so_whats_happening

The depiction of the subsurface alone would make me think at this early stage we are further west than two of the stronger Nino events in the last 30 years.

Here are some depictions for specific years in comparison to this year.

Unfortunately had a large gap in data for TAO recently but here is the 2N-2S TAO depiction of the subsurface. Reminder that CPC and TAO are different in coverage but overall represent things similarly.

2023 OHC for reference

Happy Easter. Here is a look at the monthly forecast, best of luck everyone. I will try to update consensus and normal into season totals and future updates, for consensus I just did median of the forecasts for each city. This seemed to be as close as I could get to consensus scoring as Roger did. I'll try to figure out how he did persistence going forward. Welcome Ga_Wx hope to see you more often. Starting in May we will continue on with forecasts submissions before May 1st 6z as we have done before. I will be a little lenient on penalties of 1% off every 6 hours late at first. Look to June forecast to be the time frame we do MAX temp forecasts for summer.

Seattle forecast 0.4 or 0.6?

Not a problem thanks for the forecast. @donsutherland1 @MJO812 we will be starting May forecasts to be due back at May 1st by 6z and each month after for the future. Would love to see everyone still participate but of course life happens. I will do my best to make it as close to what Roger was trying to do for these contests as we go along.

Awesome if you have time to drop a forecast this weekend we will keep late penalties out for this one.

Forecast by 6z 4/3 essentially 3 hours from now. Going forward we will be doing this on 1st of each month by 6z.

@dmillz25 @donsutherland1 @MJO812 @yoda let me know if you would like to still continue doing the monthly temp forecasts.

I did it for April 3rd @6z to get back into the swing of things but come May and onward we will go back to by the 1st at 6z.

Before I forget mine: DCA: +2.4 NYC: +1.9 BOS: +0.8 ORD: +0.8 ATL: +1.5 IAH: +1.7 DEN: +1.3 PHX: +0.9 SEA: +0.4

From January scores done by Roger, February done by wxdude64, and March done by myself (just above) here are the standings as of the end of March. I hope this is all correct and this should become much smoother as we move forward. Bolded are the tops scores in each category. The asterisk is for months that were missed. We have quite the grouping going on and love to see newcomers each month. I will send out a message to folks about April who see missing thus far.

Here is the March update. Denver and Phoenix experienced unprecedented warmth for the month of March and all of us were over +5 away from actual anomalies so it resulted in a score of 0. Until I can figure out how to do Roger's 60 rule for extremely anomalous temperatures we will have to keep these at 0. If you find any of these numbers to be off/wrong or I missed anyone please feel free to reach out. I will add the accumulated score through the end of March in a bit. I left out Consensus and normal for now as the way i calculated it (consensus) is slightly off to how Roger had it back in January/February.

I don't know how anyone is surprised about the lack of data/products.