StormchaserChuck!

-3 now in the subsurface. Developing/becoming more negative ENSO coming for Hurricane season: 2020, 2016, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2005,2001 30-15-19-19-15-28-15 

Just a really nice tripole developing

Some serious technology lol

^Love the cold pool off of New Foundland. North Atlantic is -NAO for Winter right now... interesting to see what happens. 

I agree, I would go with a weak La Nina. It will be interesting to see what happens next in the subsurface, the CPC is forecasting a big +PNA. Maybe by early August we will be saying -0.5 as the ONI peak may be as far as we get. 

Really nice La Nina coming forth.. I would like to see this strengthen a bit to predict some good SE and/or FL Hurricane hits. 

More underperforming solar min ascending

Relative min's ascending fwiw

On 7/18/2021 at 11:54 AM, CAPE said:

We lookin good. Jan even better. 

We are not average or below average with the -PNA like that.. the ocean streams are much north or something. 

18 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

One thing that gets my hopes up this winter is we're coming out of a solar minimum and historically that has led to some really snowy winters!  1965-1966, 1986-1987, 1995-1996, and 2009-2010 (1977-1978 had lagged more following the minimum)

Yeah, that's a good point. I was wondering if the highest arctic ice melt Summer since 2010 so far (this year) would help us for the Winter. My feeling is something like 2018 is a good analog, leading to Winter 18-19. 

we are either going to flood the Earth a little bit or get drier and drier.. I'm rooting for the first option. July 2018 was pretty cool, 18"

I also feel that it is connected to the Sun, That is why next years progression should be interesting. Wouldn't rule out another March-May warming like this year. 

3 hours ago, George BM said:

Regardless of your thoughts about this upcoming winter, this post actually fits well in this thread for other obvious reasons.  

IF ASO end up looking like this, things may be a bit more interesting. Hey, an extreme weather weenie can can always dream and cross his fingers. 

Yeah, a lot of my analogs showed a trough/weakness in the GOM and SE for hurricane season. 

I don't like this leading up to the Winter, we would need a nice, organic -NAO. 

There it is... -PNA failproof

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html 

I was once interested in the SOI*, which is the Southern Hemisphere's version of the NOI. The NOI is associated with Western drought, and has been in a cycle since 1995 possibly tied to ENSO etc. 

Yeah, we also have the feel of 2018 here where it was cold until about October, then it suddenly shifted for warm Winter. 

^

Western drought

Drought

Precip

The -2 in the central/core subsurface really feels a lot like 2017-18, today, at least. 

On 3/13/2021 at 8:22 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

In the beginning part of an underperforming solar cycle-ascension phase, we favor more La Nina's 

2009	-0.8	-0.8	-0.6	-0.3	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.7	1.0	1.4	1.6
Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2010	1.5	1.2	0.8	0.4	-0.2	-0.7	-1.0	-1.3	-1.6	-1.6	-1.6	-1.6
2011	-1.4	-1.2	-0.9	-0.7	-0.6	-0.4	-0.5	-0.6	-0.8	-1.0	-1.1	-1.0
2012	-0.9	-0.7	-0.6	-0.5	-0.3	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	-0.2

I really like this point for the next 5 years, although I wouldn't rule out 1 Super Nino. 

Man, what a cold July. For the whole country being above average, it sure has been really cold. I wonder if this the start of a pattern that will be the Winter. 

On 4/21/2021 at 8:53 PM, nrgjeff said:

I'll go warmer than normal. Oh wait normals change. Resurgent La Nina. Blowtorch!

Yeah, I think it will be +EPO