StormchaserChuck!

Subsurface is -4, surface is barely negative.. fwiw accelerating ENSO into the late year. 

fwiw

Well I know QBO was going to be perfect if we were to have an El Nino. 14/14 chance it would be negative as of the April analogs. 

Yeah, I believe -0.5 to 0.5 is the best. The rest is data or something. 

A lot of -NAO's in August lately.. 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019.. not necessarily -NAO Winter time

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I do have a question...why do la ninas repeat but el niños don't? Smh With this upcoming game winter (assuming it's nina as it may be), we've had 4 ninas in the last 6 years! And two instances of back-to-back...sheesh

That's a good question. I think normal SSTs are normal North/South Hemisphere across during El Nino's. 

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Bring it home for us, chuck. 

I would ideally love to see Arctic ice melt to 2.4 or something, so that we can have some good Canadian reaching storm threats.

La Nina is going to strengthen.. -4 in subsurface next few days. 

Gotta love the -PDO/+IO

N. Atlantic is great -NAO signal..  Weak La Nina coming. I like 95-96, but there are no Alberta Clippers, pattern is north 100-150 miles. (Actually 95-96 wasn't a La Nina in the subsurface, it was Neutral, 92-93 and 93-94 were El Nino in the subsurface)

I'd go with 20, into Nov, Dec

Good post, something to track, but nothing is showing up in the 500mb.

Aug 14 analogs

It's going to get warm, this one might overperform

Yeah, it seems like the whole Pacific Jet is drying up. 

Aug 12 of most active seasons

-AO persists

oh

nothing? PDO is like -4. La Nina is a face. Atlantic storms 20+ IS A slight NAO sigal, but correlated with -PNA/+EPO . It snows in the Winter. 

We last had a pretty good SOI/SST difference (higher SOI vs warmer SST, cold ENSO) in 2011-2012. 

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/soi_110w_drupal.gif

Nice little rebound huh

Not warm subsurface except inthe Spring, March-May there will be a warming trend. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't go La Nina though. 

42 minutes ago, jconsor said:

@StormchaserChuck! Very impressive subsurface cooling!  Have we ever seen -4C at subsurface with surface anomalies still in the neutral range (>-0.5C)?  

I've found that the subsurface has a higher immediate correlation to the N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern (0.90) vs surface ~(0.80), for example. 

If we hit -4, the over/under on storms this year is 20, I think. 

-PNA pops up at Day 5. Maybe we'll see -4 hit then. 

Come on -4.. I think it will happen. 

This is interesting.. I wonder if we are setting trend for Winter.

Analogs

Yeah, this +AO is lasting right into the Winter. 

That is one heck of a -PDO, image looks like it's the dominant pattern this Winter. Even if it's very cold, the surface should not be as cold. We also have a good +IO, I doubt we see dominant 4-5-6 MJO waves though. 

2019 and 2020 had a -NAO/-AO on July 27-Aug 6, but not years previous going back to 2013/2015 El Nino..

1998 and 1997 had a +NAO/+AO.. last years fwiw

-4 on here would be a really big deal for an active season (time sensitive)