so_whats_happening

Saved for April final tally and Jan-Apr totals Below will be forecasts for May. Just as a reminder to have forecasts done by May 1st 6z. Penalties will be every 6 hours after 6z of 1% off total at the end of the month of May.

Updates through 4/18 DCA NYC BOS ORD ATL IAH DEN PHX SEA +8.2 +5.6 +3.1 +6 +7.6 +4 +3 +5.5 +0.3 +6 +4.5 +2.5 +5 +6 +3.5 +2.5 +4.5 +.5 Most places in the east and plains should cool slightly from these values above over the next couple days and essentially remain steady to the end of the month. In bold are the values I would expect to see for these locations by the end of the month to give you an idea where we may stand. I will add normal and consensus at the end of the month and update the January-April totals to reflect it as well. I also will tally up the snowfall forecast we had this past season as we progress through mid May to make sure we don't get any surprise snows in the front range over the next month.

Well this was quite the surprise to see https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ Feb/Mar MEI at -1, responses were starting to show in March but I will be curious if Mar/Apr will start to move toward neutral at least. While oceanic response seems to be there atmospherically something is off.

The depiction of the subsurface alone would make me think at this early stage we are further west than two of the stronger Nino events in the last 30 years.

Here are some depictions for specific years in comparison to this year.

Unfortunately had a large gap in data for TAO recently but here is the 2N-2S TAO depiction of the subsurface. Reminder that CPC and TAO are different in coverage but overall represent things similarly.

2023 OHC for reference

Happy Easter. Here is a look at the monthly forecast, best of luck everyone. I will try to update consensus and normal into season totals and future updates, for consensus I just did median of the forecasts for each city. This seemed to be as close as I could get to consensus scoring as Roger did. I'll try to figure out how he did persistence going forward. Welcome Ga_Wx hope to see you more often. Starting in May we will continue on with forecasts submissions before May 1st 6z as we have done before. I will be a little lenient on penalties of 1% off every 6 hours late at first. Look to June forecast to be the time frame we do MAX temp forecasts for summer.

Seattle forecast 0.4 or 0.6?

Not a problem thanks for the forecast. @donsutherland1 @MJO812 we will be starting May forecasts to be due back at May 1st by 6z and each month after for the future. Would love to see everyone still participate but of course life happens. I will do my best to make it as close to what Roger was trying to do for these contests as we go along.

Awesome if you have time to drop a forecast this weekend we will keep late penalties out for this one.

Forecast by 6z 4/3 essentially 3 hours from now. Going forward we will be doing this on 1st of each month by 6z.

@dmillz25 @donsutherland1 @MJO812 @yoda let me know if you would like to still continue doing the monthly temp forecasts.

I did it for April 3rd @6z to get back into the swing of things but come May and onward we will go back to by the 1st at 6z.

Before I forget mine: DCA: +2.4 NYC: +1.9 BOS: +0.8 ORD: +0.8 ATL: +1.5 IAH: +1.7 DEN: +1.3 PHX: +0.9 SEA: +0.4