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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    If it's not going to be a warm Winter (EC trough), maybe the season will pick up? I also did a research last year that had +EPO's in the Winter time October on, like 300% more storms (if +EPO is coming). That's a positive and a negative to cancel/contradict low ACE vs ENSO:
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    low ACE/vs ENSO look at how it starts, over +210dm SD -PNA Rest of analogs Jan-Feb +NAO/+EPO/-PNA
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    If we have those kind of winds, it's going to be a Strong La Nina pretty quick here. I think things can even out, ACE can rebound to average, and La Nina can neutralize after 3-4 weeks of strengthening.
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    Not continued continue
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    Tell me about it. Bring back the country-wide LWX radar
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    I feel the vibe. Now for the mass extinction event
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    I think the -NAO tendency (under 10mb strong PV, the trend, etc) will default/displace to -EPO. Alaska High, -EPO. Give us a -PNA In jan and Feb and a pinch-off -EPO
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    Pushing at about +0.15-0.20 FOR THE WINTER (djfm). 0.54 SD, it looks to come in about ~+0.70 now (May-Sept), +0.16-1.24
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    My NAO predictor with 0.54 SD (DJFM NAO) has gone severely positive.
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    I was looking at this too for January and February
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    600dm -PNA coming up in 6 days.. analogs agree with my theory of a +PNA December
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    It looks like today we may see a thunderstorm.
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    La Nina's about to get a big s"lice".
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    La Nina's about to get a big s"lice" in it's central region(to warmer waters), may correlate with increased activity.
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    Actually, I expect it to moderate once the late Oct/Nov time begins. I think we'll go -PNA for the Winter, el nino tendency in the spring,etc.. the atmosphere needs to catch up. Getting bored. These guys are worth $1
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    5 rounds of +PNA load on 12z GFS ensembles
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    +PNA pattern models day 16, been correlating to no activity.
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    Moderator deleted my post that the analogs were really dry.. I like the 2017-2018 analog right now, given our strong -PDO/-PNA decadal and current +PNA.
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    Continued really strong and defined +PNA (right now) Subsurface cooling for the last month is among one of the most extreme on records, except for Strong Nino's CPC is probably -6 to -7 right now. I expect this to gradually start warming, given the N. Pacific pattern for the next 15 days. At this time of the year the trend is set for at least through February-March (la nina).
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    El Nino pattern day 15 models.
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    +PNA August's since 2000, evens out over Alaska in the Winter.
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Seems we are due after day 15, when models have an El Nino 500mb pattern until Sept1st at least..
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    mm... not long until everything catches up.
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    Still no signs of La Nina pattern at Day 15. Only -PNA that has occurred since April was under a 90N PV spinning for 10 days then dropping south (somewhat fake-PNA)
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