so_whats_happening

Yea with this snowfall yesterday we are sitting at about a foot so far this season which is a little less than half of our yearly climo snowfall and so far on the month to month we are right near average amounts.

It does look like we are finally getting poleward movement of the Scandi ridging pattern the one thing we have been missing. This is key in allowing a potential split SPV pattern down the road. Lets see what happens.

I feel like people see -PNA and instantly think it is all over. Not the case when you have the PV on this side of the globe, now if the PV was on the weaker side over here and more pronounced over into Russia/Siberia totally different story. This should help keep the SE Ridge/ WAR (whichever you like to call it) at bay. This would offer up a country wide cold outbreak with the deeper values into the mountains that spill east over time. I do still expect a brief time period of average temps maybe even slightly above average to occur into the first week of February as the pattern we have had relaxes a bit and sets up into this but not seeing a torch event right now. Im excited to get more precip thrown into the region and have the chances go up of potential snow then what we have been having. We need the precip as this is supposed to be one of the wetter times of the year even if it does fall as rain, unfortunately it may cause a lot of flooding if it is indeed rain since the ground would be a solid brick and most rivers and lakes are pretty frozen over at this time before the cold outbreak.

BTW some forecasts are already showing monday lows getting to near 0 in my area. Tuesday and wednesday morning potentially below 0? I think it will moderate a bit but single digits will be some of the coldest air we have seen in a bit. Highs in the upper teens, with some showing us barely getting above 15 as a high.

Looks to me like SWFE if you can get on the cold side it would be a beautiful setup.

Social media is killing you man, take a a step away.

Ill take this whatever winter pattern. Have had snow on the ground (~1") since January 3rd just refreshed with the last two systems 3" and 1.5" bringing our year total so far to about 7" on the season. This is the longest we have had snow on the ground in quite some time, yea sure it is not feet of snow but snow regardless. Still looking for one 12"+ system to end my season and Ill happily move on maybe something will get sniffed out here within the next 2 weeks. My heating bill is saying wtf is going on right now for how 'mundane' this cold pattern is.

This is impressive to say the least. Definitely did not expect to see this 500mb look as we approach the halfway mark through the winter season.

If the trade winds forecasted continue to show west of the dateline being more anomalous than normal versus over 3 and 3.4 this will certainly keep pushing the 'Nina' waters further and further west. This will ultimately also allow for sinking air to start being more prevalent around the eastern portions of the Maritime Continent (around 5/6/7 of the MJO Phase) and a less concentrated region of lift over phase 4 region like we saw November into December. We would start to have a dual or split lifting region of 1/2/3 showing up and potentially avoiding the dreaded 4/5/6. This of course is still a few weeks out but we should start to approach close to phase 3 by the last week of January after that I am not so certain on a 4/5 swing as we go into February as many seem to be so keen on. I personally see us to have peaked with this Nina at this point unless we get some rogue constructive interference in the next 2 weeks showing up, which I have my doubts. I think what likely happens is the subsurface we currently see just maintains what we currently have and lets it slowly fade over time. These are just some thoughts popping about in my head for what could be the next 3-4weeks. On a side note this would certainly be a noteworthy situation if we somehow ended the season below average snowfall wise around here yet ended up with more snow than Boston...

Thank You!

Anyone have sea ice thickness maps and numbers everything I have bookmarked took a crap and is not accessible.

Within 240 hours now is usually my go to for a strong possibility of this occurring especially with it being the stratosphere not a whole lot of fluctuation happens at that layer within 5-7 days. 10 days you can get some minor changes in position and intensity but this is looking promising. This would throw ideas of a really warm February off a bit considering the connection of strat to 500mb.

Wait wait so CDAS is ok to use now?

Congrats @wxallannj! Great forecasting