nino style years. My goal this year is one 1 foot snowstorm and move on. Who knew that La Ninas produced quite the rains starting to show up for central and southern California in the medium range.

If you don't wish to post photos it is fine, I do wish you would at least reference the sites so that people could see what you are mentioning is all.

DCA NYC BOS ORD ATL IAH DEN PHX SEA 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 .8

If you are going to show a snowfall coverage map you need to include the departure from average as well. Blocky but gets the point across. The first shows departures from climo and the second shows what climo should look like this time of year. Based on September 1970- August 2000. https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2025&ui_day=302&ui_set=2

Ehh he put words together to still make him relevant that is about all I got from it.

I still do not know why you guys focus so much on this guy. If you have issues with what he says call him out on the platform he is posting this information on.

Love the confidence but have my doubts To add according to the post by GAWX earlier the IOD normalized was positive in 1967

I equate this IOD event to something similar like 2019/20 season. That IOD event was on par to some the most intense Nino events we have seen in the last ~30 years (1997/98, and 2015/16) yet when it came to oceanic temps we hit weak Nino status that year. If you look at the subsurface during this time you also had a downwelling kelvin wave in September and October making it look like we were about to really see this event go. I think the IOD in this case simply made it so the Nina like conditions stayed around just enough versus us pushing into weak Nino territory this year. I will say though subsurface on this event is deteriorating rather fast though there is a small chance we hit a trimonthly of about -0.6.

This is starting to get interesting though the 850mb wind anomalies are starting to show an impressive WWB event taking shape. This happened last year as well around late November early December where it effectively put a hold on the Nina growing and helped induce the EPAC warming along the equator with a secondary event taking shape at the beginning of February further enhancing the Nino state in the EPAC. Let us see if something similar is occurring though about a month in advance compared to last year. Here is the TAO data for the last month and a half.

This is just the wake from Priscilla not sure it really strengthens much beyond that. You can still see the wake from Neoguri from the middle to late September just east of Japan.

Fascinating! Really cool chart.

There is a fairly large system being modeled going into this weekend right over the warm pool region. I think there is forecasted 60-80knot winds already starting to show up across the area. Should definitely help continue carving out the cooler waters and moving that warm pool. As for the Atlantic there is still a decent NW Atlantic warm tongue around Nova Scotia so we should continue to see ridging potential in the region and add the risk of things at times connecting with the SE ridge. Im still rather hopeful that average snowfall can be achieved this year across many areas. RMM plots never fully grasp the intensity of such waves but regardless it should be pretty intense wave to start things off for fall. We are a little off where we were last year at this time for MJO but it looks to follow a similar path and intensity as we did through October last year. Here are the SST anomalies last year as we ended summer and went into fall. The PDO last year had a double dip take place and October values, at the time, were some of the lowest on record.