so_whats_happening

This is a wonderful site for people to get lessons from and implore many folks to check it out. There are a few tropical courses that touch on this subject of SPV and MJO propagation that could be very useful. I believe it is still free and no student email is needed. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/

This is correct. So in QBO-E years it is fairly typical to see a disturbed SPV early on just as we are seeing in November and early December, namely a wave 1 response takes place. QBO-W years tend to have this take place around January leading to a stronger SPV (take last year as an example. The wave 1 response is due in part to a strong MJO passage through phase 3. Within about 2-3 weeks we typically see the passage through phase 7 (which is about where we are). The phase 7 is tricky though because it does not always push into a split scenario but I think we have a better chance with a much more pronounced stratospheric ridging staying in place and strength. I would like to see more negatively tilted troughs into the Atlantic to start to get more excited for that potential, these are the mechanisms to allow for poleward eddy flux versus a deflection as bluewave has noted. The Pacific has shown many negatively tilted troughs over the past few weeks hence the already well pronounced ridge. I hope we can get some type of Scandi ridging in the troposphere as we move into December. This is why I have been saying for awhile now I will wait to see that potential split scenario as we get close to the end of December but this remains to be seen. First let us actually have a push into phase 7 and see how the pattern lands. I will not be surprised to see with this displacement event a brief period of wintry weather in December (mid month area) to us quickly recovering and maybe having an early January 'thaw' type setup.

No, there is nothing to suggest it even goes above average as we move into January.

This is impressive to see though models are showing the potential destruction of the Nina like atmosphere coming up as we go into December. This really should kick into effect a downwelling kelvin wave from the warm pool sitting around 160E below the surface.

Yes there has been nothing to suggest more than a displacement event taking place. The warming overall is very muted and while the semi-permanent ridging is impressive leading to a much weakened zonal flow there is more to it than just a weakened zonal flow. The SPV is still very much intact just getting knocked around for now. This certainly feels like there is potential for a 2-3 week period of wintry like effects as we get to mid December and on due to this.

Sorry life has been something else the last week. I would like to revisit this hopefully over the weekend I get some free time to chat about this and go further. Ill take a look at the article/ journal you posted then.

This might help you out https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html

Oh man I feel like we go through this every winter. Warmings occur all the time this is not a new occurrence by any means. I do like to see there is some connection through the layers to show maybe some extended connection as we go through time but anything past 240hr is typically a crapshoot call even with something like the stratosphere which doesn't tend to have too much change. My biggest issue with the use of RONI being implemented what if for some reason this process does actually switch up and ONI does become more representative than RONI are we going to switch back to using ONI data as reliable indication of Nina/Nino severity? To me RONI is like the equivalency of saying well if we take out the warming of the last 50-100 years in something like air temperature (just an example) to show that in fact temps would have been cooler during this time period to me means nothing. Ok we have deduced that it is warmer now than in the past. The processes that are involved with ENSO/ IOD/ PDO/ AMO have not seemingly changed, they all still evolve in the same manner. Are we trying to say that RONI is showing enhancement of La Ninas specifically? Are you and bluewave stating that because RONI showed -1.12 last winter for DJF that the winter acted like a moderate La Nina versus cold neutral? I mean just taking a quick glance at years of similar ONI where we never officially hit Nina status by measurements (some awfully close like last year). I did not match scales so forgive me on that. Only difference I see is a slightly more poleward low position in the pacific. I feel this is more of a PDO situation.

This is turning into a nice wave 1 displacement event as we go into the end of the month. Shame we lose the -NAO signal and it is not allowed to grow with depth. Here is the 50mb Euro 240hr forecast for the SPV we did not have the classic approach of a Scandinavian high retrograding into the NAO domain we typically see that helps enhance a wave 2 response so the -NAO is rather shallow in the atmosphere. Now the question becomes then after this relaxation period in the troposphere do we see a re-emergence of the -NAO as aloft ridging(through the strat) gets pushed over into the NAO domain and we somehow get a connection through the layers? This has been a theme of these events (this one still looks rather mild) over the last 5 or so years. This is not looking like a significant warming event as of now. It is pretty rare to see something major this early I would look closer to the new year and there after for potential if we can maintain a weakened SPV. Sorry they loaded as 2 pdfs versus visuals. Heat flux.pdf Zonal wind.pdf

This is the wonderful thing of strong blocks and poleward flux. Ill have to take a look back and see what exactly caused the flow to buckle so much over the last 2-3 weeks.

Lol parade of storms you would be lucky to get one maybe two good KU style storms in a season during the performative Nino style years. My goal this year is one 1 foot snowstorm and move on. Who knew that La Ninas produced quite the rains starting to show up for central and southern California in the medium range.

If you don't wish to post photos it is fine, I do wish you would at least reference the sites so that people could see what you are mentioning is all.

DCA NYC BOS ORD ATL IAH DEN PHX SEA 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 1.1 2.1 2.4 2.4 .8

If you are going to show a snowfall coverage map you need to include the departure from average as well. Blocky but gets the point across. The first shows departures from climo and the second shows what climo should look like this time of year. Based on September 1970- August 2000. https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2025&ui_day=302&ui_set=2

Ehh he put words together to still make him relevant that is about all I got from it.