so_whats_happening

July DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA + 1.5 +1.6 +2.1 +1.8 +0.8 +0.4 +.2 +.9 +1.7 May change a little later but Ill make a note if it does.

No worries here is the other site I used for the in comparison years. https://solen.info/solar/index.html Im sure I have more elsewhere in my bookmarks but there are a lot of saved bookmarks to go through lol

I wonder though if we put this with data about hurricanes either globally or solely the Atlantic if we can see some interesting trends come about.

Maybe for the bolded but we also just saw an extended La Nina like pattern emerge at the start of this cycle. Numbers and intensity though are two different things. We had some rather intense flares occur over the last year but numbers overall seemed to be about on par with what is near the 'average' amount based on the number of cycles we have seen. Cycle 24 started off as an El Nino and in fact had a strong Nino at that followed by another significant one just after peak. Cycle 23 also started off in an El Nino quickly to La Nina and then a moderate Nino just after peak (2002-03) so im not sure there is too much correlation going on there. Cycle 23 was double that of 24. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression I mean if we extended this all the way to 1750 we would actually be seeing while this year was active the overall numbers are still in a decline mode over the 50+ years. Wonder if start to see it trend up in the upcoming cycles?

Yea Im thinking we try 26-27 not sure on intensity but that can be determined. Here is how this cycle compares to the last few. We may be trying to go to a more active cycle in terms of sunspots since we hit our low in the prior.

Definitely was an impressive cycle looks like we are dropping off pretty decent over the last few months.

Since the water year we are still about 4-7" below average. It has only been May that has shown to be above average thus far, decently so at that. April was close but it stuck right along the 95 corridor that managed slightly above average around philly. June has been a bit of a struggle but we need the thunderstorms as we close out the month to produce about 1.5" across the area (PA and northern MD) then we should hit average and maybe slightly above but we have a ways to go before we can say the drought has been knocked out. If we manage near average the next few months we still end up below average for the water year only a tropical system will bring us closer to average or cutoff lows reigning supreme come fall.

It is just gross outside 93/76 should hit 98 today and 99 tomorrow.

Sure just feel he likes to make sure his ducks are in order. No harm no foul. The WPAC is still warm but not excessively warm as it was so chipping away at it slowly is the name of the game. I would be interested to see if the WPAC starts to fire off any tropical systems coming up here with what could be a minor WWB coming up like we saw earlier this month still no typhoon but at least things are trying to get going.

Yea there may be a random spot or two that get to 100 at least being shown right now but looks to be potentially our first official heat wave of the season, still a week+ out though so who knows. I will take this lack of heat when I can get it have not had to turn on the AC yet as we have been able to cool down at night properly. May was our first month above average rainfall wise around here in awhile the last time it happened was August of last year and the only reason was because of Debby had that not happened we probably would have gone almost 12+ months below average.

To each their own just was the first interruption I have seen since the previous Nino. The VP is weakened slightly over Maritime but still in place, though there is weak VP anoms over much of the pacific the last couple months so not sure we get a simple ENSO depiction. Like I have mentioned I could see a warm neutral scenario play out via numbers but we still will have flares of negative ENSO show up just like we had last year with a weak negative ENSO showing up with Nino flares.

See how it plays out but this is the first time in awhile we have seen a break down of the enhanced trades and the Nina like standing wave.

So sorry was on vacation DCA: 101 NYC: 97 BOS: 97 ORD: 100 ATL: 99 IAH: 105 DEN: 104 PHX: 118 SEA: 93

If we can see it start to dip into negative around 50mb this will be a good sign of an overall weaker SPV no guarantees of anything other than probably not the near record levels we just saw. A lot of things still need to come together over the next few months. Still have yet to see a tropical system in the WPAC beat out last year but looking further into data it seems like the 8th of June is the latest for tropical storm and typhoon is the 21st.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.7 +1.6 +2.1 +1.4 +1.1 +1 +2.1 +1.3 +2.1