so_whats_happening
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About so_whats_happening
- Birthday 03/21/1991
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For results of July. Please post below September Forecasts
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It looks maybe for the time of year we will come close to the highest RONI number but overall 1982/83 takes the cake when it happened in December.
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Yea the dynamic models tend to always overdo things but with how quickly the evolution was that made sense. I have always felt statistical was the better suite as dynamic models tend to keep with how things are going at the present time moving forward which is really hard to do. The answer usually lies just above statistical model suite line. Seeing as though there are some lessening of the overall push within the last 2 weeks and some more to come I would say we coast at this point. We will come close to the overall daily peak we saw in 2015 with a near 3C but trimonthly should end up around roughly 2.5-2.7 range when all is said and done, unless we have another surprise. Given that, RONI trimonthly may end up a bit lower than 2.5 on the trimonthly more so closer to 2.2-2.3 from the perspective of NOAA calculations. Now lets see if we can get the atmosphere to represent that of a super Nino coming up this fall. There definitely seem to be limitations to overall intensity even in a warming climate, maybe if the PDO was not fighting back we could have reached those upper thresholds.
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There may be some gas left in the tank with this Nino. There is a possibility of ONI anomaly reaching near 3C if we can maintain this heat into the Oct-Dec timeframe, that will be quite the test for the next 2-3 months. Im not so sure we get much past 2.5C with RONI but will have to wait and see how the cold pool develops more. We have a nice +10 anomaly showing up and the 30C contour seems to be stopped at just west of 150W currently and some thermocline changes trying to show up toward the tale end of the gif. This is probably the bounce back after the KW in mid to late July and enhancement of trades again as we get into the first two weeks of September. This has been fascinating to watch that even this pronounced of an ENSO event has not produced much in the way of +IOD yet and helped in switching over to a +PDO state even for a short amount of time. I think the most impressive thing thus far has been how quickly this built up the temps and not necessarily the temps themselves. This will be documented as one of the fastest growing ENSO events we have seen with those record WWB's we saw early on. Now the question comes does this as some models try to produce even more strengthening or do we continue to see stagnation and then a decline. A lot of answers will show up in the next month.
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It did in 1997 just a few weeks earlier this go around. I don't yet know why but feel this will peak earlier than expected.
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Unfortunately the buoy system TAO uses is being fixed right now so a lot is being missed past the dateline.
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Looking through each year individually some years rhyme but you can't expect a 1:1 situation. 1991, 2015, 2023 stuck out the most as being similar to the northern hemisphere pattern we are currently seeing in the 3 month interval.
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The only noticeable thing is the increase in moisture across my region specifically, still not enough to break the drought fully but working on it. The Caribbean has exceptional shear right now which is pretty typical of Nino (they are also below 30N so more in tune with what I had stated in my last post. There is quite an abundance of shear in that region that even areas of the East Pacific are being affected by this from about southern Mexico to Panama. Here are the 500mb patterns for MJJ leading into the strong to super Nino category based on RONI (since this is what we are using now). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ I was reluctant to use 2023-24 since in RONI terms was only a moderate Nino (borderline strong) and comparing it to this year so far. There are some similarities this year to those past years in the southern hemisphere but overall the northern hemisphere seems to be opposite.
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https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data goes back to 1948 monthly at just 30mb but was done being updated with a lot of other things back at the end of February 2026. Also have this pdf from awhile back again unfortunately have not seen this updated in a long time https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo_wind_pdf.pdf Updated site for ^^^ https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/english/807.php
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It is also very interesting to see the MJO just stuck in Phase 6 for nearly a month (with the forecast through the 25th). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Looking back at 97-98 we were null to even having a La Nina-esque lean to the MJO through summer, I get it less influential in the summer. https://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring Unfortunately with the cuts to data I can not find reanalysis of VP to prior time periods to match with current times, since current times are not being updated.
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Yea we are still lacking quite a bit with the AAM into the northern hemisphere it just cuts off right 30N. So the Nino is thriving in the tropics to subtropics and the southern hemisphere but in the north it is struggling besides little bits and pieces that show up regionally. https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/
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This has been fascinating to see over the last month in the movement of the warm anomalies in the north pacific. Also I believe I remember seeing bluewave point this out before but you can see the warming of the waters ahead of Dolphin.
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The closest examples I could find since the 50's (unless my eyes are deceiving me). 1983/84 region 1+2 stayed warm through at least early winter but was a La Nina at about -1ish status. 1986-1988 timeframe we had the double Nino event but they were about moderate to strong status before we cooled down. 1991-92 went to neutral and had a bit of a lagged 1+2, went cool neutral the following winter (92-93) and then 93-94 had a warm neutral. 1997-98 went pretty well into Nina mode but was west while Nino 1+2 remained neutral before tumbling at the end 98-99 winter. 2015-16 cooled through most regions while 1+2 warmed as we went into winter of 17/18 other areas being cool neutral. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii Some correlation to a weaker Nina state but not necessarily the only outcome. It really I think depends just how the Nino state breaks down what will determine the following year. Would be interesting to look at the wind patterns for the transitions of each of these years. Edit: Again all this assuming the 1+2 does not exactly cool down which is something we will have to watch as we head into fall.
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We are finally seeing an appreciable cold pool form so we may be at the peak of WWB events in the next month, doesn't mean the WWBs can not continue but the severity of them should start to wane soon. At this rate I am also not so sure we go right into a La Nina and a deep one at that, of course time will tell.
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Medium to long range in every model are trying really hard to disrupt the consistent ridging episodes near Japan and east of there. Let's see how things shape up mid to late month.
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