StormchaserChuck!

El Nino cancel and La Nina weak coming back it looks like per latest subsurface. I would say it would be interesting to see how much of that +3 in the eastern subsurface surfaces in the next few weeks, but surface doesn't matter at all, honestly. 

Check out the ridge in the GOA.. strengthens my theory about a saturated atmosphere.. days 5-15.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

There is +3 below the surface in the east, it's going to warm Nino 3 up a lot in the next few weeks. 

Since 2010, +NAO May20-Jun1:   30,15,15,11,19  

Yeah, we should average about +0.5c for ENSO right now, and it's about +0.2

Isn't that cool.. ONI peak +1.1 to +1.2 and -QBO?

Yeah, the Super Nino in 1997 broke it I think. 

Nice little subsurface configuration today.. I think we are going Moderate El Nino. 

At least you'll have a good Winter, Moderate El Nino/-QBO, the best of 8 combo's .. not. It's mechanical. You'll probably be above average. 

among others? We probably break +0.5c at the surface quickly. 

On 5/5/2021 at 12:15 PM, wxtrix said:

here are some fact-based criticism of that garbage book:

 

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Here are five statements Koonin makes in “Unsettled” that mainstream climate scientists say are misleading, incorrect or undercut by current research:

1. “The warmest temperatures in the US have not risen in the past fifty years.”

The average annual temperature in the contiguous U.S. has increased from 0.7 degrees to 1.0 degrees Celsius (1.2 to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since the start of the 20th century. The year 2020 was the fifth-warmest year in the 126-year record for the contiguous U.S. And the five warmest years on record have occurred since 2012, NOAA reports.

There is a more marked increase in nighttime lows than in daytime highs (the “warmest” temperatures) because of factors like the cooling effect of daytime aerosol pollution and soil moisture evaporation. 

2. “Most types of extreme weather events don’t show any significant change—and some such events have actually become less common or severe—even as human influences on the climate grow.”

There have been statistically significant trends in the number of heavy precipitation events in some regions. Some regions have experienced more intense and longer droughts, while in other places, droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter. Marine heatwaves, periods of extremely high ocean temperatures in specific regions, have become more than 20 times more frequent over the last 40 years due to human activity and the burning of greenhouse gases, according to a 2020 study that relied on satellite measurements of sea surface temperatures. 

3.  “Humans have had no detectable impact on hurricanes over the past century.”

In 2020, scientists detected a trend of increasing hurricane intensity since 1979 that is consistent with what models have projected would result from human-driven global warming. Rapid intensification of hurricanes has increased in the Atlantic basin since the 1980s, which federal researchers showed in 2019 is attributable to warming. A 2018 study showed that Hurricane Harvey, which hit Houston the prior year, could not have produced so much rain without human-induced climate change. That same year, a separate study showed that increased stalling of tropical cyclones is a global trend. 

4.  “Greenland’s ice sheet isn’t shrinking any more rapidly today than it was eighty years ago.”

Scientific findings indicate with high confidence that the Greenland ice sheet, the world’s second-largest land-based ice reservoir, has lost ice, contributing to sea level rise over the last two decades. And Greenland is on track to lose more ice this century than at any other time in the 12,000-year Holocene, the epoch encompassing human history, scientists reported in 2020.

The rate of ice melt in Greenland has varied widely over the decades, and there is evidence of a period of rapid melting in the 1930s that exceeded the rate of today. But the 1930s-era melt affected fewer glaciers, mostly those located entirely on land. Today’s melting involves more glaciers, most of them connected to the sea, with average ice loss more than double that of the earlier period. 

5. “The net economic impact of human-induced climate change will be minimal through at least the end of this century.

Global warming is very likely to have exacerbated global economic inequality, with the disparities between poor and wealthy countries 25 percent greater than in a world without warming, researchers concluded in 2019.

Only a limited number of studies have calculated the aggregate economic impact of climate change, not enough to place confidence in numeric results. But the data indicates with high confidence that climate change will aggravate other stressors, like inadequate housing, food or water supplies, with negative outcomes especially for the poor.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04052021/dissecting-unsettled-a-skeptical-physicists-book-about-climate-science/

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feel free to dispute these with facts, not WSJ editorials by climate deniers or blurbs from the jacket of the garbage book itself.

SPOILER ALERT:   you can't.

So what?

8%? Lame.. we are definitely going Weak El Nino by July probably. 

14/14 times the QBO went negative for the winter, and it's a Weak-Moderate El Nino so.. so. s-o

You probably aren't allowed to respond, in another dimension or something

Nice little anti-thesis of the recent cold via Arctic ice melt accelerate displacing cold in the start of warming season/opposite lol

+3 hitting the central subsurface, it's going to be a Moderate El Nino. :)

Yeah, it doesn't really get hot in the Summer anymore. I noticed a trend of snow here in April, and even said as much when it was in the 70s early in the month, It snowed April 22nd. The biggest difference I think recently is Tropical storms forming closer to Europe. (Could be hard to do some real big Winter -NAO without reverse-conditions occurring before or after.)

I don't know why the peark is casting swine but in jan 2022 we will know if it's still El Nino or going into La Nina. 

Yeah, they did spaghetti in 2004 but it was an El Nino pattern. 

I like it (+PNA)

You can see the transition in the first post on this page. Like always, the Hemisphere will transition too. 

May 2 -NAO

Yeah, it was a wet April 

warm May

warm Europe